Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

This title shouldn't be perceived as an attack on Michael.  I like Michael; I like his passion, and respect his analysis, and appreciate that he doesn't devolve into the namecalling that so frequently characterizes the Emanuel threads.  But I think his most recent diary, which I recommended, raises a very important question.  I don't agree with Michael's answer, but I think the issue deserves the kind of reasoned response that I will now attempt to provide.

What I will attempt to show in this diary is that, while I personally dislike Rahm Emanuel, he's doing a reasonably good job as DCCC head; that there are in fact circumstances in which it's appropriate for the DCCC to get involved in a primary; and that the Duckworth-Cegelis situation was a catastrophic blunder on Emanuel's part, but an anomaly, not a part of a larger trend as Michael sees it.  I'll explain on the flip.

Michael states his case succinctly in this comment:

I have a simple premise here, that was only reinforced through my direct experience with it:

Do you think it is right for the DCCC to get involved in contested Democratic primaries?

I do not.

Let the candidates run and stay the hell out of it. Don't send staff, provide media and PR people, shut down fundraising, refuse to return calls, or show favoritism to one candidate over another.

Let the voters, not the DCCC, pick who represents a district.

I agree, mostly.  I think if the DCCC got involved in most contested races, it would be a bad thing, and keep the voters both from choosing their preferred candidate and from picking the person who has the most authentic support in the district.  But I also believe that, as the representative of a party whose job is to put itself back in power and stay there (and whose goal we implicitly endorse by registering as Democrats), Emanuel has the responsibility of making sure candidates get elected.

This brings me to my first point: the DCCC absolutely has the right to recruit candidates into races where lesser candidates are already there. You'll ask me who's to say which candidate's better, and I'll get to that in a bit; but for now let's look at races where the "stronger" candidate is unquestionably obvious, and let's pick some examples from the bailiwick of our favorite incompetent party leader, RSCC head Liddy Dole.  Congressman Tom Osborne is unquestionably the most popular politician in the state of Nebraska -- not just the most electable or the most insider, but the most POPULAR.  He's certainly more popular than the three guys who are running against Dem Senator Ben Nelson right now: Don Stenberg, David Kramer, and Pete Ricketts.  But because Liddy Dole couldn't recruit him successfully into the Senate race, Tom Osborne is wasting his popularity on a fruitless battle with the incumbent GOP Governor, Dave Heineman, while Nelson skates to reelection.  Are you going to tell me that it's wrong for Liddy Dole to try to recruit Tom Osborne into the Senate race, or that he wouldn't be the strongest possible candidate against Nelson, or that Dole wouldn't have done a service both to her party and to the voters of Nebraska by putting up the strongest possible opponent against Nelson?  I think not.

Here's another example.  Dino Rossi is the most popular Republican in Washington; he just lost a really close race for Governor to Christine Gregoire.  Dole unsuccessfully recruited him to run against Senator Maria Cantwell, who won election last time by only 4,000 votes.  Rossi decided to run against Gregoire again in 2008 instead; some guy named McGavick is challenging Cantwell now.  Would it have been wrong of Dole to recruit Rossi into the race over McGavick?  Absolutely not -- in fact, it's her job -- to try to win as many Dem seats as she possibly can, with the strongest candidates she can possibly find.

Now, recruiting a candidate doesn't mean endorsing them, or doing anything for them other than asking them to enter the race.  And in many cases, it's better to let them fight it out with the other candidates than to step in -- most critically when the candidates are even and DCCC involveent would tip the balance.  It's not Emanuel's job to make one candidate beat another.  I'll say that again, because it's important: Emanuel's job is not to pick the Congressman or Congresswoman from a district in defiance of the voters.  However, I do believe there are two instances in which endorsement of a candidate in a contested primary makes sense, both for the DCCC and the voters.

First, endorsement makes sense when one candidate is truly unelectable. Don't get me wrong here, the threshold for "unelectable" is and should be really, really high -- Cegelis was certainly electable despite her progressive nature.  But when a candidate has lots of primary support but is really an extremist, endorsement of their opponent may be necessary to put a credible candidate on the ballot line.  For example, the 2001 Republican primary for Governor in New Jersey was between moderate former Governor Bob Franks and neoFascist Bret Schundler.  Schundler was a truly unelectable candidate who had neo-Nazi tendencies, but he had strong support in the primary.  The state party's failure to support Franks in the primary resulted in a Schundler victory; Schundler was then handily defeated by Jim McGreevey, and the Republicans have not won statewide elective office in New Jersey since.  Clearly, the Republicans would have been justified for the good of the party in intervening to help Franks beat Schundler.

Second, endorsement makes sense when one candidate is clearly going to beat another, but will have to spend money to pull out the victory. This situation occurs when one candidate is vastly ahead of the others but has to try to win by a huge margin anyway to look good in the primary.  For instance, when Jim Kolbe announced he was retiring his seat in AZ-08, a lot of bloggers said the Dem who was already running, Fighting Dem Jeff Latas, should have won the DCCC endorsement.  Latas is an awesome candidate and I like him a lot, but the man has not been able to raise $20,000 in almost a year of campaigning.  Emanuel took this into account when he recruited into the race State Senator Gabrielle Giffords, a telegenic centrist who raised a quarter million dollars in two weeks.  Should Emanuel have propped up a candidate who couldn't raise money in one of the most winnable open seats in the nation, or should he have made sure the voters of AZ-08 had a Dem nominee who could win in November?  I think he made unquestionably the right choice.  (The subsequent entry into the race of TV anchor Patty Weiss has complicated matters somewhat.)

Now, let's look at the preeminent instance in which DCCC recruitment and endorsement backfired -- that of IL-06.  Emanuel's immediate support of Duckworth, contrary to what people here have said, makes some sense.  Cegelis was having trouble raising money and was perceived as really liberal; in contrast, Duckworth was a centrist, a war hero, and looked great on paper.  To be fair to Emanuel, he also did not initially have the information on the ground that many of you did.  He could not have known from the get-go just how solid was Cegelis' grassroots support, because support like that chronically underperforms in polls.  In contrast, telling people the unknown Duckworth was a maimed war hero, which DCCC pollsters would have had to do because that was the only way to get a fair assessment of her ability to win the seat, would have artificially inflated her poll numbers.  The elected officials in Illinois, people like Durbin and Obama, were not behind Cegelis.  Should Emanuel have looked at the situation a little more carefully before taking his polling data to the bank?  Definitely.  But I think he's permitted the rookie mistake, because there was some basis for it.

But as time went on, it became clear that Emanuel had made a grievous error in judgment.  Cegelis was neither clearly going to lose nor ridiculously unelectable (he should have known the latter from her 2004 showing, but he ignored that result); in fact, she was surging.  Here is where Emanuel made his catastrophic error; instead of backsliding on the endorsement and waiting for the candidates to sort it out, he pulled in the big guns, raised tons of money for Duckworth, and pulled her over the finish line just ahead of Cegelis.  The weaker candidate prevailed solely because of DCCC help.

What should Emanuel have done in IL-06?  Let's look at a successful recruitment backslide, the 2004 Republican primary for Senate in South Carolina.  The seat was open, and the Dem candidate, Inez Tenenbaum, had the GOP running scared, so they recruited and endorsed moderate former Governor David Beasley.  Despite the fact that two other strong candidates, Congressman Jim DeMint and developer Thomas Ravenel, were in the race, the RSCC's move made sense: Beasley had held statewide office and was moderate and popular, while DeMint was a right-wing Congressman who supported a 23% universal sales tax and Ravenel a complete unknown.  But somewhere during the campaign, something changed.  DeMint's rabid anti-free-trade positions began to resonate with the voters; he began climbing the polls against Beasley; after the initial primary, which Beasley won, Ravenel endorsed DeMint for the runoff.  So the RSCC did what all party organizations should do when a candidate other than the one they prefer starts doing really well; they backed the hell off and let DeMint and Beasley fight it out on their own.  DeMint swamped Beasley in the runoff, and the RSCC jumped back in and raised tons of money for DeMint, who then beat Tenenbaum by ten points.

This is exactly what Emanuel should have done when Cegelis started to surge against Duckworth.  It's not his job to handhold an inferior candidate like Duckworth against a candidate who's got the hearts and minds of the people on her side.  When it became clear the race was going to be close -- as it obviously did given that Duckworth was polling the hell out of the district and not releasing her numbers -- he should have backed off, pulled his endorsement, and  offered immediate help to the winner.  Why didn't he?  Why did he hang tough with his chosen candidate when all signs pointed to her weakness?  My only explanation is pride, or a pigheadedness that he was right no matter what the experience on the ground indicated.  In any case, he managed to fuck up that district for a long time to come.  But it's important to note that Emanuel did this BECAUSE he didn't follow his own strategy, not because it's how he plays districts.  He messed up on this one big time, but not because he recruited or because he endorsed -- because he messed up on his calculations and refused to admit his mistake even when it was glaringly obvious.

In the case of NY-24 that Michael cites in his diary, the situation is completely different.  Arcuri is a resident of the district who's popular, electable, and elected; Roberts is a bit of a carpetbagger with great experience and ideas, but no name rec and no obvious popular support.  Sure, Roberts COULD be better-liked by the residents of NY-24 than Arcuri, but I do tend to assume that Rahm has access to poll numbers that the rest of us don't, and that the poll numbers show a pretty dramatic difference between Arcuri and Roberts.  Of course, those are the same polls that showed Duckworth up over Cegelis, but again that was an unusual situation -- Cegelis was a candidate with outstanding grassroots forces who's always done better than the polls expect, and Duckworth, with no name rec, would have been essentially push-polled with a description of her injuries and her service in order to procure the numbers Emanuel saw.  With Arcuri, no push-polling is necessary; everybody knows who Arcuri is and likes him, while Roberts is an unknown who has to dig himself out of a name-rec hole to even compete against Arcuri.  Unless evidence emerges that he has done so or is doing so, Roberts is exactly the kind of candidate that can fruitlessly draw off funds from Arcuri without standing a chance of beating him -- the kind of candidate Rahm should endorse against.  Arcuri is a good pick for a DCCC endorsement from all angles.

None of this is to say that the DCCC's formula is perfect; in fact, it's got some inherent biases.  The folks at the DCCC put too much emphasis on candidates being moderate; they tend to discount progressives with good ground games and lots of support, like Cegelis; they like establishment candidates over newcomers and out-of the box individuals.  There are warning signs in other races as well; to me, the DCCC's increasing support of Joe Sulzer in OH-18 over the equally-qualified Zack Space is not justified by any evidence I've seen (and any polls showing Sulzer ahead don't mean anything, because no one knows who either candidate is, even though they both hold elected office).  But by and large, Rahm has brought home the bacon for us.  He's given us candidates like Harry Mitchell in AZ-05, Ken Lucas in KY-04, Ron Klein in FL-22, Patsy Madrid in NM-01, and Angie Paccione in CO-04 -- people that wouldn't have run without significant support from the DCCC and whose candidacies put previously safe Republican seats in play.  Like I said, I don't like the guy, but he's done his job, giving us one of the strongest challenger slates in recent memory.

And I strongly disagree with the assertion that Rahm's doing this just so he can build a personal power base in the House.  That attack has merit against Schumer (think the Hackett-Brown race in Ohio) but none against Emanuel.  Why?  Because if Emanuel really wanted to build up personal loyalty among new Dem Congresspeople, he'd get involved in races like MD-3, where at least five Dems have raised six figures for a safe Dem open seat, or OH-13, where the latest poll puts the top three Dems exactly tied in the primary.  Here are two races where the outcome doesn't matter, where any of the candidates can easily win the seat, and where Emanuel could really make his mark by intervening.  And what's he doing?  Just what a conscientious DCCC head should do -- he's ignoring them and focusing on the races that matter to the ultimate goal of taking back Congress.

Furthermore, even a candidate who goes strongly against the tide of the DCCC's biases can gain critical support from Emanuel when she proves that she's got some of her own.  Why else would the DCCC be so strongly supporting Francine Busby in CA-50?  Even a liberal college professor can catch the DCCC's notice when she raises $300,000 in a single quarter.  She did it the old-fashioned way, by bringing in the cash, and Emanuel didn't even bother recruiting against her -- he'd found his candidate.

Rahm Emanuel is a DC insider hack, but he's doing his job, and doing his best to help us take back Congress for the American people.  His terrible mistake in IL-06 shouldn't make us lose sight of all the good he's done as DCCC head, or of how much he's had to do with the current good situation in which the Dem House slate finds itself today.

Tags: House, IL-06, NY-24, rahm emanuel (all tags)

Comments

102 Comments

Yes, that DID take me four hours to write

Going to nap now, though I'll be back later to answer comments.

by Nonpartisan 2006-04-30 09:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Yes, that DID take me four hours to write

Four hours well spent in a meaningful discussion that needs to happen.

by michael in chicago 2006-04-30 10:23AM | 0 recs
Thanks, Michael

It never fails to astound me how pointless and sophomoric so much of the discussion around here is.  That's why, though I've been a registered lurker around here for a LONG time, I rarely post anything.

So -- for starters, how do you feel about the sort of "party endorsement" that Angelides just won in California -- essentially a caucus-style shindig where the candidates seek the support of the party faithful?  Personally, I feel it serves no useful purpose that a primary couldn't accomplish.

by Nonpartisan 2006-04-30 10:52AM | 0 recs
um

My comment about the pointlessness of discussion here kind of got left off in the middle...what I was trying to say was that it seems you've been trying to discourse on a higher level than most of your critics excluding the front-pagers.  That frustrates and disheartens me -- I've never understood why the community aspect of other major blogs has always been so seriously lacking here.

by Nonpartisan 2006-04-30 10:54AM | 0 recs
Re: um

It hasn't been lacking here always, or in the blogs in general, nor do I think MyDD is any more or less civil than other "major" blogs like dKos. The reason I stay here and rarely post at dKos anymore is that the level of discourse here is usually pretty good.

It just seems to be going that way in general as more people read blogs, people realize the influence blogs can have and try to derail/manipulate/steer the direction of that influence, and the "powers that be" - who ever that is at any given moment - try to exert influence over the discussion that takes place in the Blogosphere.

As long as blogging is so easily done anonymously, with almost zero ability to trace who is writing what for whom, it is open to such influence - be it a person who wants to be a bully on-line, a political operative who wants to undermine a campaign of a rival, or just a person who hasn't yet reached the maturity level to understand that both sides of an argument can have true believers and that doesn't make one side populated by idiots or intellectually inferiors. A "pissing match" of intellect is hardly ever productive as I've learned a great deal from people with PhD's as well as 7th grade educations.

The trend that concerns me most is the "attack the author" of a post of comment approach, rather than critique of one's argument in the post or comment. This seems to be a fairly easy way to cast doubt on a topic or point raised, and quickly derail the discussion, by turning the discussion into one of the author's motives rather than the validity of his/her point. This is the trend I would most like to see stomped into submission through troll rating anyone who does it consistently.

But since the blogs are often personality driven (i.e. there are people who always recommend my diaries, and others who hate my work), the "mob rule" mentality that can take place makes this highly difficult. Add to this the imperfection of a medium in which discussion and debate take place with no social cues, and often happens in writings done first draft without a spell checker, and you can see the possiblities for misunderstanding are endless.

by michael in chicago 2006-04-30 03:10PM | 0 recs
For starters

I don't have any understanding or knowledge of the Angelides campaign or the caucus system you ask about, so I can't comment on the specifics of the event you ask.

My general philosphy is that any system that limits the choices given to the voters or seeks to impose an outside 'gatekeeper' or 'kingmaker' - be that a person or an organization - limits the democratic process, the core principle of which is "one person, one vote."

If candidates in primaries are put through a process where one is endoresed by those outside the local party structure, that adds political advantage and leads to this person or organization doing the endorsing to have undue influence on the process, limiting the ability of the electorate to effectively chose their government.

Of course this happens all the time, and endorsement seeking is big business in campaigning. It leads to media, money and support.

But I am of the opinion that Federal and State Party organizations and elected officials should remain neutral during the primary process. The ability to add the advantages of incumbency to a chosen challenger again removes the choice of the local electorate to pick who governs them by falsely "letting the voters decide" when one candidate is given a soapbox and another given a 200 watt megaphone.

For example, my post on the DCCC's involvement in primaries yesterday. It is Rahm's job to recruit candidates to run for office. Great. Do that. But there is a difference between recruitment and full blown support. If a candidate has to be promised to be annointed to run, witht he full backing of the DCCC and national party donors, then the process again offers a false choice to the electorate in which one candidate gets the national donor base, the top staff with connections, and the intangeble benefits of incumbency of those who smile for the camera in their political ads.

Recruit candidates. Then get the hell out of the race until the primary is over. If not, then the real question of who is chosing our government - the people or those in power - is a real question we need to ask.

Again I'm making an ideological argument, but as I said yesterday "what is" will never change if it is not questioned, but instead perpetuate itself. Is there anyone who thinks our government couldn't use some improving or that the way in which we chose our elected officials doesn't lead to the problems we now see in Congress? Business as usual has lead to corruption.

by michael in chicago 2006-04-30 03:33PM | 0 recs
Re: For starters

You make your argument very well, and I agree with you in principle.  The difficulty is in trying to get an ideologically pure party elected to Congress.  Individual candidates like Cegelis, given a fair shake, can certainly get elected against the partisan tide, as can rich candidates like Ned Lamont who can afford not to take orders from the party leaders -- but what about the masses of fantastic candidates who will simply never get a second look because they have neither the party imprimatur nor the appeal to crossover voters.  In all honesty, the problem is not at Rahm Emanuel's door, but at that of the voters; fantastic ideological candidates like Chuck Pennacchio in PA-Sen and Barbara Radnofsky in TX-Sen stand no chance with an electorate even when people know who they are.

Radnofsky's case is particularly illustrative.  Here you have a candidate with no DCCC-backed opponent, whose only primary foe in fact was an obvious Republican plant who did no campaigning and was running on the fact that he shared the famous name of Gene Kelly.  The DCCC didn't particularly help Radnofsky, but they certainly did not lift a finger to hurt her -- they didn't call her donors and tell them to give to Kelly, or campaign with her opponent.  They stayed out of the primary, and Kelly forced Radnofsky into a runoff, which she subsequently won with less than 60% of the vote.  Do you consider Kelly's challenge a reason the DCCC should have stayed out of the primary?  Honestly I don't consider the man a Democrat and would have been happy to see Emanuel help Radnofsky limp across the finish line -- but that's all she would have been able to do without DCCC support.  Radnofsky raised over $40,000 and spent it all against a nobody with a famous name, and barely -- barely got enough name-rec to beat the guy.  There's no way someone like this can win in the general.

Now Radnofsky is a fantastic candidate, honest and sincere and progressive.  But she can't raise money and she can't resonate with voters, and nothing the DCCC is going to do for or against a candidate like that is going to make much difference.  True progressives like Hackett, Cegelis, and Busby who can raise mounds of cash are truly rare.  If we're going to win back Congress with the Dems, we have to support people we don't like or respect -- people like John Salazar, Melissa Bean, and yes, even Bob Casey.  Casey is really odious even to a solid Dem supporter like me -- but again, nothing the DSCC does or doesn't do for or against him is going to change the fact that he's going to be the nominee.  (Were they wrong to chase Hafer out of the primary?  Definitely -- but that's another story, and has to do with my problems with Schumer.)  I'll be straight-up on this one: I hate Casey, but I do not want him to have to spend one cent defending himself against people like Sandals and Pennacchio when he could spend that cent beating the infinitely more odious Rick Santorum and his indescribably odious Party.

My argument boils down to this: I believe it's realistic to expect that individual honest progressives can get elected to office; I don't believe it's realistic to expect that a whole party full of them can get elected.  As it's more important to me right now to get Dems back in power than to get honest progressives in power, I'll back the party machinery where a slate of candidates needs to get elected (with obvious critiques relating to progressives like Busby and Cegelis who are individually super-electable).  On the other hand, I'll push like heck for the one race where an individual honest progressive's election really can and will make all the difference: the Presidency.  I'll back the Deans and the Feingolds till I'm blue in the face, while supporting the less-idealistic forces of Rahm Emanuel and the DCCC (though not without criticism).

by Nonpartisan 2006-04-30 05:33PM | 0 recs
Good points

I don't know the answer either. Ideological purity is a myth, and a "pure" party is not anywhere near reality. So you are definately correct there I'm afraid.

But this is the bit that catches my attention:

but what about the masses of fantastic candidates who will simply never get a second look because they have neither the party imprimatur nor the appeal to crossover voters.  In all honesty, the problem is not at Rahm Emanuel's door, but at that of the voters; fantastic ideological candidates...

I'm not sure I agree completely with this assumption that ideological candidates, because they are ideological, can't win. Sure in some cases you are probably correct. But my assertion is that who makes that call? Who decides who is the "right" candidate for the district? A small group of beltway Democrats, basing their endorsements on FEC bottom lines and political litmus tests, or the voters or the district?

Do we allow those who "know better" to chose candidates for us who conventional wisdom says will attract "cross over" voters and win, or do we allow candidates to run in the primary and stand up for Democratic values, helping to define the GOP through opposition and standing for the common good, showing what the Democratic brand stands for?

If a Chuck Chuck Pennacchio can win his democratic primary over a candidate who appeals to cross over voters more than Democrats, then the people of the district have elected Pennacchio as their Democratic nominee. It is at this point that the DCCC should get involved, raise money, provide resources and staff, rather than deny the Democrats of the district their opportunity through their vote to pick who they want to represent them.

Again, an ideological argument that may lead to short term loss. But in the long term it builds the party. It builds the party by defining our brand. It builds the party by showing people what Democrats stand for. It builds the party by getting people on the ground involved and active behind someone they elected, not someone chosen for them.

If the district will not support a candidate like Pennacchio, then he won't win regardless.

Naturally there needs to be a happy medium between ideological purity and political manipulation. But my concern is that it seems Democrats are absolutly so scared of losing that a "win at all costs" attitude is developing and influening the way we chose candidates. This is hurting the Democratic brand, and doesn't take the long term needs of party building into consideration. It makes us less effective as a part as people don't know what we stand for other than not being Republican.

There is not easy answer to this. Thanks for this post and the discussion you've helped to start.

by michael in chicago 2006-04-30 06:08PM | 0 recs
Strongest reason to have backed Cegelis?

To me this argument is the strongest reason Rahm should not have invested so much in defeating Cegelis. In an average year, IL-6 will go Republican. In a spectacular year for Democrats, it could go Democratic for either Cegelis or Duckworth. Each camp has respectable arguements for why their candidate had the better chance of winning at the margin (e.g., if 2006 turns out to be a very good but not spectacular year for the Dems).

HOWEVER, if Duckworth loses, IL-6 is back to square one. She is not going to start anything at the grassroots level that future candidates can build on. Cegelis, by contrast, does excite the activist base to come out, canvass, phone bank, talk to their neighbors, etc. etc. etc. Even in defeat, she would have created a great foundation and maybe even helped other candidates down the ballot in local races. DuPage County currently has NO elected Democrats (other than to Party specific offices, e.g., Democratic Committeeman). Working with PDA, as Christine now is, she may still help other candidates, but their success, if it comes, will be no thanks to Tammy Duckworth or Rahm Emanuel.

by Jim in Chicago 2006-04-30 06:51PM | 0 recs
Impressive analysis

I have argued similarly that the DCCC had every right to recruit Duckworth but then let her win or lose on her own merit so that the stronger candidate actually emerges from the primary.

As for why Rahm sank so much resources behind Tammy: he wanted to win the IL-6 primary in the worst way -- and that's exactly what he did.

A Duckworth supporter recently told me that he sees no evidence that Duckworth is doing anything other than following her DC masters' explicit instructions -- something he hoped would change after the primary. So while Kos goes around promoting CTG, he is on record as backing a campaign that is the poster child for how NOT to do things according to the book!

While I agree with most of your analysis about how the DCCC should operate, I am not so ready to consider IL-6 an anomaly -- on the part of Rahm AND/OR those who followed him to the hilt. A LOT of people lost my trust over this one. As our President says, "Fool me once, shame on... shame on... you. Fool me twice.............. shows you can't get fooled again!"

by Jim in Chicago 2006-04-30 11:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Impressive analysis

Thanks for your comment, Jim.  I'd give Kos a pass on this one -- he was up to his ears in work when most of this went down and didn't actually back any of the candidates, though I would have liked to see him come down solidly behind Cegelis.

The problem is that Rahm terribly misjudged the Cegelis campaign, something he's prone to doing again in similar situations (see Zack Space, for instance).  He really needs to learn from this experience and be more supportive of the grassroots and netroots.  Unfortunately, there's no sign that he's learned anything from what happened.

by Nonpartisan 2006-04-30 11:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Kos

Actually, his posts were increasingly pro-Duckworth as the primary drew near. He even saw fit to insult me during one exchange.

A friend told me that in private correspondence, Markos was far less guarded and strongly touted Duckworth over Cegelis.

So I'm afraid I can't really give him a pass unless and until he acknowledges that how Rahm handled this was not ideal. His posts lately have been on the order of, "you lost get over it" -- as though we should not admit to and learn from our mistakes!

by Jim in Chicago 2006-04-30 12:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Kos

Jim is correct.  If you review his diaries, he did post on Cegelis and Duckworth immediately after Duckworth's announcement.  Although he claimed he was neutral in the diary, his comments in the thread were much more favorable to Duckworth.  And he also insulted those who criticized Duckworth's residency in Illinois 08.  That he posted a diary, engaged in debate with Jim in Chicago, insulted those who disagreed with his position and read local blogs on the race, which he cited in his multiple diaries on Illinois 06, reveals a certain amount of involvement.  He was also a resident of this district when he was a suburban teenager volunteering for Henry Hyde, the Republican Congressman Cegelis essentially retired in 2004.  No, Markos Moulitsas Zuniga should not be exonerated for his support of Ladda Duckworth both on his website and on Air America Radio with Sam Seder, and I believe he should explain to everyone exactly how he was involved with this race if he desires to regain the trust of those who might visit his and other websites.  And perhaps he should answer the very simple question Jim in Chicago has propounded since the Illinois 06 primary: How is the Duckworth campaign not an example of everything the book he coauthored ostensibly opposes?  

Regarding those who volunteered or who were involved with the Duckworth campaign, I find it somewhat humorous that only now they understand that she was merely following Rahm Emanuel's instructions.  Was that not obvious from the moment she announced her candidacy in DC?  So much for critical thinking, DB.

by illinois062006 2006-04-30 01:02PM | 0 recs
Thanks for the backup

You put the argument against Kos's actions in this race far more cogently than I have done so far.

One correction: the friend who backed Duckworth did no work for her campaign as far as I know. He merely wrote the occassional blog post for why he thought she would be the better candidate to oppose Roskam -- a position I respect even while I disagree. And, as I said, he has been disappointed at her and her campaign's inability so far to evolve into the kind of candidacy that will win in the fall absent a complete tidal wave for the Democrats (one that would just as easily have swept Cegelis to victory).

by Jim in Chicago 2006-04-30 02:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Kos

Fair enough.  You have some good points here.

Out of curiosity, when did Kos ever directly engage Jim in Chicago?  I didn't know Jim even posted at Kos.

by Nonpartisan 2006-04-30 05:34PM | 0 recs
You can read our exchange in all its gory here:

http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2006/3/ 2/123639/9698/19#19

by Jim in Chicago 2006-04-30 10:45PM | 0 recs
don't talk against Iraq
It will make Emanuel look like a complete fool for voting for the war.
by Bob Brigham 2006-04-30 11:37AM | 0 recs
Re: don't talk against Iraq

Rahm wasn't in Congress at the time of the vote to authorize the war.

by Jonathan Singer 2006-04-30 12:17PM | 0 recs
Re: don't talk against Iraq
Whoops, meant to say that the ballerina was so insecure that he took the DLC's position of supporting the war on Iraq in the hopes that nobody would point out his small man's disease.
by Bob Brigham 2006-04-30 12:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

Terrific post.  As I said in my responses yesterday, IL-06 was a DCCC mistake but you cannot extrapolate what happened there to every other race in the country.  In NY-24, it is pretty clear to me that Arcuri is the right choice for all the reasons you listed.  I am active in politics locally and I am very biased to the people who do the hard work at home over carpetbaggers who drop in after having been gone for years and decide to come home to run for office.  In NY-24 that is clearly Arcuri and in IL-06 it was Cegelis.  Just because Emmanuel was wrong in IL-06 does not mean he is wrong in every race.

Also, the premise that the DCCC was recruiting against Roberts is wrong.  The DCCC was recruiting the strongest candidate to run against State Sen Maier, who will be a formibable Repub candidate.  They see Arcuri as this candidate and I tend to agree.  No one is saying that Roberts cannot run and he clearly will continue to stay in the race.  

This area is trending our way but it is historically Repub so this seat is not a slam dunk by any stretch.  Having lured Arcuri into the race, the DCCC is providing support such as fundraising lists, staff resumes and political contacts.  As has been noted, all of this stuff is also available to the other Dem candidates in the race.  There will be a primary in Sept and we will see if Arcuri is the strong candidate he is thought to be.

by John Mills 2006-04-30 11:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

Having lured Arcuri into the race, the DCCC is providing support such as fundraising lists, staff resumes and political contacts. As has been noted, all of this stuff is also available to the other Dem candidates in the race.

I'm really pretty doubtful about this from direct experience. If you honestly think the DCCC is going to share lists of contacts and donors with Roberts, you are kidding yourself. Maybe they'll send him resumes of staffers. It's always good to have moles.

Just curious upon what you base your endorsement of Arcuri on. You say you are active locally. Is this your district or area? From what I've researched it seems Arcuri is poplar in one part of a very large district due to being the DA, and having won election, although he ran unopposed in half of his victories. The district seems to vote less party line, and had a somewhat "liberal" republican for a long time as their Rep.

Roberts is hardly a carpetbagger to the area. If one is going to run for office, I don't understand why "comming home" to run makes one a carpet bagger. If I was to run I'd want to run where I grew up, went to school, worked, and owned property - even if my eventual career had taken me out of the area for part of my life. The commonality of life experiences with one's constituents doesn't leave one's decision making filter.

Actually, in my opinion Arcuri is the "easy" choice for the DCCC. He's an elected official who will toe the party line, and is the DA in the county with the most Democrats. That's not an endorsement as much as it is playing the odds. But just like I said often about IL-06, my district wasn't the couple of affluent communities convential wisdom made it out to be. I suspect this may be true of the this district as well.

I don't know who the better candidate is as this isn't my district. But based on my past experience in IL-06 with the DCCC's choices, I'm not so easily convinced that their choice is automatically better in the general just because they say so. In fact, it leads me to question their choice more the more, as if Arcuri was the hands down strongest candidate, then they wouldn't have to provide the support they are to his campaign.

Just stay out of the district and let the two compete in the primary. Let the voters decide, not Beltway Democrats.

by michael in chicago 2006-05-01 03:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

I used to live in the neighboring district and now live downstate.  I am not an expert on the district but have spent time there and have a good feel for it.  Both Arcuri and State Sen Ray Meier, the likely R candidate, are from Oneida County.  Sherry Boehlert was the Oneida County Exec before being elected to Congress.  Carrying Oneida is very important to winning this seat.

I like Arcuri because he has a strong record of serving the people in the district, he has a base of support, and he has shown he knows how to get elected.  Being unopposed for re-election is a strength, not a weakness.  Weak candidates don't run unopposed.  THe DCCC recruited him because they saw these strengths.  The DCCC did not create these strengths.

Les Roberts has an interesting resume but as I said the other day I see nothing in it to say he would be a good candidate for Congress.  You can't do anything in Congress if you don't elected.  

I respect your views but we see the world very differently.  It appears you look at everything through the prism of IL-06.  I want to win back Congress and understand that this seat is not a slam dunk.  I just think Arcuri is a better candidate.  As I keep saying the primary voters will decide in Sept.

by John Mills 2006-05-01 04:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

You can think Arcuri is a better candidate. You have a better understanding of this district than I, and a better frame of reference. And I do view events through the filter of my experience. That is both good and bad, and one of the reasons I'm not arguing much about candidates in a race in another district.

It does look at if Roberts will be able to compete financially with Arcuri, so the voters should have a better understanding of the two candidates. Thanks for the answer.

by michael in chicago 2006-05-01 05:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

On the flip side, carpetbaggers aren't always bad or unelectable.  New Yorkers have definitely warmed up to Hillary, for instance, and I think Jim Webb is getting some real traction in VA-Sen.

by Nonpartisan 2006-04-30 11:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

meant as a reply for John Mills above -- sorry

by Nonpartisan 2006-04-30 11:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

Good point although I would have preferred Rep. Nita Lowey in 2000 and I like Hillary a lot.  

by John Mills 2006-04-30 11:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

The "carpet bagger" title needs to be used with care as well. The issue with Duckworth wasn't that she was a carpet bagger. It was that she had no real ties to the district. It wasn't wher her What I see with Roberts is that he has real ties to the district, but has worked internationally. I don't think this makes him a carpet bagger, but does add to his credentials for Congress.

by michael in chicago 2006-04-30 03:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

What are ties to the district?  Having once lived or grown up there?   Roberts has clearly been gone a long time and has come back b/c he wants to run for Congress.  Nothing illegal about that but let's call it what it is.

I admire working internationally and it is really nice that Les Roberts decided to do it.  However, I also admire people who work locally to serve people which Arcuri has done.  Plus, Arcuri has proven he can get elected DA multiple times which means he has popular support.  

I asked this yesterday and will ask it today - what is the problem with Arcuri other than the DCCC recruiting him?  I have looked at both Roberts and Arcuri's websites and I can't find much difference on issues.  As I have said repeatedly, just because Emmanuel was wrong on IL-06 doesn't mean he is wrong in all races.  Seems to me like he has gotten this one right but that will be up to the primary voters to decide in Sept.

by John Mills 2006-04-30 08:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

One other thought - being a member of Congress is a weird dicotomy of voting on national issues and serving the local interests of your district.  People on blogs are driven much more by national and international issues but the average voter is driven much more by local issues hence Tip O'Neill's statement "All politics is local."  

In most House races and years, local issues will trump national issues.  2006 may be different - we'll see.  This and money are the main reasons it so difficult to beat incumbents.  I'd bet a lot of money that most voters will find Arcuri's experience as the local DA much more appealing than Roberts experience in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Congo.  Roberts may bring a unique view to Congress but that is not how most voters make their decisions.  

by John Mills 2006-04-30 08:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

See my comment upthread about ties to the district. I don't think  calling someone who has real ties to the area a carpetbagger is "calling it what it is" let alone accurate here.

by michael in chicago 2006-05-01 03:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

I keep asking you what are ties to the district?  When was the last time the guy really lived in the district?  Owning a house in the district you haven't lived in for years is not the same as living and working day after day year after year with the people you want to represent.

by John Mills 2006-05-01 04:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

I agree with you about working and living in a district recently. But the "carpet bagger" label is a strech too. Keyes was a carpet bagger. He had no ties, no connection, nothing in common with residents. Roberts has been away doing very high profile and important work, much of which has given him experience on an national scale. What I'm saying is that's not a bad thing, and doesn't make him a carpet bagger. Not remotely.

by michael in chicago 2006-05-02 02:33PM | 0 recs
Well

The DCCC and the DSCC's jobs are to support the candidate who has the best chance of winning. For example I disagreed with how they handled IL-6. Cegelis deserved better. They should have stayed out that one. But then I look at the PA Senate between Casey, Pennachio, and Sandals. Even though they have ardent supporters here, it's clear that Pennachio and Sandals do not have what it takes to win. That they have polled in single digits indicates that DSCC was right there. Now, in regard to Ohio, I don't like how they treated Hackett. Hackett deserved better.

So honestly the DSCC and the DCCC aren't going to "play fair". If they honestly think Candidate X will be much better than Candidate Y, even if Y is already in the race, they will go to the mat for Candidate X. Their job is to win pure and simply. They are not going to mince and waste time on candidates who cannot (in their estimations) win.

I don't agree with all of their choices. I do think it would be best if they stayed out of some primaries, but it truly depends on the mechanics of each race. While I agree that they should not have meddled in IL-6 and in the OH Senate race, I do agree with their actions in PA.

by jiacinto 2006-04-30 12:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Well

For the PA Senate race, the question for the DSCC wasn't to chose between either Casey, Pennacchio, or Sandals.  It was to recruit Casey and then push everyone else OUT of the primary.  So yea, they did interfere too much in that race.  Why did the DSCC feel the need to clear the way for Casey and not let anyone else run?

by Fran for Dean 2006-04-30 02:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Well

These other candidates DID run, so I'm not sure I take your point.  As to why Casey has garnered far more support than them, perhaps it's b/c he's the only announced candidate that has held any significant elected office before.  

If you're referring to other candidates that chose not to run, I don't see how the DSCC or Governor Rendell convincing the Barbara Hafers or Joe Hoeffel's of the world to sit this one out constitutes undue interference.  That just constitutes good coordination at the State and National level.  If you had endured Santorum as your senator for as long as I have, you might appreciate an approach that is focused solely on defeating the republican.    

by HSTruman 2006-04-30 03:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Well

I'd be careful about Rendell.  His is the kind of machine that really, really scares me -- the Boss Tweed kind of machine, where he threatens people and does people favors in exchange for votes and stuff.

I mean, I support the guy totally over Swann, but I'm very uncomfortable being in the same party with his tactics.

by Nonpartisan 2006-04-30 05:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Well

Exactly. Pennachio and Sandals were the candidates who refused to be pushed out. Hafer and Hoeffel were two who were pushed, IIRC.

by Mary Mary 2006-05-01 05:55AM | 0 recs
Well

The DCCC and the DSCC's jobs are to support the candidate who has the best chance of winning. For example I disagreed with how they handled IL-6. Cegelis deserved better. They should have stayed out that one. But then I look at the PA Senate between Casey, Pennachio, and Sandals. Even though they have ardent supporters here, it's clear that Pennachio and Sandals do not have what it takes to win. That they have polled in single digits indicates that DSCC was right there. Now, in regard to Ohio, I don't like how they treated Hackett. Hackett deserved better.

So honestly the DSCC and the DCCC aren't going to "play fair". If they honestly think Candidate X will be much better than Candidate Y, even if Y is already in the race, they will go to the mat for Candidate X. Their job is to win pure and simply. They are not going to mince and waste time on candidates who cannot (in their estimations) win.

I don't agree with all of their choices. I do think it would be best if they stayed out of some primaries, but it truly depends on the mechanics of each race. While I agree that they should not have meddled in IL-6 and in the OH Senate race, I do agree with their actions in PA.

by jiacinto 2006-04-30 12:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Well

Regarding the Ohio Senate Race-(Hackett)

What you failed to mention is that Sherrod Brown probally would have won the Democratic Nomination. Brown was the Senior Congressman from the Cleveland Area- Most of Democratic Primary Voters of Ohio are located. Brown was a former Statewide Elected Official of Ohio- Two Term Secretary of State and Brown is a strong liberal voting record. Sherrod Brown would have been the nominee regardless of whether or not the DSCC got involved in the race. The DSCC wanted to aviod a tough primary battle and help Democrats focus their attention in defeating Mike DeWine.

By the way- I believed Hackett was a stronger general election canididate than Brown based on the fact Hackett comes from the Cincinatti Exurbs and he performed well- Hackett got 48% of the vote in Special Election US House Race in Solid Republican Congressional District.

by CMBurns 2006-05-01 03:54AM | 0 recs
The DSCC should have encouraged

Brown to keep his promise to Hackett. It was Brown's decision NOT to run that caused the DSCC to recruit Hackett in the first place. And I agree that Hackett would be the stronger general election candidate. In OH-2 he didn't just get Republicans to vote for him, he got them to campaign for him!

But instead, the DSCC pushes Hackett out. Now the latest poll, featured on "Breaking Blue", has DeWine up 11 points over Brown. What a wasted opportunity this may turn out to be -- quite possibly the race that loses us the chance to retake the Senate. Well, as long as Sherrod Brown's ego remains intact, I guess that's the important thing. /snark

by Jim in Chicago 2006-05-01 08:09AM | 0 recs
Re: The DSCC should have encouraged

Brown was going to win the Democratic Nomination for the 2006 Ohio US Senate Race- due to his strength in Cleveland and his strong ties to Labor regardless of DSCC involvement

I find it very hypocritical that you liberal bloggers support Cegelis over Duckworth in the IL-6 House Race due to the fact Cegelis was a local candidate while Duckworth is a political novice with a strong military record.

But in the Ohio Senate Race- You criticize the DSCC for helping Sherrod Brown-who is more experienced and more progressive candidate and has close ties to the Ohio Democratic Party.

Before Brown's flip flops- Brown was the DSCC first choice- Brown said no. Ryan said no- Hackett was available. Brown changed his mind.

Regarding the recent poll that has Brown trailing DeWine by 11 points- DeWine's poll numbers are below 50%. OtherOhio Polls had the race a statistical tie or a Slight DeWine lead.

Sherrod Brown would have won the Democratic Nomination regardless of whether or not the DSCC helped or hurt Hackett.

by CMBurns 2006-05-01 10:28AM | 0 recs
Silly me

I thought when a man shakes another man's hand and looks him in the eye and says "I'm not running, good luck." he should hold to that promise. The only reason Brown changed his mind was that a poll came out later showing Hackett beating DeWine.

Because Brown would be heavily favored to win the primary, Hackett had no interest in running UNTIL Brown bowed out.

How you find an analogy with the Duckworth/Cegelis situation here is beyond me!

by Jim in Chicago 2006-05-01 11:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Silly me

Your frustatration should be towards Sherrod Brown not the DSCC.

by CMBurns 2006-05-01 11:43AM | 0 recs
Brown enlisted the DSCC's help

in getting Hackett out of the race. The same people who called Hackett to get him to jump in, called him to insist that he jump back out. It was in fact BROWN they should have told: "Hey, you had your chance. Hackett waited for your decision. You told Hackett to go for it. You can't go back on that now."

Instead they put pressure on HACKETT to drop. So yeah, I do find the DSCC culpable here.

The icing on the cake was that Rahm Emanuel couldn't understand why Hackett refused to jump over to the OH-2 Congressional race. The reason which didn't compute with Rahm, Schumer et al: Hackett had given those running for the Dem nomination to take on Schmidt his word that he wouldn't.

You can see how people like Emanuel and Schumer would be confused by such an explanation.

by Jim in Chicago 2006-05-01 11:52AM | 0 recs
Worthless 2 cents

My sense in this is not so much that the central committees or national parties should stay out of the local races. Even in the primaries I think that they often should not. Nor do I think that they are solely trying to consolidate their power base (at the expense of the "true" Democratic party).

No, I think that what they are doing is what they actually believe is right and best for the Democratic party and for the American people. What needs to happen is for the netroots/grassroots to convince the central committees to follow our lead rather than taking one of their own.

Now, that's the hard part.

by ltsply2 2006-04-30 01:10PM | 0 recs
Thank You!


I have been waiting for a blogger to stick up for Rahm and the DCCC for a long time now. Not that I like the DCCC or think that they have a great track record for the last couple of election cycles...but because I have been following this recruitment cycle very closely and think Emanuel has done a far better job than Matsui, may he rest in peace.

Improvements still need to be made. And mistakes have indeed been made in this election cycle.

The Duckworth/Cegelis controversy was one of them. I was very sympathetic to Christine and was most outraged at the fact that the local community and local activists appear to have had little or no influence on the decision; they were shut out of the process.

The Roberts/Arcuri match-up is not. Mike Arcuri is a stellar candidate who lives and was elected DA in the district, and has a ton of support in the district, and had been floating his name as a candidate long before Les Roberts entered the race. In fact, I first read about him in November 2005. Just because Roberts filed and declared first does not give him some kind of stranglehold on the nomination, or on the DCCC's support.

Rahm Emanuel's recruitment around the country has been stellar and has often not been talked about by the blogosphere.
I personally credit him with luring Patricia Madrid (NM-1), Phyllis Busansky (FL- ), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Joe Sestak (PA-7), Heath Shuler (NC- ), Phil Kellam (VA- ) and many others into races that might otherwise have been washout victories for Republican incumbents...races that are now second tier or higher...many of which getting more and more competitive as Bush sinks lower and lower...

His biggest failure was in losing Barbara Hafer at the last minute as a challenger to Tim Murphy in Pennsylvannia. She was in, according to PoliticsPA, and then at the last minute she withdrew...This would have been one of the top 5 races in the country...
Other failures include losing Tim Dunn in NC-06 (no offense to Larry Kissell, who has his heart and soul in this race), letting Charlie Wilson (OH-2) make his son campaign manager, and failures to recruit in NY-13 (Vito Fossella), and OH-13 (Steve LaTourette).

But nowhere in this relatively short list of failures do I mention anything about Rahm being some kind of traitor to his party, betraying loyal Democrats in Congressional primaries.

I honestly believe we have the strongest field of Congressional challengers since the Republicans in 1994. We have almost doubled the field of competitive seats since 2004...my own personal list has over 40 competitive races...and everywhere you look the Republicans are on the run...
And though he would never admit it, I think Rahm learned a lesson in IL-06...I think the DCCC is slowly...very slowly...recognizing the power of the blogosphere.

Is it about time we recognized Emanuel's power? He's the closest thing we've ever had to a Newt Gingrich.
Say what you may about him. He's given us a better chance to win than anyone I can remember in a long time.

by NYMinute 2006-04-30 02:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Thank You!

Well said.  Although his personal politics are too conservative for me, there is NO DOUBT that Rahm hates the republicans and he isn't afraid to punch them in the mouth.  Honestly, I would think that would appeal to folks out in the blogosphere....

by HSTruman 2006-04-30 03:05PM | 0 recs
Two Points

1. Emanuel benefits from a political environment for which he is not responsible.

2. The blogosphere abandoned Cegelis, leaving her and her supporters to fend for themselves against the $800,000 Duckworth machine.

by illinois062006 2006-04-30 03:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Two Points

Given that Ms. Cegelis raised 362K for this race, including ~100K in 2006 alone, I can't find that compelling.

It's not Markos' or Chris' or Atrios' or anyone else's job to support candidates you like.  It's your job to build the movement yourself.

by Adam B 2006-05-01 06:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Two Points

Thank you for demonstrating once again how malleable facts actually are.  I notice you did not mention how much Duckworth raised within a 5 month period.  You also fail to mention the coordinated, free media she received during this short period.  Your tendentiousness is remarkable.

by illinois062006 2006-05-01 09:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Two Points

You already mentioned how much Duckworth raised; there was no need for me to.  Nothing sells like a good story, and Asian-American Disabled Female Iraqi War Veteran is awfully compelling.  Free media is a good thing, and will be so again come fall.

by Adam B 2006-05-01 10:23AM | 0 recs
Convential wisdom

I'm going to disagree. Nothing sells like a good story  - when it's told to the right people. I don't think Duckworth's story will sell very well in my district, but instead be used against her as I've written many times.

by michael in chicago 2006-05-01 03:42PM | 0 recs
My concern is this

Rahm is at an advantage in the current political climate. Should he be remotely competent, he should do better than others in the last three cycles. Being a Republican right now isn't the vote getter is used to be, and having a "D" in front of your name helps more than it used to. It's a Democratic market right now thanks to Bush and the GOP culture of corruption.

So should the Dems take back the house, Rahm and his heavy handed tactics I fear will be credited above what they deserve to be, and his position as 'kingmaker' increased within the party.

This bothers me as 1) he seems to favor candidates who are more centrist and appeal to Republicans 2)at least in IL-06, there is little going on to build the local party, but instead a focus on media and fundraising.

There will come a time when the GOP won't be such a screwed up party as it is now. At this time the Democratic brand and local parties need to be strong and well developed. Without this, any victories that take place now, in an electorate that wants change for the current administration, will be short lived.

by michael in chicago 2006-04-30 04:55PM | 0 recs
Re: My concern is this

Is it possible that Rahm favors centrist candidates because America is centrist? Especially the crucial suburban areas which most swing CD's are in (see PA 6-8)?

I mean, yeah Rahm Emanuel is no progressive.

I am a progressive, and eventually I would like to bring the party over to my side.

But my god, CAN WE PLEASE JUST WIN AN ELECTION FIRST???

by NYMinute 2006-05-01 06:39AM | 0 recs
Re: My concern is this


Sorry if I got ill-tempered in that last reply, I'm just so damned sick of losing elections. I think we all are.

The point I was trying to make is that we have to expand the Democratic party geographically in order to win back the House and Senate...in order to do this, we have to appeal to parts of America that voted for Bush...sometimes overwhelmingly...if you believe that candidates like Christine Cegelis are best able to compete for votes in Bush country, then this is where our disagreement truly lies. Now I know Henry Hyde's district is trending Dem...but trending Dem does not a Dem victory make. (see CO-07, PA-08, WA-08)

I repeat what I said about the Cegelis/Duckworth controversy being a huge error for Emanuel...but the biggest part of the error was in pissing off loyal Democrats in the blogosphere and elsewhere.

So far, I think everything else he has done has been spectacular, and has vastly improved the House forecast for November.

Yes, he does proactively go after issues the way Newt Gingrich always did. But he isn't as good as Newt was...he's just the closest thing we've got...

by NYMinute 2006-05-01 06:47AM | 0 recs
Re: My concern is this

make that "yes, he doesn't"

by NYMinute 2006-05-01 06:49AM | 0 recs
Re: My concern is this

Rahm has the go for the jugular attitude that so many Dems are lacking these days.  I still love the story of him sending a dead fish to a pollster he thought sucked.  I wouldn't want to have dinner with the guy but he has the exact the attitude we need to break our losing cycle.

by John Mills 2006-05-01 06:51AM | 0 recs
It's whose jugulars he goes for

that bothers me!

by Jim in Chicago 2006-05-01 08:05AM | 0 recs
Re: My concern is this

I am not one to condone antics similar to those performed by unruly teenage boys who enjoy torturing small animals.  And I am especially loathe to praising adults who resort to such antics instead of engaging in civil debate with those with whom one disagrees.  But one should be especially outraged when he employs similar tactics against Democrats.    

by illinois062006 2006-05-02 12:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Thank You!

Is that what happened with Charlie Wilson?  Jeebus.  I thought Pat Buchanan was the only person who made his family members his campaign manager.

by Nonpartisan 2006-04-30 05:35PM | 0 recs
Rahm vs. Newt: one BIG difference

Newt was never afraid to get out front on an issue. He would take stands that had very little popular backing and build support for them. Contrast that to Rahm who is STILL afraid to take on Iraq, even when 2/3 of the country now recognizes that it was a mistake (that 2/3 could easily be 3/4 if the Democrats were unified in their condemnation).

by Jim in Chicago 2006-04-30 05:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Thank You!

Great post.  I am going to defend Rahm a little more on NY-13.  I know that Rahm tried very hard to recruit SI Assem Mike Cusick and SI COuncilman Mike McMahon to run against Fossella.  Both would have been formidable candidates but thought it was an uphill battle at best.  Fossella won by 18 pts two years ago so I am not sure how vulnerable he really is.  Bill DiBlasio is a really talented guy but he doesn't live in or represent much of the district so he was not a good fit and opted out.  Our current candidate seems to pretty much suck which is too bad.

The SI Dems seem to be concentrating on retiring Repub State Sen John Marchi's seat which could give soon to be Gov Spitzer a Dem State Senate.  However, it doesn't help us much at the national level.

by John Mills 2006-04-30 08:59PM | 0 recs
New York-3 and New York-13

In New York-3(Peter King-R)-The Nassau/Suffolk County District- I hear that Nassau County Legislator David Deneberg is running.

In New York-13(Vito Fossella-R)-Staten Island/Brooklyn- Steven Harrison is a candidate.

A strong candidate should have been recruited against John McHugh-NY-23(Plattsburgh)
All Republican Held House Seats of New York will get challenged. New York would have a all Democratic Congressional Delegation.

by CMBurns 2006-05-01 03:59AM | 0 recs
Re: New York-3 and New York-13

NY 13 would be winnable in an open seat situation with either Cusick or McMahon.  Beating Fossella as an incumbent is tough, especially with a candidate from Brooklyn like Harrison.

NY 3 would be tough under any circumstances.  There are still a sizable number of Repubs on LI and almost all have been crammed into Pete King's district.  Bush carried it twice.  This has helped solidify both Steve Israel and Carolyn McCarthy in neighboring seats but will make it hard for us to take the seat.

I don't know enough about the Plattsburgh area to comment on John McHugh.

The Dems are in a good position to take both NY-24 and NY-29 and if Sweeney keeps screwing up we could take NY-20 as well.  We already have 20-9 advantage so our opportunities in NY are somewhat limited.  A 22-7 or 23-6 advantage would make me very happy.

by John Mills 2006-05-01 06:09AM | 0 recs
Re: New York-3 and New York-13

Correction on NY 3.  Gore carried it under the old lines in 2000.

by John Mills 2006-05-01 11:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

You missed it completely.  In your last line, you said Emanuel made a mistake in IL-06.  But it was no mistake.  It was an absolutely purposeful shutout of a vibrant candidate.

It was wrong, but it was purposeful, and that's not a "mistake".  A human being's life is completely altered, as well as that of most of the constituents of that district.

And Emanuel doesn't give a damn because he got what he wanted.

Carolyn Kay
MakeThemAccountable.com

by Caro 2006-05-01 05:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

It was a mistake. Maybe it wasn't an accident, since it was purposeful. But it was a mistake.

Something purposeful can be a mistake. I have the ex-wives to prove it.

by KB 2006-05-01 06:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

A mistake in OUR eyes, perhaps.  But Rahm knew exactly what was going to happen.  Since IL05 is adjacent to IL06, he is fully aware of the political dynamics within his neighboring district.

The progressive Cegelis has departed the political arena for the time.  Hopefully, she will return someday.

The emerging Democratic Party in the 6th District is now in shambles.

The 2006 Congressional Race in the 6th has been handed to Roskam on a silver platter.  

While we may not grasp Rahm's motives in bringing this about, don't be fooled into thinking that this came as a surprise to the cagey political animal.

by pascal1947 2006-05-01 11:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

Yes, Rahm intentionally threw this district to the Republicans.  "Obviously."

by Steve M 2006-05-01 12:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

I am glad you agree with Pascal.  Welcome to the realm of reason.

by illinois062006 2006-05-01 03:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

Wow, you guys are really out there.

by Steve M 2006-05-01 09:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

Or perhaps you are out of touch with the dynamics on the ground in Illinois 06 before Laddy Duckworth purchased the primary.

by illinois062006 2006-05-02 04:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

For someone who gets very sensitive when we don't call you by your pseudonym of the week, Ilya/Metonym/Formalist, you seem to have a fetish about refusing to refer to Major Duckworth by her chosen name, Tammy.

by Adam B 2006-05-02 07:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

Of course Emanuel didn't purposely throw the district to the Republicans.  I'm sure he actually thought Duckworth was a better candidate.  But he was guilty of beltway thinking, especially thinking that he knows better than the Democrats in the district who the candidate should be.

It ain't up to him.  It ain't his party.  It's OUR party, in case you forgot.

And he IS building a power base for himself and his beltway buddies.

I won't consider it a mistake until Emanuel admits he made a mistake.  In public.  Perhaps in this forum.  But don't hold your breath.

Carolyn Kay
MakeThemAccountable.com

by Caro 2006-05-02 03:44AM | 0 recs
Huh?

He represents a neighboring district, so he may well know more about Cegelis than you think.

Also, ultimately, the Democrats in the district decided who their candidate should be, and despite Cegelis' three straight years of campaigning, they chose someone else.

by Adam B 2006-05-02 08:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Huh?

Your comment reveals how out of touch you are with the dynamics on the ground in the district before the overdetermined Primary.

by illinois062006 2006-05-02 10:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Huh?

The dynamics on the ground are that Cegelis lost, and you don't live in the district.

by Adam B 2006-05-02 10:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Huh?

But I live very close to it, and I visited it multiple times during the primary.  I also happen to live in the region.  You are obviously out of touch with the district, otherwise you would know everyone in the Chicagoland area, including those who do not reside in the district but still volunteered for Duckworth while informing everyone that I reside in Illinois 01, was aware of the dynamics on the ground in Illinois 06.  That you did not, do not and will not is illustrated by the points you repeatedly make on this blog.  But if it is your choice to remain out of touch with the dynamics on the ground, that is your choice.

by illinois062006 2006-05-02 04:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Huh?

Dude, Cegelis lost.  She campaigned for three straight years, raised a lot of money, and lost.  She spent so much money early that she couldn't get on tv at all.

So what dynamics are we missing?

by Adam B 2006-05-02 06:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Huh?

If you refuse to acknowledge the dynamics on the ground before the primary at this point, I do not know if repeating what has been articulated again and again here and elsewhere is worth the effort required.

by illinois062006 2006-05-02 06:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Huh?

Yes, before the primary Cegelis had a lot of grassroots support, and after the primary there was frustration, but Cegelis herself encouraged her supporters to lend Duckworth their full support.  What else?

by Adam B 2006-05-02 07:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Huh?

Yes, she did, but the dynamics on the ground before the primary did in fact exist.

by illinois062006 2006-05-02 07:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Huh?

So?  Joe Torcella and Alison Schwarz spent a hell of a lot more money than this in whacking the crap out of each other in their 2004 primary, yet everyone on the ground got over it overnight because they understood the goal was to BEAT REPUBLICANS.  What makes IL-6 so special?

And you couldn't even tell us who won the race or what state it's in without Googling.  (And just to be sure of that, I've misspelled everyone's name.)

by Adam B 2006-05-02 07:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Huh?

Your last sentence makes no sense.  I reside in Chicago, and I volunteered for and donated to the Cegelis campaign.  Because I do not reside in the district, I do not feel compelled to volunteer for Laddy Duckworth's campaign.

by illinois062006 2006-05-02 08:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Huh?

Believe it or not, I don't think Maj. Duckworth was counting on you.

by Adam B 2006-05-03 05:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Huh?

I imagine she believes she will win without the support of the local, progressive, on the ground supporters in District 6.  Moreover, your statement reveals how she and her supporters are not uniters but dividers.

by illinois062006 2006-05-03 10:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Huh?

On this website, I promised Michael in Chicago weeks before the primary that if Cegelis won, I'd send her $250 the next day.  You're the only one, literally, who's still fighting this.

And I imagine that almost all of the local, progressive, on the ground supporters in District 6 will fight for Maj. Duckworth against Peter Roskam, just as Ms. Cegelis has urged.

by Adam B 2006-05-03 12:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Huh?

Only time will tell.  But Laddy Duckworth is presently in California, raising funds once again OUTSIDE OF THE DISTRICT.  I guess you are also out of touch with the present dynamics of the race in Illinois 06.  

by illinois062006 2006-05-03 12:18PM | 0 recs
Good.

She should be raising money wherever she can find it.  That's what it takes to get on television and win a congressional race.

by Adam B 2006-05-03 01:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Good.

You will defend every single one of her actions, even if they are not in the best interests of those who reside in the district.  This is your choice.  But please, just admit that she and her supporters are cynical, and just admit that you represent a current of the Democratic party that cares less about voters and more about unhinged, OUT OF TOUCH, Washington, DC, political power and not REAL, authentic representation in Illinois 06.

by illinois062006 2006-05-03 01:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Good.

I will defend actions that will help win IL-6, and oppose those which will lose it.  You can't win a congressional campaign just from in-district money.

You oppose anything that someone in the DCCC or DSCC supports.

by Adam B 2006-05-03 02:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Good.

I have supported many candidates endorsed by the DCCC and the DSCC this cycle, and I am more than willing to disclose the contributions I have made since 2004.  No, I do not oppose these organizations, and I am in fact very impressed with the DSCC.  But I do object to Rahm Emanuel and the various decisions he has made in 2006, which include his HOSTILE TAKEOVER of Illinois 06, his problematic votes during the 109th Congress, his support of the War in Iraq and has handling of two other Congressional races in other states.  Your generalization is very simplistic.

I oppose Emanuel's intervention in Illinois 06, and I find Duckworth dishonest and ethically compromised.  I have a right to these opinions, and I will continue to articulate my disdain for both Emanuel and Duckworth, as there exists much evidence to support my informed assertions.

And yes, you have a rigth to remain out of touch, cynical and anti-progressive.  You may, in other words, remain a supporter of Ladda Duckworth.  But do not be surprised of residents on the ground and in the district find Duckworth and her campaign uninspiring.  For Duckworth and her handlers have done nothing to energize and motivate the local voters will be part of the local dynamics and the local outcome in November.

by illinois062006 2006-05-03 02:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Good.

If you're going to continue to insist on calling Maj. Duckworth by a given first name she chooses not to use, I'm going to keep calling you Kenny.  Or Metonym.  Or Ilya.  Or Formalist.  Whatever.

The residents in the district voted for Tammy Duckworth.  No one put a gun to anyone's head.

by Adam B 2006-05-03 03:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Good.

I prefer you stick to the parameters of the debate and not engage in ad hominem slurs.

by illinois062006 2006-05-03 03:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Good.

Start by referring to Tammy Duckworth by the name she's chosen, and avoiding ad hominem attacks yourself.

by Adam B 2006-05-03 06:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Good.

Her name is Ladda Duckworth, and referring to her as such is not any way ad hominem.  If I were to attack her personally, then one can admonish me for penning ad hominem arguments.  But I am attacking the various forces orchestrating her campaign.  L. "Tammy'"s name is irrelevant to the discussion we are having.  What is relevant, however, is the continued existence of her campaign, which, by the way, receives most of its funds not from the distriction BUT FROM WITHOUT.

by illinois062006 2006-05-03 06:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Good.

Fine.  Your names online are Metonym, Ilya (something), Formalist, Illinois062006, as well as your real name, which you've linked to in repeatedly drawing our attention to your LTE in the Sun-Times.  And every time I post, I'll reference all of them, most of which have been banned from this site.

MOST successful congressional campaigns draw most of their money from outside the district.  Ask Paul Hackett how he'd have done with money just from OH-2.

by Adam B 2006-05-03 07:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Good.

No, you will not.  And if you do, it will reveal your unwillingness to engage in a civil debate with someone with whom you happen to disagree.  Besides, I have not engaged in any activities that are disruptive under this handle.  If you and your friends want to continue to make an issue out of what is a nonissue, please be my guest.  

by illinois062006 2006-05-03 10:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Good.

I cannot believe you just tried to threaten me.  Must you sink so low?

by illinois062006 2006-05-03 10:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Huh?

What we're still fighting is the dictatorial and high handed methods of the Chicago/Beltway pols.  I, for one, will NEVER stop fighting them.  Whether Democrats win a majority in November or not.  If we do win a majority and the majority of Democrats might as well be Republicans, I don't see what good that does me as a progressive.

Maybe they won't pave over QUITE as much of our wilderness areas.

Carolyn Kay
MakeThemAccountable.com

by Caro 2006-05-03 12:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Huh?

He represents a neighboring district, but I doubt he knows much about ours, let alone his.

We'll see in November. Personal opionion is that he screwed up in ways conventional wisdom and beltway thinking can not fathom.

by michael in chicago 2006-05-02 02:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Why I disagree with Michael in Chicago

At the end of the day (my day ends at about 6 AM), we are still left with the impossible task of factoring in the 900 pound jackal. That is, the upper management of the DCCC, et al. has repeatedly  revealed itself to be a pack of jackals who treat democracy as if it were a shabby box of junk jewelery. What, then, can be the point of arguing about what these jackals should, or should not be doing?

by blues 2006-05-02 12:42AM | 0 recs

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