• comment on a post Working Americans come in all colors over 6 years ago

    No. I'm going to leave out Nevada since it's a caucus, and South Carolina because there were three candidates.

    AZ -15
    CA -1
    CT -1
    DE -16
    MA -18
    MO -18
    NJ -25
    MD -10
    WI +9
    OH -30
    PA -26
    IN -20

    AL -47
    GA -10
    TN -41
    OK -27
    VA +5
    LA -28
    MS -44
    NC -24

    You cannot say that his white performance has been steadily decreasing. You cannot even say that it has been steadily decreasing since March 4th.

  • comment on a post Last call for PA expectations over 6 years ago

    The spreadsheet also gave Obama smaller-than-actual victories in Washington State, Maine, Wisconsin, etc. He's ahead of where the spreadsheet has him.

  • comment on a post Final PA Polls And Prediction Thread over 6 years ago

    I think the undecideds will go for Clinton 2:1 or 3:1.

    At the district level, I think Clinton nets between 1 and 7, with 3 being most likely and at the at-large level she nets probably 5 but maybe 7.

    So the delegate split is probably 83-75 but may be anywhere in between 86-72 and 82-76.

    A couple of polls have shown Obama with a 4% lead in the suburbs (?!), which suggests he might even come out +1 or +3 at the delegate level, but I just don't believe it.

  • (1) Considering Rendell is Jewish, and from Philly (which has the largest concentration of Jewish voters, I would assume), I imagine he won the Jewish vote.

    (2) Considering that New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut account for something like 33% of America's Jewish population (and California another large chunk), I think it's fair to say that in the rest of the country, Obama is winning the Jewish vote. Exit polls showed Clinton getting 60+% of the Jewish vote in NJ and NY, but Obama winning in CT.

  • comment on a post Obama Up 10 in First Oregon Primary Poll over 6 years ago

    gave him smaller leads than the one he has in Oregon right now. Now, Clinton will be able to contest Oregon, but I don't think she'll be able to shrink the margin. With the exception of Ohio and Texas theres nowhere where Clinton has managed to increase the margin from early poll results.

  • comment on a post Obama's Missed Opportunity over 6 years ago

    They're called "field staff". The Obama campaign has been up and running for sixteen months right now. I'm sure there are plenty of under-25s working in politics for the very first time that started in March of 2005.

    Do we really think think the Obama campaign let go of the people who, on their own, organized Boise State's students for Obama starting last summer?

  • Clinton has made several appearances in Clinton, while Obama has only been to Youngstown. People tend to react more favorably to local news coverage than national news or campaign ads.

  • comment on a post Obama's General Election strategy is... ? over 6 years ago

    Obama won't have to spend any money in a lot of the swing states where Kerry had to work: WA, OR, WI, MN, Maybe NH as well. The only big defense is PA.

    That means he can concentrate his resources on OH, IA, MO, VA, FL, CO, and NV. Maybe NC, GA, and SC if he has the resources. We don't have enough polling to know how this will shake out; I think there was one that showed IA big for Obama, so maybe MO is his next best bet.

  • comment on a post California is for guessers over 6 years ago

    But, the NAD poll has very different results from Survey USA in Illinois; SUSA says Obama leads Clinton among Hispanics by more than the white margin.

  • comment on a post Primary Morn over 6 years ago

    Check out these forecasts.

    You left out Minnesota.

    I've got Clinton by 70 delegates. I think the realm of possibilities is anything between 25 delegates and 140 delegates. It mostly depends on the results in CA/AZ/NM, but also MO,MN,CT, and NJ.

  • comment on a post Looking into Feb over 6 years ago

    Using exit polls for primaries is silly ... a lot of those states weren't very competitive. In most states African-Americans will turn out in roughly double the percent of the state that they are, unless the DP is very strong in that state (like NY or CA). And even then it will be at least 133% of their representation in the state.

    In addition to the seven you mentioned, DE is a possibility. He's going to play in UT where he's polled well in the past, maybe KS since it's a caucus. MN is a quasi-caucus too. Alaska has very few Dems and they're all hippies. Probably ID as well. DE is plausible.

    So, I think his zone of competition is IL, GA, AL, DE, SD, CO, MO, KS, MN, UT, ND, ID. Plus as many delegates as he can in CA, NY, and NJ.

    With 23 states up for grabs, he can't win more than a third of them unless something flukey happens.

  • It's entirely plausible. Clinton wins AR, NY, NJ, and CT. Obama wins IL and UT. Who wins the deep south where African-Americans make up 40-55% of the vote? either one can make a cross-cutting coalition. Who wins CA? She'll have four weeks to make the case that the Obama health care plan would leave people out in the cold.

  • comment on a post Election Results Thread over 6 years ago

    Not Larry Sabato has 1 and 6 for the Ds. One more senate seat to go.

  • comment on a post Election Results Thread over 6 years ago

    Looks like 1, 6, 29, and 34 are shaping up nicely. The remaining precincts mean we might put 28 back into play, and it's too early to tell on 33, 37 and 39. 27 does appear to be gone, looking at the remaining votes.

  • comment on a post Election Results Thread over 6 years ago

    1: Miller (D) up 24 votes with 24% reporting

    1. Northam (D) up 52.7-47.2 with 12% reporting
    2. Schultz (D) up  48.4-47.2 (120 votes) with 21% reporting
    3. Pollard (D) up 56-44 with 7% reporting
    4. Colgan (D) up  52.7-47.3 with  5% reporting
    5. no results
    6. Petersen (D) up big; this one's called
    7. no results
    39 no results

    That's a sweep so far, but no guarantees with tight races and few precincts reporting.

    Man, I miss election nights.

    Beshear back above 60%. Wahoo!


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