Time to Face Facts on Blogosphere Senate Recruitments

[Cross-posted at Daily Kos and Swing State Project.]

Jim Webb's victory tonight is a victory for Virginia's netroots.  Virginia's progressive blogosphere was not thrilled with the default candidate emerging earlier this year.  So, spearheaded by Lowell and many others, they drafted a Reagan Republican with a stellar resume to run as a Democrat and propelled him to victory in the primary.

--  Raising Kaine

My, how far we in the activist Netroots have fallen.  With Brad Miller's refusal to run in the North Carolina Senate race, it's time to admit that we have a full-fledged blogosphere recruitment disaster on our hands for the 2008 Senate races -- and to ask why it happened, and how we can avoid such an event in the future.

Here are the candidate recruitment situations in the Senate races with Republican incumbents or that are open seats:

Alabama: Blogosphere-recruited State Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks decided not to run against Sen. Jeff Sessions, citing concerns of a divisive primary against State Sen. Vivian Figures.  Sparks' decision leaves only Figures, a charismatic liberal but a long-shot to win the general election, in the race.

Alaska: The Democrats' top choice against scandal-plagued Sen. Ted Stevens, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, is the only major candidate in the race (unless former State Senate Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz gets in).  Unlike the last two election cycles, when former Governor Tony Knowles was heavily recruited by the blogosphere, there hasn't been a peep from anyone online except to tepidly support the recruitment of Begich.

Colorado: Congressman and Blue Dog Dem Mark Udall locked up this nomination early, with support from Chuck Schumer.  The blogosphere has yet to mention a strong candidate against him (Mike Miles, anyone?)

Georgia: Neither Rand Knight or Dale Cardwell stands much of a chance against Sen. Saxby Chambliss, and the blogosphere has yet to make much noise about either of them, despite both of their solid progressive records.  The blogosphere (and, presumably, Chuck Schumer) also failed to recruit Sen. Max Cleland into a rematch with Chambliss.

Idaho: Former Congressman Larry LaRocco is a solid progressive, but has locked up this nomination against Sen. Mike Crapo without much help from the blogosphere, which is more focused on Congressional candidate Larry Grant.

Kentucky: No one on the Democratic side has yet jumped into this race against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, despite its high position on the list of blogosphere targets.

Maine: Congressman Tom Allen joined the race against Sen. Susan Collins early and was a joint recruit of the blogosphere and Chuck Schumer.

Minnesota: One could say that talk-show host Al Franken is a blogosphere recruit, but that would belie the fact that many in the blogosphere don't want him to run.  He faces Schumer recruit Mike Ciresi in what promises to be a hotly-contested primary for the right to face Sen. Norm Coleman.

Mississippi: No one has joined the race against veteran Sen. Thad Cochran, though former Attorney General Mike Moore is considering.

Nebraska: Blogosphere recruit Scott Kleeb is considering the race against Sen. Chuck Hagel in what may be an open seat, but the most likely candidate remains Blue Dog Democrat and rabid Iraq War supporter Bob Kerrey, who is being recruited by Chuck Schumer.

New Hampshire: The blogosphere failed to recruit anyone into the race against Sen. John Sununu, leaving the two leading Democratic candidates as former Congresswoman and Joe Lieberman ally Katrina Swett and the slightly more palatable former Governor Jeanne Shaheen, who is Chuck Schumer's choice.

New Mexico: No major candidate has yet jumped into the race against surprisingly-vulnerable Sen. Pete Domenici.  Top blogosphere recruit Congressman Tom Udall declined to run.  The blogosphere is now attempting to recruit former U.S. Attorney John Kelly.

North Carolina: A joint push by the blogosphere and Chuck Schumer to recruit Congressman Brad Miller into the race failed last week when Miller announced he wasn't running.  To date, no one has announced a run against Sen. Liddy Dole.

Oklahoma: In one of the few potential blogosphere success stories, State Sen. Andrew Rice is considering running against Sen. Jim Inhofe.

Oregon: The top two blogosphere recruitments, Congressmen Peter DeFazio and Earl Blumenauer, both declined to run.  The blogosphere is now stuck with political novice Steve Novick.

South Carolina: No Democrat has stepped up to challenge Sen. Lindsey Graham.

Tennessee: No Democrat has stepped up to challenge Sen. Lamar Alexander, though Michael Ray McWherter, son of a former Governor, is considering.

Texas: Blogosphere recruit State Sen. Rick Noriega is still considering the race against Sen. John Cornyn.

Virginia: The only potential candidate for Sen. John Warner's seat is former Governor Mark Warner, who is a Schumer recruit.

Wyoming: The only potential candidate for these two Senate seats now held by Sens. Mike Enzi and Jon Barasso is conservative Dem Gov. Dave Freudenthal, definitely not a blogosphere recruit.

You may question my characterizations of some of these races, but let's look at the situation this way: The top five blogosphere recruits of the cycle (the ones that received national blogosphere attention from Daily Kos, MyDD, and other sites) were Ron Sparks in Alabama, Brad Miller in North Carolina, Peter DeFazio and Earl Blumenauer in Oregon, and Rick Noriega in Texas.  To date, four of these five have declined to run, and the fifth (Noriega) is still considering.

This is a pretty terrible record for blogosphere recruitment this cycle.  In 2006, by way of comparison, the blogosphere was able to singlehandedly recruit Jim Webb and Ned Lamont into their respective Senate races, and then propel them ahead of high-powered Schumer candidates Joe Lieberman and Harris Miller.  We also played a major role in Jon Tester's defeat of the Schumer-supported John Morrison in Montana.

Where is that blogosphere muscle now?  Why can't we convince two separate Congressmen in Oregon to run against a badly damaged Senator, or show a statewide officeholder in Alabama that we can help him beat a no-name state senator?  It's time for us in the blogosphere, both in the state blogs and in the national activist blogs, to examine our priorities and figure out what has gone so horribly wrong in this recruitment cycle.  Is it because we're too focused on the Presidential race?  Because we've simply lost interest in the Senate since taking it over last November?  Whatever the reason, I think we should talk seriously about why we've failed so far in this cycle, and about how, or if, we can salvage the situation.  I for one would like to see a Lieberman-proof majority in the Senate after 2008.

Tags: 2008-Senate, Activism, Blogosphere, Democrats (all tags)

Comments

9 Comments

Tip Jar

Let me have it.

by Nonpartisan 2007-06-29 01:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Time to Face Facts

Webb wasn't even mentioned until Oct or Nov as I remember and only then barely. It was only after a month or so did he pick up steam.

by bruh21 2007-06-29 01:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Time to Face Facts on Blogosphere Senate Recru

WY:  Garry Trauner is a much more likely candidate than Frudenthal.  Trauner received a considerable amount of blogosphere support in his race against Barbara Cubin.

KY:  AG Greg Stumbo and Charlie Owen are considering bids.  Neither are particularly progressive.

GA:  I'd question Dale Cardwell's so-called "solid progressive credentials."  Sounds more like a right wing loon to me...

NE:  I'd call Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey as a more likely candidate than Kerrey.

NH:  The NH blogosphere has started to coalesce around Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand (who'll drop out if Shaheen gets in the race).

by Ramo 2007-06-29 01:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Time to Face Facts on Blogosphere Senate Recru

Trauner is running against Cubin, not for Senate.  He's made that clear, as I understand it.

by Nonpartisan 2007-06-29 05:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Time to Face Facts on Blogosphere Senate Recru

Pitting Nebraska as a failure of the netroots is vastly misreading the situation here. Kleeb's 32 years old, he's not going to jump in line ahead of a two-term former Senator and Governor of Nebraska, or a popular Democratic mayor of the state's largest city. That's just politics. Kerrey was a huge supporter of Kleeb in 2006, so let's not pretend they're on different sides, here.

This is the reality of having a short bench. We can't afford to divide into camps in Nebraska. You're not going to convince Nebraska Democrats that Bob Kerrey's bad for Nebraska Democrats. He helped build the party. We've got plenty of reasons to believe he can help rebuild it. And when you don't have the grassroots, you can't even pretend to say anything about the netroots.

Nebraska Democrats would love Bob Kerrey, Mike Fahey, or Scott Kleeb to be our nominee for U.S. Senate.

by Dave Sund 2007-06-29 01:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Time to Face Facts

Like it or not the Presidential races are sucking out money, enthusiasm and concentration on the Senate races.  And the House races.  Making a big deal about Republican obstruction will re-focus things to some extent on the Senate and House races.

It is still sixteen months to election time.  Some of the races like the Kentucky one have preliminaries.  Wait for the fall's governor election to sort things out.  First thiongs first and all that.

Meanwhile, tie the Republicans in to obstruction, Iraq, and support of Bush.    

by David Kowalski 2007-06-29 03:09PM | 0 recs
Shaheen in NH

There is a lot of healthy discussion about the US Senate race on NH site, Blue Hampshire. It would not be accurate to say blogosphere coalescing around Steve Marchand; Buckey, a third announced candidate, leads Marchand on Act Blue; the draft Shaheen committee, which has been up with a web site for less than a week, is second on Act Blue.  Jeanne Shaheen would make a great candidate and a great senator. She signed landmark civil rights and environmental legislation, was elected three times, and is a large part of the reason why NH is a blue state today.  Check out http://www.draftshaheen.com.

by nascardem 2007-06-29 04:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Time to Face Facts

And how many of our recruitment efforts had FAILED by this point last cycle?

by Nonpartisan 2007-06-29 05:43PM | 0 recs
Okay. I'll

let you have it. I think you're wrong. Let me explain.

Alabama: Figures isn't in the race yet and there are rumblings that Sparks may yet make the right choice. The question wasn't can Sparks beat Figures for the nomination but it would have been hard to not piss off black voters and Sparks would need black voters. That's why he didn't run.

Alaska: No. We all want Mike Gravel! Just kidding. This has been quite but it's Alaska. Ted Stevens isn't going anywhere anytime soon and Begich is the only at all viable canidate. There just isn't a bench in Alaska.

Colorado: Waste of time. Udall isn't a Blue Dog, just a DLCer. But for Colorado he's pretty progressive. Better then DINO Ken Salzar. It would be a waste of time and resources.

Georgia: Dale is a crazy right winger. He's to the right of Tom Tracadaro on immigration and is in favor of some crazy right wing tax idea. The flat tax I think. There is a strong effort in the GA netroots to draft Wrc Orr. Check it out: http://www.wewantwyc.com/

Idaho: Why would we want to challenge him? Larry has strong netroots support already. Has liveblogged. Coming to YearlyKos. Mcjoan raved about how great he was. He is a netroots guy. Who cares if we didn't recruit him?

Kentucky: We're focused on raised money for whoever wins. The netroots favorite is Charlie Owen though. There is a draft effort at http://draftowen.blogspot.com/

Maine: Allen is a big friend of the netroots and the netroots have been a big friend of him. This is a big success. DSCC loves him and so do we.

Minnesota: Franken ran on his own. Some in the netroots like him but many don't. Mike Ciresi isn't DSCC recruited. They wanted McCollum, Walz or Rybak. I think the netroots will get behind someone else. I'm thinking about starting a Draft Rybak movement actually. I met him today and he was a great guy. Either him or Mpls City Council Member Ralph Remington.

Mississippi: It's Mississippi. Need I say more? Thad isn't going anywhere unless he retires.

Nebraska: Kleeb was not a netroots recruit at all. Some in the netroots liked him but still. Kerry won't run most likely and Mike Fehay is much more recruited by the netroots and DSCC currently.  

New Hampshire: Swett isn't a former congresswomen. I have no idea where you got that idea. And the Netroots has been getting behind Marchand pretty big.

New Mexico: The netroots hasn't done much at all in New Mexico. I think Kelly would be the best choice.

North Carolina: This was a big loss but oh well. Many (like me) want Grier Martin to run and don't be surprised to see a draft effort soon.

Oklahoma: Yep. Andrew is going to run. I'd be pretty surprised if he didn't. He's a real progressive. No chance of winning but oh well.

Oregon: Stuck? Most of the netroots LOVE political VETREN Steve Novick. He's one of us. He has a long uphill way to go but he will win.

South Carolina: Yeah. But The Guru has suggested Robert Barber Jr. and hopefully he'll run.

Tennessee: McWherter would be great. Not much of a bench in TN though. And at least Ford is gone.

Texas: Rick is leaning towards a race. He'll jump in soon. He's the Jim Webb of this cycle. A populist military guy who can win in a red state.

Virginia: Warner also has a lot of netroots support. I'd say by you're terms he would be a joint recruit. Although he won't run unless Warner retires.

Wyoming: Dave isn't running. Period. But this is Wyoming. There is almost no bench if any there. Some random rancher or something will step up. Hopefully.

Basically I think the "netroots" is doing pretty well. Seeing as no one in the netroots knew who James Webb was at this time of the year and Ned Lamont was still a long shot. I'd say we are doing pretty we'll. We've got Allen, Marchand, LaRoco who have netroots support but aren't netroots candidates per say. You've you Rice and Rick in the southwest who are going to run most likely. You've got draft efforts for Owen and Orr. You've got draft efforts on the horizon for Robert Barber Jr. and Grier Martin. You've got Warner who is going to do a lot of netroots outreach and get netroots support.

I think overall we're doing pretty we'll. That's just me though!

by Populista 2007-06-29 06:43PM | 0 recs

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