Exit polls: O (39.44%), H (38.12%), E (15.72%)

A quick post as I didn't see this reported on the TV shows.

If we calculate the total percentages from CNN exit polls, using male/female split numbers given, we get these results:

(Richardson 4.72%, Kucinich 1.43% not in this screenshot of the table).

My spreadsheet is here: NH Results/exit polls Spreadsheet.

Of course, these are only exit polls which have sampling and other forms of errors built in. The race is hence too close to call.

Concord Monitor results page.

Please free to use this as a results open thread.

Update: While responding to a comment, I calculated the average of polls (NH@pollster.com) for NH), from Jan 1-2, i.e. just prior to the IA caucuses. The table is in the "PreIAPolls" page of the spreadsheet. Here's a snapshot of the table, which shows that HRC led Obama in NH by 4.5% entering the Iowa caucuses.

Pre-Iowa Caucus Poll averages for New-Hampshire

Tags: 2008 election, New Hampshire, Presidential Race (all tags)

Comments

7 Comments

Tip jar.

it may take some time for a winner to be declared.

by NeuvoLiberal 2008-01-08 03:54PM | 0 recs
CNN updated their exit poll (I don't know why)

My updated diary can be found at Daily Kos.

by NeuvoLiberal 2008-01-08 05:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Exit polls: O(39.44%), HRC (38.12%), E(15.72%)

Damn, that is VERY close. With Obama showing 10-12 point leads in NH, a 1-3 point loss is not good. Of course, the media will say a win is a win, no Clinton comeback. I think Clinton has to win it for it to matter.

by RJEvans 2008-01-08 04:07PM | 0 recs
no way

hillary has already won.

This is a fight for delegates and media perception.

No one can continue the same media storyline with credibility.

Hillary has her comeback started before she even lost.

If she loses by less than 10 and wins the dem vote of the primary.  She has the talking points to get donors, and pump up the troops.

Now she can fight in nevada and south carolina, and win feb 5.

by yellowdem1129 2008-01-08 04:15PM | 0 recs
Hilary led by 4.5% entering Iowa caucuses

So, in the net, if Obama win NH, then he would have done rather well, overall.

If HRC win NH, then next major showdown will be SC, of course. It isn't clear how NV will work as a function of the result here.

by NeuvoLiberal 2008-01-08 04:45PM | 0 recs
Its over NL

spreadsheets and all.

by okamichan13 2008-01-08 06:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Its over NL

sure. I was posting updates in my DK version of this diary.

by NeuvoLiberal 2008-01-09 04:51AM | 0 recs

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