In 2004 I had a the great pleasure of being posted to Las Vegas by the Kerry Campaign to work in the Nevada Democratic HQ as I speak English and Spanish. Here is my original post on DKos as I packed my bags in Sydney Australia and head to Las Vegas.

This time allowed me to meet and work with many key Nevada politicians including Shelley Berkley, Harry and Rory Reid, Ruben Kihuen and many others. We worked very closely with all the unions and union leaders. Therefore, I got a very first-hand training of how Las Vegas and Nevada politics work. Harry Reid was also running for re-election, and his office was right next to ours.

During this time I broke the Rethug Voter Registration Scandal on DKos in a diary entitled:Thousands of Nevada Dem Voter Registrations Destroyed by Repugs. This was my first diary ever on the Rec List and the fall out from that scandal resonated throughout Nevada and adjacent states.

So with this knowledge I am providing an analysis of why I feel Hillary will do well in Nevada and probably win the caucuses by 2-3%.  I am also a Hillary partisan, as most Kossacks will be aware.

Analysis below the fold.  Cross-posted on DKos

Hillary's Endorsements

NEVADA
Congresswoman Shelley Berkley
State Treasurer Kate Marshall
State Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus
State Senator Bob Coffin
Assembly Majority Leader John Oceguera
State Assemblyman William Horne
Assemblyman Ruben J. Kihuen
Assemblywoman Kathy McClain
Assemblyman Harry Mortenson
Assemblyman Morse Arberry
Assemblywoman Susan Gerhardt
Mayor of Lovelock, Lena Johnson
Former Congressman James Bilbray
Former Governor Bob Miller
Former Las Vegas Mayor Jan Jones
Rory Reid, Son of Harry Reid and top Democratic Official.

Unions who have endorsed (or parent bodies have endorsed)
AFCSME/ SNEA                            5,000
PAT Local 2001 (Henderson, NV)         370
PAT Local 159 (Henderson, NV)       2,026
IATSE Local 720 in Las Vegas            1,722
NALC Branch 2502 (Las Vegas, NV)        1,673
ATU Local 1637 (Las Vegas, NV)         131
ATU Local 1758 (Las Vegas, NV)          82
BAC Local 13 (Las Vegas, NV)                 984
SMW Council (Sparks, NV)                   9
SMW Local 88 (Las Vegas, NV)               1,001
IAM Lodge 845 (Las Vegas, NV)         760
UTU Local 1043 (Reno, NV)                 113
UTU Local 1117 (Las Vegas, NV)          63
UTU Local 1775 (Elko, NV)                  20
Nevada Classified School Employees Association, 3,400

Note:The Nevada State Education Association (NSEA) has not endorsed Hillary, but many in their leadership have and the vast majority of its 18,000 members are widely perceived to be behind Hillary.

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Las Vegas Sun

The endorsement list reads like a dream-list for Hillary. Shelley Berkley, Rory Reid and Dina Titus sit atop the Las Vegas Democratic machine which is a smaller version of the Chicago machine that was so effective for Obama in neighbouring Iowa. The combination of Berkley, Reid and Titus can be relied on to deliver big, and there is a strong chance they will. Likewise having the support of Assembly Majority Leader John Oceguera and Assemblyman Ruben J. Kihuen, two of Nevada's top Latino politicians can likewise be relied upon to make major inroads into the Latino community for Hillary. Ruben, who ran Kerry's Latino outreach campaign, is a major up-and-coming star in the Latin community. A young man blessed with extraordinary good looks and powerful speaking ability in both English and Spanish, he is widely looked to as the "Barack Obama" of Nevada politics.

Discussion of the Culinary Union. Of course the one star missing in the crown is the endorsement by the Culinary Union Local 226, which has gone to Barack Obama. While the Culinary Union is a major Nevada power broker no doubt, it is not as powerful as would appear from their claim of 60,000 members.  First they do not have 60,000 paid up members or even close. This boast, done by most unions on their website, refers to rolling membership over 3-5 years and to any retirees and often to family members on union pensions or support.

Lets look at an example, SEIU Nevada, which has also endorsed Obama, claims 17,000 members on their website, but when you look at their audited figures available on the AFL-CIO Website, they in fact have between 8,000-9,000 paid up members (less then half of their website boast):

SEIU Local 1107, 8,142
SEIU Local 135, 21

The Culinary Local 226 does not post its audited figures on the website (surprise, surprise) but their likely number of currently paid-up members will be more like 40,000 than 60,000.  Furthermore, the Culinary Union in Las Vegas, is one of the most transient unions in America as workers come and go from the Strip with huge and rapid turnover. When we were using Culinary union phone logs to call for Kerry, wrong numbers and false contacts were over 50%.  Also many Culinary members are greencard holders that are not able to vote. So when you wheedle the 60,000 number down to a real figure of eligible voters who even could possibly turn out, then you are more likely down to 25,000-30,000 members. These numbers are well matched by Hillary's Unions (I have used the audited accounts for her numbers above). Plus Hillary's unions with AFSCME, the Postal Workers, Brick Layers and School Employees are we are well-distributed across the state giving strong representation in each and every geographic area.

So at the end of the day Hillary's union members can almost match Obama's union numbers worker for worker and and have a far wider geographic spread, giving them a likely tie in union households if everyone follows their union script.  It will all be about turnout.

Effect of the Law Suit: While the lawsuit has likely galvanised some of the Culinary workers for Obama, it likewise has galvanised the other unions for Hillary and John Edwards who together would have more worker members in their combined union endorsements than Barack. Many of the other Nevada unions have historically expressed displeasure over the power of the Culinaries and how they have wielded it in the past, and this whole lawsuit dispute highlights this historic and on-going tension. This will likely lead to a high turnout on both sides of the fence, and guarantee Hillary and Obama a good block of votes. Also one of the main issues is that Las Vegas-based Culinaries got their own caucuses, but the the Upstate Culinaries (Reno, Tahoe, Carson City etc) did not, and this was apparently part of the original agreement that the big Upstate Casinos thought they would have.  So this leaves the Upstate Culinaries left out and more likely to break ranks and move to Hillary.

Conclusion with Unions: With the unions, it will all be about turn out and who can keep their ranks from breaking. Hillary's union ranks are already tight and not likely to break.  Obama's ranks are already fractured in Las Vegas and the Upstate along both Latino support lines and Upstate-Downstate lines, so Obama is on the back foot in terms of breakage with a slight front foot in terms of overall plurality numbers.

Upstate-Downstate Divide: Like in New York, Minnesota and Michigan, there is a big geographic divide in voting in Nevada. With the perception of Las Vegas getting all the attention in the south, and the more rural and sparsely distributed Upstaters tending to get left out.  Hillary is leading in the Upstate by huge margins both union and non-union especially in the rural areas. Look at Upper Michigan where over 20 counties voted Hillary 75+ when in the rest of the state she got 55%.  Hillary will clean up in the rural and remote areas, and it is these voters which will likely throw her over the top.

California Effect:  Always in Nevada presidential politics, hundreds/thousands of Californian partisans flood in just before the polls. Both Hillary and Obama have trucked in bus loads of people, and it is likely that they will have canceled each other out with equally good numbers in both camps.

Polls:
The polls are now slightly trending for Clinton after giving Obama slight leads right after Iowa. RCP has a good run down.  

Reuters/CSpan/Zogby, 01/15 - 01/17, 814 LV, Clinton +5.0
Clinton 42   
Obama 37   
Edwards 12   

Mason-Dixon, 01/14 - 01/16, 500 LV, Clinton +9.0
Clinton 41   
Obama 32   
Edwards 14

American Res. Group, 01/09 - 01/14, 600 LV, Clinton +3.0   
Clinton 35   
Obama 32   
Edwards 25

Research 2000, 01/11 - 01/13, 500 LV, Obama +2.0
Clinton 30
Obama 32   
Edwards 27

However, given the perils of Caucus predictions combined with the new caucus and format here, the polls are likely of limited use.

WHO WILL WIN NEVADA
Being as I did predict New Hampshire quite well between Hillary and Obama, and considering the above analysis, I will come out with a prediction, which this time is actually very close to where the polls are now.

HILLARY 40%
OBAMA 37%
EDWARDS 23%

And I will further predict that it will be a high turnout Upstate for Hillary which will clinch the state victory over a razor thin small Obama lead in Las Vegas and overall tie in Clark County. So I am out on the branch again.

Anyway I welcome all or any critiques of my critique.  I am no expert on Nevada, but I certainly enjoyed my time there and learning about the great Silver State.