Obama's dramatic comeback victory in SC

At 74% precincts reporting in the SC primary, the numbers are at: Obama (54%), Clinton (27%) and Edwards (19%).

I did some calculations using exit polls (using gender cross tabs):

which estimate gives roughly the same numbers.

I also did some computations using Pollster.com's SC polls page, and interestingly, Hillary led Obama in monthly averages all the way till December:

Here is a plot of the polling numbers in SC for Obama, Clinton and Edwards over the course of the campaign since December of 2006:

which shows that Clinton led most of way through November and by whopping margins at many times during that period.

The spreadsheet for all of these computations is here.

Clearly, Barack Obama has posted a dramatic comeback victory in South Carolina. Congratulations to Team Obama!

Tags: 2008, Primary, South Carolina (all tags)

Comments

22 Comments

Go Barack!

by NeuvoLiberal 2008-01-26 04:01PM | 0 recs
Well done

yet another reason why the only polls before Iowa are the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire.

by fladem 2008-01-26 05:54PM | 0 recs
Obama beat both the Clintons combined by 27%

Of course, it is dramatic.

by NeuvoLiberal 2008-01-26 04:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's dramatic comeback victory in SC

Dramatic comeback?  What ridiculous spin.  There was no comeback, and there was nothing dramatic about the results.  It only further shows that Obama can only count on African American support.  This victory will have little to no effect on Feb 5, especially after Hillary dominates in Florida.

by musicpvm 2008-01-26 04:22PM | 0 recs
Obama beat the pants off of the Clintons in IA

and now SC, despite the nasty tactics the Clinton camp has been using since December:

Clinton attacks Obama | Incident Tracker

The Clintons should ashamed of themselves for trying to inject the race card with utter disregard for the future of the Democrat party and the country for in a pursuit of power.

No one will ever mistake Bill Clinton for "the first black President" after this.

by NeuvoLiberal 2008-01-26 04:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama beat the pants off of the Clintons in IA

The Clintons should be ashamed of themselves?  FOR WHAT!?  For standing up for African Americans for the last 20+ years so their words can be twisted and they can be labelled as racists by a race baiter?  The only candidate that should be ashamed is Obama.  I can't believe I even repsected this guy a few months ago.

by musicpvm 2008-01-26 04:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama beat the pants off of the Clintons in IA

"The Clintons should be ashamed of themselves?  FOR WHAT!?"

For this (and there is more):


Clinton attacks Obama. Incident Tracker

1 Barack Obama May Have Been a Drug Dealer!
6 Shuck and Jive
7 BET Founder Bob Johnson Attacks
8 Three Volunteers Resign for Spreading MADRASSA EMAIL
9 Bob Kerrey and his Dog Whistle
10 "Beautiful Symbol"
11 "Fairy Tale" & "Kid"
12 "False Hopes"
13 Bill Clinton's Charlie Rose Interview ("roll of dice")
14 "I just don't want to see us fall backwards"
16 Clinton Team Quietly Raise Obama's Cocaine Use
17 Geraldine Ferraro Blames Obama for Race Talk
18 Charlie Rangel Blames Obama for Race Talk
19 Rangel: Obama put drug use in book to sell books
20 The "Spadework" Comment on The Today Show
21 The "Spadework" Comment in JULY 2007
21 Playing on the Obama-will-be-assassinated fears
23- Black and Brown Instigation
24- Lawd, the Black Man will DOOM..DOOM the entire ticket
30 Obama "Unwilling to take a stand on choice"
32- Bill Clinton says people in South Carolina will vote for Obama only because he's black
Just in:
Bill Clinton:"Jesse Jackson won South Carolina in '84 and '88

"For standing up for African Americans for the last 20+ years"

What did Bill Clinton do for blacks that's so special, which other self-respecting Democrats wouldn't have done if they were in his shoes?

by NeuvoLiberal 2008-01-26 05:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama beat the pants off of the Clintons in IA

"spadework"?  Holy shit, this is how the campaign of hope to win?

Every time I get to think Obama might actually represent something special, you guys drag me right back down with the cries of racism.

by Steve M 2008-01-26 05:05PM | 0 recs
Read the

context here first. I am just reporting from that catalog of Clintonite dirty tactis vs Obama. There is one way I will not be pointing this out: if an only if the Clintons and Clinton camp stops race baiting (Bill Clinton just did so with his Jesse Jackson BS remark).

It's the Clintons that you should be aghast at.

by NeuvoLiberal 2008-01-26 05:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Read the

You think there is something racist about the word "spadework."

That is just fucking insane.

One way Obama can assure himself of disaster among white voters, other than the most liberal, is if people get to thinking that an Obama Administration would mean four years of having to watch every word you say.

If you're alienating me with this kind of talk I hate to think what you'll do to those less liberal than myself.

by Steve M 2008-01-26 05:16PM | 0 recs
Dude, you're feigning it.

I told you I am just reporting what's posted at that site. Yes, some black folks do take offense to "spade" and "spadework". I didn't say that I do. Obama didn't say that he does. I wasn't editorializing. Go get some rest.

by NeuvoLiberal 2008-01-26 05:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Dude, you're feigning it.

I AM NOT FUCKING FEIGNING IT.

by Steve M 2008-01-26 05:24PM | 0 recs
Let me tell you what ARE positively disgusting

These are:

1. Barack Obama May Have Been a Drug Dealer!
7 BET Founder Bob Johnson Attacks
8 Three Volunteers Resign for Spreading MADRASSA EMAIL
9 Bob Kerrey and his Dog Whistle
11 "Fairy Tale" & "Kid"
12 "False Hopes"
13 Bill Clinton's Charlie Rose Interview ("roll of dice")
16 Clinton Team Quietly Raise Obama's Cocaine Use
32- Bill Clinton says people in South Carolina will vote for Obama only because he's black
Bill Clinton:"Jesse Jackson won South Carolina in '84 and '88

You should be disgusted at the Clinton camp for engaging in this sort of thing, instead of bitching about something that does happen to be sensitive word for some people.

by NeuvoLiberal 2008-01-26 05:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Let me tell you what ARE positively disgusting

I'm sensing you will never, ever understand.  I tried to warn you.

by Steve M 2008-01-26 05:38PM | 0 recs
It's Bill Clinton that needs to

stop baiting the race. If not, he will pay a heavy price with his legacy.

by NeuvoLiberal 2008-01-26 05:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama beat the pants off of the Clintons in IA

Why are you race baiting. There's no need for it. Your guy won and you go completely off the rails.  

by ottovbvs 2008-01-26 04:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama beat the pants off of the Clintons in IA

Bill just went off the rails trying to diminish Obama's victory. Bill Clinton needs to stop this crap once and for all, if he wants to retain any respect whatsoever towards himself and towards the office he held.

by NeuvoLiberal 2008-01-26 05:06PM | 0 recs
Wow!

Obama kicked some serious ass!

by puma 2008-01-26 04:35PM | 0 recs
DRAMATIC COMEBACK!!?!?

ROFL dramatic comeback. Thats the most hilarious shit and the best spin of the night.

It wasn't a comeback. It was a very impressive victory victory. It was like University of Florida playing Johnson and Wales at home. The outcome wasn't expected to be this big, definitely not a comeback.

by falcon4e 2008-01-26 04:58PM | 0 recs
I am glad you enjoyed.

Hillary did lead Obama on the average in December in SC.

by NeuvoLiberal 2008-01-26 05:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's dramatic comeback victory in SC

Here we go.

We got PUMA & NeuroLibe going over the top.!

Yes, keep going with the unnecessary antics.

Just don't whine & cry again when these Clinton supporters give you payback very soon.

Then, we'll have PUMA posting how depressing it is.

Obama won a state that Jesse Jackson carried twice.

80% of Black people voted for Obama in a turnout that was over 50% black.

Two white candidates split the vote.

75% of white candidates did not vote for Obama.

If you want to rub it in, Wait until the rest of America votes.

Lets see the arrogance of the two of you when Florida comes in 3 days. Lets see the arrogance of both of you come  Feb 5th.

Okay, until then....

BTW, Comeback my behind. Every one expected African-Americans would rally around Obama. All Obama needed to do was win one state. IA

But don't worry, life is sometimes fair. Wait & see how White & Brown voters will respond starting Tuesday.

Since both of you seem to ENJOY the Race angle, you will get to see the other side respond. I can guarantee you, the result will NOT EVEN BE CLOSE to South Carolina.

What a country! Only in America!

by labanman 2008-01-26 05:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's dramatic comeback victory in SC
I don't think it was a "comeback
- he was expected to win.  I will admit it hurts though and I had hoped Hillary could win- congrats to him.  If he wins Florida, now THAT will be a comeback.
by reasonwarrior 2008-01-27 01:19AM | 0 recs

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