Massachussetts Worries

As you know Survey USA has been one of the more reliable pollsters out there. In Massachussetts, before Super Tuesday, SurveyUSA had Hillary Clinton defeating Barack Obama 56-39, and the actual results were 56-41. SurveyUSA's latest polls have Obama doing well in head to head matchups against McCain. Although Hillary does better than Obama in states like Ohio, Missouri, and Florida, its pretty clear that Obama runs better overall. However, one thing that concerns me is that Obama has consistently performed poorly against McCain in Massachussetts.In the latest poll, he only leads 48-46, and last month he was down 50-45. Massachussets is supposedly the bluest of blue states, and despite the endorsements of Deval Patrick, Teddy Kennedy, and John Kerry, coupled with the fact that its an electorate that should have been favorable for him even in last month's primary, Obama continues to struggle here.

Could Obama's struggles be related to Deval Patrick's struggles as Governor? Deval Patrick basically ran the same campaign that Obama is running now, as Deval also relied on Obama's current campaign manager. The similarities between their campaign became apparent when it was learned that Obama borrowed heavily from his speeches.

The Massachussetts electorate has seen this same style of campaign and has even voted for it, yet once the hype died down, and reality set in, they have been disappointed with the results. I guess the larger point I am trying to make is what happens to Obama when the hype dies down?

Although he currently polls extremely well, I'm a little skeptical right now because Obama has largely been able to define himself. When outside parties jump in to define him negatively, and regardless of how you feel about Clinton, she has not attacked Obama the way the GOP will attack him,  will his current poll numbers stay the same? I'm a little worried about what his number s might look like once everything settles down.

Tags: Deval Patrick, Massachussetts (all tags)

Comments

8 Comments

Re: Massachussetts Worries

A lot of people worry about that, some sincerely, some not.

Anybody who is nominated is going to suffer negative press and be attacked. I think it's a fallacy to believe that being damaged in the past makes you immune from damage in the future. Politics does not work on the same rules as chicken pox.

That said, the question becomes, who is the better campaigner? Who speaks better, writes better, organizes better, adapts on the fly better? Who runs a leaner and better disciplined organization? The answers to those questions tell us which candidate is better positioned to whether the storms ahead.

by EMTP democrat 2008-02-24 11:22AM | 0 recs
MA will go to McCain if Obama nominated

I will start with repeating Obama's shit: superdelegates have to follow popular vote, means that 3 losers you mentioned above:
Kerry, Kennedy and Patrick have to vote for Hillary because she won MA easily.

Now: so far Patrick is the disaster in MA and any association with him means you (Obama) losing extra 5-7% easily.

2ndly: McCain, regardless of who is democratic nominee will have at least 40-45% of own supporters in this BLUEST state.

And finally, you will NEED to add Hillary supporters, many of whom will NOT support Obama after shitty campaign he ran against Clinton.
It means another 5-7% will vote for McCain. I am not in MA, but I will vote for McCain as soon as Democratic Party will nominate a Cult Leader.

Total of above means:
McCain can have anywhere between 50% and 59% of popular vote in MA if Obama is his opponent.
Guess what - Obama will lose General election, if he cannot win MA.

And don't forget: NY, NH & RI will do the same.
Sorry to mention this: FL&MI will be McCain country if you will not seat their delegates.
What it means for you Obama Idiots: Obama is recipe for disaster and YOU WILL HAVE IT.

Funny thing is that if FL&MI delegates seated, somehow all states above will be Hillary's easily.
But I assume that Obamacrats cannot comprehend this math.

by WeNeed3rdParty 2008-02-24 11:22AM | 0 recs
Re: MA will go to McCain if Obama nominated

Actually, Obama's campaign is saying that they want the super delegates to follow the pledged delegate vote.

So...if the pledged delegates go for obama, they don't want the superdelegates to overturn that.

by pastor john 2008-02-24 11:53AM | 0 recs
Re: MA will go to McCain if Obama nominated

so send email to Kennedy to withdraw his endorsement and if he will endorse Hillary we can talk again. Until than: go away. Just remember: MA can go for McCain if you will nominate Obama.

by WeNeed3rdParty 2008-02-25 01:56AM | 0 recs
Massachusetts Could Easily Go McCain over Obama

The Mass voters have seen what you get when you vote for someone who is about words (especially when somebody else's). They are not happy with the results. They may not agree with McCain but they won't like Obama.

I think RI is bluest of the blue and I could also see it going for McCain. I grew up in MA along RI and have a hard time seeing it voting Obama. BTW, that bluest of blue voted for Reagan. So don't be so certain of an Obama vote.

I think Obama could have problems throughout the Northeast other than Vermont.

by sinclair 2008-02-24 11:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Massachusetts Could Easily Go McCain over Oba
I agreed 110%.
But I am puzzled about Vermont: can you explain what is wrong with Vermont? Can we do something about it before March 4th?
by WeNeed3rdParty 2008-02-25 01:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Massachussetts Worries

On checking the CNN exit polls that ask who is the strongest leader Hillary wins every time. What this is saying to me is that this time around the American people do not think we need a strong leader. They think we need someone who promises to bring all sides together.

If I know anything about politics, this is going to be virtually impossible for any of the presidential candidate to accomplish. One of the major disappointments that is going to come if Sen. Obama wins the White House is that he has set expectations so high that not even he himself will be able to deliver.

by LadyEagle 2008-02-24 12:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Massachussetts Worries

Hillary Clinton has actually worked across the aisles as per her endorsement in the NY Times-  Obama only says he can.

The point of the Patrick plagiarism is more the question if a  campaign based on words (even if they're your own) and aspirations can endure after the election.  The answer is it cannot - Running as an outsider and change agent is all swell but the fact is-once in office one must work within the system to accomplish anything-that is the true lesson to learn from David Axelrod's client's interchangeable campaigns- He is a master and has run a diabolical campaign-

by ExperienceCounts 2008-02-24 12:48PM | 0 recs

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