Obama's stock has not been discounted like Clinton or McCain. He has received great press. That will change.

Clinton's floor is about 47%. She has literally been hit over 100 times more with negative press than Obama. Her numbers will only go up, they certainly won't go down. McCain will probably lose a 3-5 percentage points.

Obama's numbers will head south once he is continually ripped by the Republicans and media. It is a given. He should be up by about 20 points right now, but he's not. That means about 12 more years of Republicans in the Whitehouse.

You decide who you think is most suited for the office based on personal observation.  You don't rely on polls, you don't rely on enamored reporters, and you don't get cowed by Republican talking points.  Now, if following that advice leads you to Obama, fine.  But, from what I can see, Obama is the candidate of group think.

Mike just proved that in this diary. We also saw this happen in 2004 when John Kerry was supposedly on track to beat Bush in early 2004 (remember all the polls showing Kerry beating Bush while Bush beat Dean?), only to lose narrowly in the fall. Polling this early, before we have a nominee, isn't very reliable. And returning to this year, Obama hasn't yet faced much scrutiny from the media or attacks from the GOP... So of course, his approval numbers are high now. But what happens when the attacks begin? Will he be ready for it? I'm just not sure.

I was. I quit the Democratic party in August 1988 and voted for George Bush. Why do you think independents are the fasting growing segment of voters?

...have a habit of sending lambs to the slaughter. Obama fits the pattern of McGovern, Dukakis, Kerry...all candidates, oddly, with a strong Mass. political connection. Cloning the Duval Patrick campaign isn't going to work when we hit red and borderline states. The Clinton's have won in the south and elseweher.

Good point.

True, but as you know, the sitting President's popularity (or lack thereof) looms over any campaign to replace him, particularly over his own party.

But we are in two wars now. Americans will not hand over the keys to a first term Senator who began his run after 1.5 years in the Senate.

The man isn't up by much in the polls and the knives haven't even been sharpened yet.

How is a drug experimenting, plagerist, who votes "present" going to beat a war hero with decades of foreign policy experience? It will not happen.

Obama's best chance will be to run for the presidency in 2016 as a sitting V.P. after Hillary has schooled him for 8 years.

Hillary loses to McCain = Mondale loses to Reagan

Reagan was running for reelection and McCain is not so it's a bad analogy. It's the same kind of mixed up thinking that would lead to nominating Obama. We can do better, Yes We Can.

that one worked out well

yes.   And I think only Hillary is savvy enough to deflect the attack and win.

Obama has received a red carpet treatment from the media so far.  If it was a fair game, the media should conduct a due diligence on  him the same way they did on Hillary.  

So the bottom line is I don't trust the poll that said Obama will beat McCain. My instinct says the best bet would be Hillary.

No, we should think twice before voting someone who is very likely to lose in November.

This will be the biggest payback by Liberal White democrats to Black Democrats for all the years of being the most loyal Democratic voters.

Its going for History as the main reason regardless of what happens in November

I have no problems with that. Without the votes of Blacks, Democrats would not be the majority today.

But this will be a very heavy price to pay for All Americans. Four more years of Republican rule.

I stand with my prediction. Obama will do worst than John Kerry & will be another Michael Dukakis.

And conservatives will be laughing their head off because of the stupidity of liberals.

Republicans know how to win. We don't.

Most liberals are idealist. Who are so out of touch with mainstream america.

When will they understand this simple formula.

White Liberal Democrats DOES NOT EQUAL White voters in GENERAL.

White Liberal Democrats are to the Left of MOST WHITE AMERICANS!

The american electoral is & has always been a right of center leaning group of voters.

Only 5 Blacks have ever won Statewide higher office in only 3 states. Two of those states are as Blue as the ocean.

That's 47 states have never elected a black for higher statewide office!

Now Liberals have concluded that America is ready for Barack Hussein Obama to carry a national election.

That's what I call Big Time Out of Touch!

Reagan's popularity while higher than Bush's was not super high. There was definite Reagan fatigue.

Obama in debates has a tendency to come off as an academic and a bit dispassionate. Recall the Kitty raped question. Obama strikes me as being a potential for that type of situation.

Bush had a military record of some note and that video of him being picked up on the sub. McCain has the POW thing. Dukakis had the helmet in  the tank ride. Will Obama have the goofy moment?

And of course Dukakis had Willy Horton. You can talk about the ad all you want, but it was effective. What worries some of us anti-Obama people is not the candidate himself but that his followers allow no questions and think the media has been hard on him. He hasn't been touched yet. Perhaps he won't be. But God forbid there's a surprise waiting.

The point is that polls this far out don't mean squat.

We were not at war in 1988, we are in two now and there are many other huge international problems on the horizon.

The rightwing echo-chamber is far more evolved than it was in 1988. Obama is far less prepared than Dukakis was and the problems are enormous now. I don't think that the "empty suit" can prevail in this climate. America has seen what an "empty suit" can do.

There is too much at stake for "sizzle" we need to offer up some "steak".