Why the Hillary people are desperate and lashing out

 Charlie Cook is mr CW in Washington at one point he wrote Hillary had an 85% chance to win the nomination. Now he is saying what the Hillary people must know, if she loses both Iowa and NH she's done.
http://nationaljournal.com/cook.htm
<It's hard to imagine how she would survive back-to-back losses in states where she once led, although her lead in Iowa has never been particularly wide. Wins in Iowa and New Hampshire for Obama would make him virtually unstoppable.>

   So now with the Huge grassroots anti-war hero Carol Shea Porter aboard Obama stands a good chance of winning both Iowa and NH. Her poll nubers in the 2 states have collapsed and national polls while narrowing are not meaningfull, Hillary will be seen as a twice beaton candidate by the voters that saw her up close and personal for a year. We have a word for that unelectable.

 

Tags: Hillary Obama 2008 (all tags)

Comments

27 Comments

Re:

Keep lashing out Hillary!  Don't let that rookie from Illinois get away with a thing!

by Regan 2007-12-11 11:26AM | 0 recs
nah

she wouldn't be finished and no one is desperate but you.

by MollieBradford 2007-12-11 11:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Why the Hillary people are desperate and lashi

oh boy - lets see - what dem prez lost iowa and nh and came back to win the WH?

hmmmm....

again, you guys concentrate on winning the pundits, we will concentrate on winning delegates.

by Seymour Glass 2007-12-11 11:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Why the Hillary people are desperate and lashi

Amen.

by Andre Walker 2007-12-11 11:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Why the Hillary people are desperate and lashi

Just needed to point something out...

...In 1992, Bill Clinton finished in single digits in Iowa and finished second in New Hampshire.  Technically, yes, Bill Clinton lost Iowa and New Hampshire.  In fact, Clinton didn't win his first state until he reached my home state of Georgia.  All the while though, Clinton was steadily racking up delegates.

What I'm saying is that I could care less who comes in first in Iowa or New Hampshire.  I'm more concerned about the delegate count.  That's the only vote that matters.  You need 50% to get nominated on the first ballot.  If you don't have 50%, then the delegates are released and vote their own preferences.

by Andre Walker 2007-12-11 11:28AM | 0 recs
well

Iowa was not contested. Clinton did not have to deal with 2 back to back loses where he's invested everything.

by nevadadem 2007-12-11 11:30AM | 0 recs
Re: well

and it's Charlie Cook not me making this point. That means alot of the pary establishment will read cook's CW and bail on Hillary if she loses the first 2. You want loyalty get a dog, these people will want to get good with Obama the same way they did with Kerry in 2004. that's the reason for the Clinton panic.

by nevadadem 2007-12-11 11:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Why the Hillary people are desperate and lashi

And wasn't the main competition Paul Tsongas, who had cancer?  

The other things this reminds me of is bimbo eruptions.  The NYTimes threatened earlier this year to reveal Clinton's private life.  I wonder if they are just sitting on it for the right time or have been scared off.  Either way, there are still potential bimbo eruptions for Hillary to navigate.

by Javier Doval 2007-12-11 11:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Why the Hillary people are desperate and lashi

Clinton had spent nothing in Iowa and very little in NH that year. He was well prepared to win the southern states, in terms of resources and momentum.

Thats why I still can't understand Hillary's decision to contest Iowa. She is a national, not regional candidate, and she could have readily simply blown off Iowa, played to place in NH and put her big money into the Feb 5 states.

The only reason she didn't is that she needed to kill Edwards in Iowa. Now, with at least 15m invested in early states, she needs to win, not because of momentum but because she can't replenish her coffers without new supporters that would come with a narrowing of the field.

by desmoulins 2007-12-11 12:29PM | 0 recs
the Porter endorsement scared the shit

out of you guys. she might be worth thousands of activist woman votes.

by nevadadem 2007-12-11 11:29AM | 0 recs
Re: the Porter endorsement scared the shit

Oh come on now.

How many delegates does New Hampshire have again?

Let me pull out my Call to the Convention and see...

...oh yeah, 30.  Georgia has 104.  I could care less whom Carol Shea-Porter is supporting.  Hillary wins Georgia (and she's currently leading here), and that wipes out New Hampshire's piddly little group of 30 delegates.

by Andre Walker 2007-12-11 11:32AM | 0 recs
ah the national candidate strategy

good luck with that even Charlie Cook doesn't buy it.

by nevadadem 2007-12-11 11:34AM | 0 recs
Re: ah the national candidate strategy

There's no national strategy here.

I'm just stating the obvious.

You can lose New Hampshire and bounce back with a win in Georgia.  Georgia is the largest state east of the Mississippi River.  Georgia has 104 delegates.  Georgia has 15 electoral votes.  

In other words, I'm not really concerned about Iowa or New Hampshire because at the end of the day, Georgia has more votes than Iowa and New Hampshire combined.

Sure, it would be nice to win Iowa and New Hampshire because it would put the nomination away early.  But hey, my state has 104 delegates and my state is a state that Bill Clinton carried in 1992.  We supported Clinton when Iowa and New Hampshire didn't.  In short, I'll put Georgia's 104 delegates up against Iowa and New Hampshire's 86 combined delegates any day of the week.

by Andre Walker 2007-12-11 11:53AM | 0 recs
A few things

I don't think anyone is desperate or lashing out.  If it helps you to sleep dreaming such things then by all means, go ahead.

However, I do think that Clinton supporters are more aware of what they face.   2 months ago the Obama and Edwards campaigns showed they were going to stop at nothing.

At the same time, over the last 2 months every word out of Bill and Hillary's mouth has been dissected and carefully parsed by the press.  Meanwhile Edwards and Obama have been free to attack at will.

When Clinton attacks back, the media warns or backlash, or her opponents call her "petty".   There is a double standard at work there.

I think win lose or draw Clinton supporters are saying they are going to fight for their candidate, since it appears that that is what everyone else is doing.

Me, I don't see how Obama can win.  He isn't going to sweep the early states.  Clinton will have wins under belt headed into Feb 5 and then is over.   But still, I don't think Obama, or Edwards for that matter deserve the freedom to say and do that they will, while Clinton (or her supporters) just sit back and take it.

by dpANDREWS 2007-12-11 11:30AM | 0 recs
Re: A few things

whining about the media, you liked it when they called her inevitable all the time.

by nevadadem 2007-12-11 11:33AM | 0 recs
How dumb is the Media CW

Just listen to Chris Matthews.

In one segment he tells us that the Republicans doesn't need to win the early states, that he can wrap it up in the big states later.

Then in the next he tells us the Democrats has to win the early states or else.

I don't get it.

by dpANDREWS 2007-12-11 11:31AM | 0 recs
Re: How dumb is the Media CW

Thats the history; only once have the Democrats nominated a candidate that didn't win Iowa or NH, and that was a candidate whose strategy banked on later contests. As for the republicans, I don't have a clue.

by desmoulins 2007-12-11 12:31PM | 0 recs
Maybe

I don't think that she would be finished if she lost both Iowa and New Hampshire, but I do believe she would be deeply damaged.  Nevadadem is correct in saying that voters seeing a front running candidate defeated twice in a row will be crippling.  Of course, her worst case is that the same person defeats her in Iowa and New Hampshire.  If say Edwards wins Iowa and Obama wins New Hampshire, her defeats will not be as damaging, IMO.  There would not be a new front runner then and all three candidates would be viable until the February 5th primaries take place.

by minvis 2007-12-11 11:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Maybe

agree with that Obama needs to win both to break her  if he does though if you don't think people that endorsed her won't be jumping ship you don't know politics. You can't make electability arguments by losing.

by nevadadem 2007-12-11 11:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Maybe
Obama! because 51% isn't enough! What does that mean anyway? Presidential politics for the last three decades has found its place in the 45%-55% range. So a 52% Obama win in the GE would be a victory in your estimation?
by Zeitgeist9000 2007-12-11 11:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Maybe

"silent majority of reagan democrats"

And these people would break Hillary because?

by General Sherman 2007-12-11 12:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Why the Hillary people are desperate and lashi

I don't want a Democrat who thinks that guns should be banned, Mr. Obama is that person and now he blames Edwards for closing the Maytag factories in IA.

Edwards supporters: This is your time to come out and expose this fraud, stop being against Hillary. Obama is the one who is smearing him; Hillary never did.

by American1989 2007-12-11 11:51AM | 0 recs
Obama wants to take my handgun!

Wait a minute ...  I don't own a handgun.

Ah well forget I said anything.

by dpANDREWS 2007-12-11 11:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Why the Hillary people

No one is lashing out, he's now the frontrunner in a few states and that goes with the territory- as Clinton supporters have been told ad nauseam- so quit whining and being a crybaby about it.

by reasonwarrior 2007-12-11 12:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Why the Hillary people

I don't believe the diarist is whining at all, quite the opposite.

by minvis 2007-12-11 12:20PM | 0 recs
Remember

Bill Clinton was not heavily favored to win the nomination when he ran.

Hillary , on the other hand , is seen as one of the strogest frontrunner in decades and if she loses Iowa and NH , it will be huge media news that wont play well for her.

by Prodigy 2007-12-11 01:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Why the Hillary people are desperate and lashi

No problem. Hillary's going to win Iowa. And New Hampshire. And everywhere else.

by ThinkingDem 2007-12-11 03:08PM | 0 recs

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