Analysis of Survey USA's 18 AUG 2005 Senator Approval Poll
by metonym, Fri Aug 19, 2005 at 02:15:57 AM EDT
Here are some of my findings:
a. Sen. ENZI (R-WY) +25 (49th to 24th)
62 (56) / 23 (30) / 39 (26) (A/D/N)
Perhaps Senator Enzi procured funds for the
state of Wyoming in the recent Energy Bill.
Perhaps others can provide an explanation
as to why his net approval increased from
26 to 39% over the past two months.
b. Sen. GRAHAM (R-SC) +22 (62nd to 40th)
57 (53) / 30 (34) / 27 (19)
Perhaps South Carolinians have finally
forgiven Senator Graham for serving as a
member for the notorious Gang of Fourteen.
Senator Warner's rank also increased
dramatically. Interestingly, the ranks of
Democratic Senators who participated in the
Gang of Fourteen did not shift so radically.
c. Sen. WARNER (R-VA) +20 (60th to 40th)
57 (53) / 30 (32) / 27 (21)
This shift in rank most probably can be
explaind by this Senator's participation in
the Gang of Fourteen.
d. Sen. HUTCHISON (R-TX) -20 (19th to 39th)
57 (64) / 29 (26) / 28 (38)
It seems Kay Bailey Hutchison has had a
net loss of her base. If this continues,
we may have a competitive Senate race for
her seat in 2006. We may wish to explore
why this has occurred. We may also want to
determine if and how much the presence of
Cindy Sheehan in Crawford, Texas, will sway
public opinion.
e. Sen. AKAKA (D-HI) -22 (24th to 46th)
56 (62) / 32 (24) / 24 (38)
Why has Senator Akaka's net approval
dropped fourteen points in the last two
months? This is worth exploring, as he is
defending his seat in 2006.
f. Sen. BOND (R-MO) +20 (69th to 49th)
55 (52) / 32 (35) / 23 (17)
It seems Senator Bond's ability to procure
funds for highways outside of Kansas City
has helped him improve his reputation. Too
bad his maneuvering did not provide Sen.
Talent with any noticeable leverage.
g. Sen. FEINGOLD (D-WI) -32 (26th to 58th)
54 (62) / 38 (33) / 16 (29)
Perhaps Presidential aspirations hurt one's
ratings. Or perhaps Feingold is parlaying
his popularity with his recent demands for
withdrawl. We should watch him and his
rankings more closely, as this is indeed a
very dramatic shift.
h. Sen. ENSIGN (R-NV) +24 (83rd to 59th)
53 (49) / 31 (34) / 22 (15)
Can anyone explain why Ensign's popularity
with Nevadans is suddenly increasing? I am
not aware of any interesting or innovative
legislation proposed by this Senator, and he
is not yet campaigning for his Senate seat.
I ask this as we will have to find an
opponent to be funded by the netrooks given
Reid's pragmatic decision to not try to
depose his ostensible "friend."
i. Sen. LINCOLN (D-AR) -20 (44th to 64th)
52 (58) / 34 (33) / 18 (25)
Sen. Lincoln is losing traction in
Arkansas. Can anyone explain why this
might be the case?
j. Sen. SPECTER (R-PA) -20 (57th to 77th)
49 (54) / 40 (36) / 9 (18)
Is the net loss of 9% a result of his
recent statements on Roberts?
k. Sen. CANTWELL (D-WA) -36 (52nd to 88th)
47 (55) / 37 (30) / 10 (25)
Senator Cantwell took the biggest dive out
of all Senators. Her net approval plunged
15%, and she has lost 8% of her
supporters, who have seemingly decided
they are no longer impressed with her
performance. This is a real cause for
concern, and I provide more insight below
and in a diary I posted entitled "Sen.
Maria Cantwell (D-WA)."
l. Sen. CORZINE (D-NJ) -22 (70th to 92nd)
46 (52) / 40 (36) / 6 (16)
Perhaps this is a result of his
run for Governor. It may also be a
result of the GOP's attempt to transform
loan made to a former girlfriend into a
media spectacle.
2006 INCUMBENTS
a. Sen. SNOWE (R-ME)
With the highest approval rating of all
Senators, Snowe will most probably keep
her seat. This should not, however,
deter us from fielding an opponent. Her
net approval has increased a whole 8%.
b. Sen. BYRD (D-WV)
I guess the commercial launched by the
GOP had the paradoxical effect of earning
Byrd more support. His net approval has
increased five points, and his ranking
increased from 23rd to 15th. Byrd seems
inviolable.
c. Sen. NELSON (D-NE)
Senator Nelson's numbers have remained
relatively stable. I imagine he will win
his race.
d. Sen. HUTCHISON (R-TX)
Note my comments above. What we need to
do is locate the reasons why her net
approval ratings dived a whole 10%. If
we can somehow exploit these causes and
raise public awareness, we may be able
to provide Radnofsky or whoever else
emerges from the Democratic primary to
give Hutchison a Senate race she will
never forget. Only 57% of Texans approve
of her job as Senator, and Cornyn's numbers
are worse (43/36).
e. Sen. AKAKA (D-HI)
Only 56% of Hawaiins approve of Senator
Akaka. Why is this the case? And how can
we help increase his popularity before a
Republican opponent surfaces? We really
cannot afford to spend too much money
defending this race.
f. Sen. CHAFEE (R-RI)
55% of Rhode Islanders approve of Chafee,
while 37% disapprove. Perhaps his recent
tour of Rhode Island has helped him improve
his reputation with his constituents. He
will still have a competitive race,
however, and I imagine the nomination of
Roberts will have an effect on his ratings.
g. Sen. ENSIGN (R-NV)
53/31 is the approval/disapproval ratio for
Ensign. Yes, his approval ratings have
skyrocketed in the past to months with a
net increase of 7%, but I imagine a strong
opponent can quickly reverse this trend.
See my comments above.
h. Sen. ALLEN (R-VA)
Senator Allen's approval ratings have
remained relatively stable, although his
net approval has decreased 2%. With an
approval/disapproval ratio of 52/33 he is
a potentially vulnerable candidate. When
will Gov. Warner finally announce?
i. Sen. FRIST (R-TN) open seat
Although Frist's ratings are relatively
stable, his net approval has decreased
4%. This does not bode well for the GOP
in 2006. Whether this is a result of his
position as Majority Leader, or whether it
is a reaction to his Presidential
ambitions, this decrease in support will
not provide the Republican candidate with
any coattails on which to ride. Indeed,
his approval/disapproval ratio is 49/41.
j. Sen. KYL (R-AZ)
Kyl's approval rating is now officially the
50% mark. But his net approval has
increased 2%. There are, however, a large
number of undecided voters who can tip the
election in Pederson's favor (18%).
k. Sen. BURNS (R-MT)
Burns's approval rating is also officially
below the 50% mark. And his net approval
has decreased 2%. Perhaps this is a result
of the commercial produced by the Montana
Democratic Party. With only a 6%
difference between those who approve and
those who disapprove of Conrad Burns, he is
a vulnerable candidate.
l. Sen. NELSON (D-FL)
Although Sen. Nelson is still below the 50%
mark, there is an 18% difference between
those who approve and those who disapprove
of his job as Senator. His approval
ranking also increased from 89th to 80th.
Although he is still somewhat vulnerable,
he is not as vulnerable as Burns.
m. Sen. CANTWELL (D-WA)
Senator Cantwell's approval rating has once
again fell below the crucial 50% mark. And
there is only a 10% difference between
those who approve and those who disapprove
of her job as Senator. See my previous
comments and my diary entitled "Sen. Maria
Cantwell (D-WA)." She frankly needs our
support, especially as SHE HAS LOST 15% OF
HER BASE.
n. Sen. STABENOW (D-MI)
Senator Stabenow's approval ratings have
remained relatively stable, although her
net approval rating has decreased by 4%.
Yes, she is somewhat vulnerable, but I
believe she is in a better position than
Cantwell.
o. Sen. DeWINE (R-OH)
DeWine should not be reelected. He is one
of only four Senators whose diapproval
rate is higher than their approval rating.
It seems as if the scandal surrounding the
Ohio GOP has effected both him and
Voinovich, and his participation in the
Gang of Fourteen certainly did not help.
A candidate in Ohio must emerge now and
capitalize on the general discontent
Ohioans have with their elected officials.
p. Sen. TALENT (R-MO)
Although Talent's rank did increase by
three points (from 88th to 85th), he is
still below the crucial 50% mark. And
there is only an eleven per cent difference
between those who support and those who
do not support him. McCaskill needs to
enter this race soon, for Talent can be
ousted.
q. Sen. SANTORUM (R-PA)
Santorum has the lowest net approval, and
he is ranked 99th in overall approval.
Similar to DeWine, he is one of four
Senators whose net approval is negative.
Santorum will not be reelected, as his
ratings have been worsening the past four
months.
Any comments?
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