I voted for Claire McCaskill this morning - about 50 minutes after the polls had opened. I was the 45th voter in a precinct with approximately 2000 registered voters.
McCaskill would have a grand time effectively working over presumptive republican nominee Matt "baby" Blunt. It'd be fun and very instructive to watch.
I don't anticipate much crossover voting. In the Missouri primary you must request a party ballot - you can't vote for one office in one party and then switch to another party ballot for another office. There are enough contested primaries on the republican ballot at all levels (including U.S. Senate) that I don't think the crossover impact will be significant.
The party machine would need operating parts to be effective for GOTV. Missouri Democratic Party regulars are pragmatic, if nothing else. They'll vote for the candidate who they think can win in November, even though they may have publically contributed to the campaign of another.
I heard of polling which showed Holden up and another tracking poll that showed him losing a point a day (possibly the undecideds breaking to McCaskill). I didn't see the polls or the numbers.
There are other Democratic primary races to watch - Lieutenant Governor [former Secretary of State Bekki Cook (who I voted for)and state senator Ken Jacob - some nasty ads from Jacob], State Treasurer [Jason Klumb and two others - I guess it's evident who I voted for in this one]. Bekki Cook has statewide name recognition. Jason Klumb is someone to watch - a number of national figures from Missouri started in this office. My dream candidate in the republican State Treasurer contest is state senator Sarah Steeleman - she had the audacity to run on family values. I just love Missouri politics...
I stopped by the County Courthouse to drop of a 48 hour campaign finance report at the County Clerk's office. They said they anticipated high turnout in our semi-rural county.
Very interesting - that you'd bother to post such here. We can smell the fear.
Oh, Karl, by the way, have you and "Scooter" dodged the grand jury investigating that felony outing of a national intelligence operative? I believe that's covered under Title 50, Chapter 15, Section 421.http://www4.law.cornell.edu/uscode/50/421.html
There are some interesting stories to hear from delegates. Not the "super delegates", the PLEO, or the party regulars, but from the Joe or Jane average who decided they had enough, wanted to try and make a difference, and somehow managed to get elected as a delegate.
Try and find them if you can make it to the floor (they'll be the ones with eyes wide open and jaw dropped in disbelief the first time they walk out on the floor). Ask them why they're attending the convention and how'd they get there.
And, every time you see anyone from Faux News point at them, say something like, "Hey look, it's Faux News! What has Karl told you to cover today?" and laugh loudly. And, if you see her, tell Rita Crosby her light is bad.
You ask people who are usually in the know and they tell you they don't know. The problem with polling in a primary like this is that the turnout models don't do anyone much good - yeah, they can look at the crosstabs to get a general feel for the electorate, but I don't think anyone is getting an accurate fix on what the turnout is going to be. Especially with Amendment 2 (the "gay marriage ban" constitutional amendment) on the August 3rd ballot.
One tidbit of conventional wisdom I'm hearing: if turnout is low, Governor Bob Holden wins the primary. If turnout is high, State Auditor Claire McCaskill wins.
It's starting to get nasty, too. The television ads are making party regulars squeamish. Some people fear the damage this primary may do to the eventual victor come the general election. But, then again, republican Matt "baby" Blunt isn't the sharpest knife in the drawer.
Bob Graham's intelligence bonafides trump potty mouth's continued insistence that he knows things that he can't tell anyone about. I can see the vice presidential debate now - Dick Cheney mouths off about his take on the intelligence and Bob Graham replies, "I see that you, like Condi Rice, didn't bother to read any footnotes. I did."
So, the newly sovereign government of Iraq will put Saddam Hussein on trial and Arlen Specter wants the United States Senate to pass a resolution, after first running the idea past dubya, to move the trial up before the republican national convention? Curiouser and curiouser. I wonder who's really in control. But, of course, our pathetic media will ignore all that and chase the shiny bauble.
Hmmm. Karl must have had a "heads up" on the Plame affair indictments. That's got to be it.
Ike Skelton (D-Missouri) represents the 4th Congressional District. He was first elected to the seat in 1976 and would definitely not be considered a liberal. He is the ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee.
I heard him speak at a party function in my community this past Sunday. He stated that the chairman of the committee won't allow hearings on this subject. He also stated that should the Democrats take over the House in the coming election the first order of business for the Armed Services Committee would be to reinstate the Oversight Subcommittee. The republicans got rid of it.
Howard Dean as the party's vice presidential candidate makes some sense, especially when considering his significant national constituency. I don't know how much of it is still intact, but I suspect it would still have a positive effect. This is a choice which would definitely qualify as a bold move on the part of the Kerry campaign. Though, I believe the knives of Howard Dean's detractors would come out again - with particularly vicious fervor.
I'd pay serious money to watch Howard Dean take on the puppet master in the vice presidential debate, wouldn't you? John Edwards or Wesley Clark would be fun to watch, too.
As for conventional wisdom, Dick Gephardt placed seventh in the Missouri primary after he dropped out. I'm not too sure that his Missouri coattails in the general election would be very long or loyal.
If Howard Dean were to be on the ticket the media would have to direct some introspection and re-examine their coverage of the Dean campaign and their own role during the primaries. Now, that's something that'll never happen.
These stories are anecdotal and reconstructed from memory, to be sure, but in past conversations with those comforted by the corporate media I get the distinct impression that they don't question authority, nor do they condone such on the part of others.
One individual angrily took issue with my holding a "Faux News Channel, fascist groupies" sign at a vigil [It spoofs the logo quite nicely, I might add]. He said, "I don't like your sign. There's too much liberal bias on CBS, NBC, ABC and CNN. What's wrong with a network that has a conservative viewpoint?" One of my colleagues answered, "But, they're supposed to be fair and balanced." I responded, "It's about competence. And, I don't think much of CBS, NBC, ABC, or CNN, either."
In another instance I was challenged in a bar by a very conservative friend (and several others)because I was wearing a Dean pin. They extolled the virtues of their fearless leader. I answered, "Title 50, Chapter 15, Section 421. It's a felony." "What's that?" "At least two individuals working in the White House divulged the identity of a national intelligence operative - who happened to be working on weapons of mass destruction." "I've never heard of it." "What news do you watch?" "We watch Bill O'Rielly."
Unlike the "coventional wisdom" campaign strategies which were implemented for the 2002 elections and which lead to electoral disaster, I like the unconventional thinking which is taking place.
The republicans utilize their money advantage and scheduling to set up the Democratic Party for a structural disadvantage. Conventional thinking says we can't do anything about it. Unconventional thinking tells us to "change the gravitational constant".
Or, in words attributed to James Carville, "When your opponent is drowning, throw the bastard an anvil.."
Let's throw the bastards many anvils - right now dubya's campaign is burning massive amounts of money to slowly lose ground. Let's make them burn even more money in the media clutter and noise leading up to the November election.