Obama leads overall 54-43, but according to SUSA, among the 43% who already voted, Obama only leads 49-48.

Oregon Women Move To Obama in Final Week Before Primary: In a Democratic Primary in Oregon today, 05/12/08, 8 days until votes are counted, Barack Obama defeats Hillary Clinton 54% to 43%, according to a SurveyUSA tracking poll conducted for KATU-TV Portland. Though the results are only slightly more in favor of Obama than SurveyUSA's most recent track point, released 11 days ago, before results of North Carolina and Indiana were known, there is movement in Oregon among women. 5 weeks ago, Clinton led by 7 among Oregon women. Today, Obama leads by 7. See the interactive tracking graph here. Among voters younger than Obama, Obama leads by 24 points. Among voters older than Republican John McCain, Clinton leads, but just barely, and by a lot less than she had. See the interactive tracking graph here. 4 in 10 of likely voters have already returned a ballot. Among the actual voters, Clinton and Obama tie. Obama's advantage comes entirely from the 6 in 10 likely voters who tell SurveyUSA they will return their ballot before 8 pm on Primary Day, but have not yet done so. All voting in Oregon is by U.S. mail. Ballots may be returned until 8 pm on 05/20/08.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=94e9005d-d8d6-46e2-b09a-697a4e 23a900

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Landslide on the way for HRC in Kentucky.

Survey USA concludes, significant delegate and popular vote pick up for Clinton in Kentucky.

HRC 62
BHO 30
Other 6
Und 3

Clinton has a shot to reach 65 percent, and a small shot to cross the 70 percent threshold.

Clinton Poised for Ceremonial Trouncing of Obama in Kentucky: In a Democratic Primary in Kentucky today, 05/12/08, 8 days until votes are counted, Hillary Clinton decisively defeats Barack Obama, and is well-positioned to pick up delegates and popular votes, according to SurveyUSA's 5th pre-primary tracking poll, conducted for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. Clinton leads 62% to 30% today, effectively unchanged from SurveyUSA polls released 4 weeks, 2 weeks and 1 week ago. Clinton gets 84% of the vote in Eastern Kentucky, 62% in Western KY, 61% in North Central KY and 52% in greater Louisville. It is unclear to what extent Democrats in Kentucky will conclude, before Primary Day, that the Kentucky contest has significance. Some may conclude that the nomination fight is over, and that the contest has no meaning. Others may see it as having great symbolic importance, and the opportunity to make a statement

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=5a9590c1-a775-4dc0-8dee-9f75b0 29ae2c

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Well, after the pundits and media asked HRC to drop out, a new poll comes out which actually expands her lead in West Virginia.

HRC: 63
BHO: 23
Undecided/Don't know: 14

No active link yet, but you could check the website out for its source.

http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/05/08/ good-morning-west-virginia/

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Total blowout in Kentucky.

New Survey USA, Obama does not even cross the 30 percent threshold.

HRC 62
BHO 28

From SUSA:

Two weeks to the Democratic Primary for President in Kentucky, Hillary Clinton remains decisively atop Barack Obama, according to this 4th tracking poll conducted by SurveyUSA for WHAS-TV in Louisville and WCPO-TV in Cincinnati. Today, it's Clinton 62%, Obama 28%, effectively unchanged from SurveyUSA polls released on 04/29/08 and 04/15/08. Clinton leads in every region of the state and in every demographic subpopulation of consequence.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=602e0e00-1895-4c69-81cc-96bcae 6aee9d

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Clinton crusing to victory in Indiana.

Latest SUSA poll:

HRC - 54
BHO - 42

In 4 tracking polls over the past 5 weeks, Clinton has never polled lower than 52%, Obama has never polled higher than 43%. At the wire, they finish: Clinton 54%, Obama 42%. Among males, the two have been tied in 3 of the 4 tracking polls. Among females, Clinton has always led by at least 14, and finishes ahead by 22. Among Republicans and Independents, the two are effectively tied. Among Democrats, Clinton finishes ahead by 19. Clinton leads among Conservatives, Moderates and Liberals. She leads among Pro Life and Pro Choice voters, among regular and not-so-regular church goers. In Northern Indiana, she leads by 11. In Central and Southern Indiana, she leads by 27. In greater Indianapolis, Obama leads. Among voters under 35, Obama leads. Among voters over 35, Clinton leads.

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Lanny Davis, per an interview on FOX, stated that Howard Dean worked on behalf of the Obama campaign to nix the NC debate.

He called for his resignation.

Fireworks in the making folks.

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Drudge has been reporting this evening that a HRC spokesperson states that as of today, she is leading by 11 in Pennsylvania.

I don't see how Obama wins PA, but I guess the margin of victory really will determine the course of the rest of the campaign. John McIntyre from Real Clear politics has the primer for dissecting the results tomorrow:

--Obama wins: Race is totally over.

--Clinton wins by 5 or less: Race is effectively over.

--Clinton wins by 6-9: Status quo, which favors the front runner Obama, particularly as the clock winds down.

--Clinton wins by 10-13: Clinton remains the underdog, but her odds of being the nominee will be considerably higher than the conventional wisdom in the media.

--Clinton wins by 14+: Totally different race, as Clinton will be on a path to claim a popular vote win that will give her every bit as much of an argument as the legitimate "winner". In this scenario anything could ultimately happen, including neither Clinton nor Obama becoming the eventual nominee.

Here is the report from DRUDGE:

Controlled excitement is building inside of Clinton's inner circle as closely guarded internal polling shows the former first lady with an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania!

Clinton is polling near to nearly 2 to 1 over Obama in many regions of the state, a top insider explained to the DRUDGE REPORT.

A strong coalition of middle-class and religious voters has all but secured a Clinton victory Tuesday, with headline-making margins, the campaign believes.

"It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of how much," a senior campaign source said Monday morning.

When pressed if the dramatic internal polling numbers could somehow be flawed in a state as demographically complex as Pennsylvania, and with new voter registration surging to unseen levels, the campaign insider held firm.

"Senator Obama would be wise not to unpack his bags quite yet."

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Blowout in Kentucky:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rtEmail.aspx?g=7970b4f8-b612-4f2e-8dde-3 f865c3d7ac5

In Kentucky, Clinton 36 Lengths In Front of Sputtering Obama: In a Democratic Primary in Kentucky today, 04/15/08, five weeks to the vote, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 62% to 26%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released two weeks ago, Obama has lost ground among men and women, young and old, conservatives and moderates. In Western KY, Clinton had led by 30, now leads by 43. In Eastern KY, Clinton had led by 52, now leads by 63. in North Central KY, Clinton had led by 30, now leads by 39. In greater Louisville, Clinton had led by 12, now leads by 16.

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Not sure if this has been posted already.

Lost in the most recent ARG poll were these tasty morsels:

Clinton leads 60% to 30% among white voters (79% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 83% to 11% among African American voters (17% of likely Democratic primary voters).

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 51% to 38% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 61% to 30%.

Obama leads 46% to 43% among voters age 18 to 49 (53% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 60% to 32% among voters age 50 and older.

13% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 23% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

Interestingly enough, we get to hear about how AA support is overwhelming for Obama, but what happens in the last few primaries if White support coalesces around Hillary? I mean, a 30 point deficit for Obama among Whites in PA is significant. It seems that the whole primary season has seen Obama earn extensive and expansive support from the AA community. But Whites, although favoring Hillary in swing states, has not really broke this way. Usually Clinton leads by 15 or less among Whites, and relies on women, Seniors and Hispanics to pull her through.

I suppose my question is, what do we make, if accurate, of a polarized racial breakdown between Whites and Blacks in the remaining primaries?

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I'm just a gay graduate student who supports Hillary Clinton. I'm not a political insider, I don't claim to know all the ins and outs of politics. I just wanted to express my opinion regarding Michigan and Florida from not only a Hillary's supporter point of view, but an average American who values democracy and Democracy.

When I see Obama and the media quoting his popular vote lead and pledged delegate lead, there always is an asterisk or parenthesis next to the lead with the notation (ex. Mi/FL). I guess we have become anesthetized to the fact that Obama leads precisely because Michigan and Florida have been excluded from the count.

But I have to ask, how does it actually feel to continue to quote his lead, with having to continue to quote that he is excluding Michigan and Florida?

It is fairly easy for Hillary. When all the votes are counted, she is ahead in pledged delegates. After PA, when all the votes are counted, she will be ahead in the popular vote.

Hillary supporters aren't angry or frustrated for the sake of being angry or frustrated. We see that there are so many ways to tally the votes, which either include or exclude Michigan or Florida that it disturbs us that the only tally being ballyhooed by the media and Obama is the one that excludes Michigan and Florida.

I wonder what the effect of the race would be if the media was obligated to point out both sets of numbers? Would support for Obama decrease if most of the casual voting public knew that right now, this very second, if Florida and Michigan were counted, he would not be ahead in pledged delegates?

Now I understand that Obama supporters do not want him to include Michigan and Florida. It works against him. But even if Hillary loses the nomination, I will be heartened to know that if ALL the votes were included, she would have been ahead.

If one is being intellectually honest, wouldn't you rather be on the side that counts all the votes, rather than being on the side that excludes certain votes?

I understand that there are plenty of politics behind whether or not Michigan and Florida should be counted or not counted. I think both sides have merit. But above that, I think that it is easy for me to argue for Hillary's side is because it is easy to argue that every vote counts.

I think it is natural for people to want this race to be over. And I think it was natural for people prior to the primary to think that Michigan and Florida would not really be instrumental in determining who the next nominee was. That's why it was so easy to play politics with the decision to not seat Michigan and Florida. And let's be clear, both sides played politics with the decision to not seat Michigan and Florida. Hillary said something to the effect that "everyone knows these votes won't count." And hell, Obama, through no external coercion, took his name off the Michigan ballot. Both sides refrained from campaigning in Florida.

But times changed. Times changed because both candidates are so close. Times changed because both candidates will not reach the magic number by their own pledged delegates to clinch the nomination.

But here is where I disagree with Obama. There have been two fair elections in Michigan and Florida. There was no fraud. There was no hanky panky. Wouldn't it be better for the nominee to be determined after all the votes have been counted, in such a close race, rather than allowing it to be first decided by the supers, after not including the enfranchisement of Michigan and Florida? How would it actually be fair to let Guam, American Somoa and American's abroad to affect the Democratic race, but not allow Michigan and Florida to affect the race?

I hope this resonates with people who feel that all the votes in all of the states matter.

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