Analysis of Survey USA's 18 AUG 2005 Senator Approval Poll

Below I provide some remarks on certain patterns I notice in the 18 AUG 2005 Senator Approval Poll issued by Survey USA.  Some of the phenomena on which I comment may be nugatory, but there are certain patterns I deem significant and worthy of our attention.

Here are some of my findings:

1. Senators whose overall ranking has shifted over 20 points from the June Highest Approval Rating sort to the one issued on 18 AUG:

  a. Sen. ENZI (R-WY)  +25 (49th to 24th)
     62 (56) / 23 (30) / 39 (26)  (A/D/N)
     Perhaps Senator Enzi procured funds for the
     state of Wyoming in the recent Energy Bill.
     Perhaps others can provide an explanation
     as to why his net approval increased from
     26 to 39% over the past two months.

  b. Sen. GRAHAM (R-SC) +22 (62nd to 40th)
     57 (53) / 30 (34) / 27 (19)
     Perhaps South Carolinians have finally
     forgiven Senator Graham for serving as a
     member for the notorious Gang of Fourteen.  
     Senator Warner's rank also increased
     dramatically.  Interestingly, the ranks of
     Democratic Senators who participated in the
     Gang of Fourteen did not shift so radically.

  c. Sen. WARNER (R-VA) +20 (60th to 40th)
     57 (53) / 30 (32) / 27 (21)
     This shift in rank most probably can be
     explaind by this Senator's participation in
     the Gang of Fourteen.

  d. Sen. HUTCHISON (R-TX) -20 (19th to 39th)
     57 (64) / 29 (26) / 28 (38)
     It seems Kay Bailey Hutchison has had a
     net loss of her base.  If this continues,  
     we may have a competitive Senate race for
     her seat in 2006.  We may wish to explore
     why this has occurred.  We may also want to
     determine if and how much the presence of
     Cindy Sheehan in Crawford, Texas, will sway
     public opinion.

  e. Sen. AKAKA (D-HI) -22 (24th to 46th)
     56 (62) / 32 (24) / 24 (38)
     Why has Senator Akaka's net approval
     dropped fourteen points in the last two
     months?  This is worth exploring, as he is
     defending his seat in 2006.

  f. Sen. BOND (R-MO) +20 (69th to 49th)
     55 (52) / 32 (35) / 23 (17)
     It seems Senator Bond's ability to procure
     funds for highways outside of Kansas City
     has helped him improve his reputation.  Too
     bad his maneuvering did not provide Sen.
     Talent with any noticeable leverage.

  g. Sen. FEINGOLD (D-WI) -32 (26th to 58th)
     54 (62) / 38 (33) / 16 (29)
     Perhaps Presidential aspirations hurt one's
     ratings.  Or perhaps Feingold is parlaying
     his popularity with his recent demands for
     withdrawl.  We should watch him and his
     rankings more closely, as this is indeed a
     very dramatic shift.

  h. Sen. ENSIGN (R-NV) +24 (83rd to 59th)
     53 (49) / 31 (34) / 22 (15)
     Can anyone explain why Ensign's popularity
     with Nevadans is suddenly increasing?  I am
     not aware of any interesting or innovative
     legislation proposed by this Senator, and he
     is not yet campaigning for his Senate seat.
     I ask this as we will have to find an
     opponent to be funded by the netrooks given
     Reid's pragmatic decision to not try to
     depose his ostensible "friend."  

  i. Sen. LINCOLN (D-AR) -20 (44th to 64th)
     52 (58) / 34 (33) / 18 (25)
     Sen. Lincoln is losing traction in
     Arkansas.  Can anyone explain why this
     might be the case?

  j. Sen. SPECTER (R-PA) -20 (57th to 77th)
     49 (54) / 40 (36) / 9 (18)
     Is the net loss of 9% a result of his
     recent statements on Roberts?  

  k. Sen. CANTWELL (D-WA) -36 (52nd to 88th)
     47 (55) / 37 (30) / 10 (25)
     Senator Cantwell took the biggest dive out
     of all Senators.  Her net approval plunged
     15%, and she has lost 8% of her
     supporters, who have seemingly decided
     they are no longer impressed with her
     performance.  This is a real cause for
     concern, and I provide more insight below
     and in a diary I posted entitled "Sen.
     Maria Cantwell (D-WA)."

  l. Sen. CORZINE (D-NJ) -22 (70th to 92nd)
     46 (52) / 40 (36) / 6 (16)
     Perhaps this is a result of his
     run for Governor.  It may also be a
     result of the GOP's attempt to transform
     loan made to a former girlfriend into a
     media spectacle.

2006 INCUMBENTS

   a. Sen. SNOWE (R-ME)
      With the highest approval rating of all
      Senators, Snowe will most probably keep
      her seat.  This should not, however,
      deter us from fielding an opponent.  Her
      net approval has increased a whole 8%.

   b. Sen. BYRD (D-WV)
      I guess the commercial launched by the
      GOP had the paradoxical effect of earning
      Byrd more support.  His net approval has
      increased five points, and his ranking
      increased from 23rd to 15th.  Byrd seems
      inviolable.

   c. Sen. NELSON (D-NE)
      Senator Nelson's numbers have remained
      relatively stable.  I imagine he will win
      his race.

   d. Sen. HUTCHISON (R-TX)
      Note my comments above.  What we need to
      do is locate the reasons why her net
      approval ratings dived a whole 10%.  If
      we can somehow exploit these causes and
      raise public awareness, we may be able
      to provide Radnofsky or whoever else
      emerges from the Democratic primary to
      give Hutchison a Senate race she will
      never forget.  Only 57% of Texans approve
      of her job as Senator, and Cornyn's numbers
      are worse (43/36).

   e. Sen. AKAKA (D-HI)
      Only 56% of Hawaiins approve of Senator
      Akaka.  Why is this the case?  And how can
      we help increase his popularity before a
      Republican opponent surfaces?  We really
      cannot afford to spend too much money
      defending this race.

   f. Sen. CHAFEE (R-RI)
      55% of Rhode Islanders approve of Chafee,
      while 37% disapprove.  Perhaps his recent
      tour of Rhode Island has helped him improve
      his reputation with his constituents.  He
      will still have a competitive race,
      however, and I imagine the nomination of
      Roberts will have an effect on his ratings.

   g. Sen. ENSIGN (R-NV)
      53/31 is the approval/disapproval ratio for
      Ensign.  Yes, his approval ratings have
      skyrocketed in the past to months with a
      net increase of 7%, but I imagine a strong
      opponent can quickly reverse this trend.  
      See my comments above.

   h. Sen. ALLEN (R-VA)
      Senator Allen's approval ratings have
      remained relatively stable, although his
      net approval has decreased 2%.  With an
      approval/disapproval ratio of 52/33 he is
      a potentially vulnerable candidate.  When
      will Gov. Warner finally announce?

   i. Sen. FRIST (R-TN) open seat
      Although Frist's ratings are relatively
      stable, his net approval has decreased
      4%.  This does not bode well for the GOP
      in 2006.  Whether this is a result of his
      position as Majority Leader, or whether it
      is a reaction to his Presidential
      ambitions, this decrease in support will
      not provide the Republican candidate with
      any coattails on which to ride.  Indeed,
      his approval/disapproval ratio is 49/41.

   j. Sen. KYL (R-AZ)
      Kyl's approval rating is now officially the
      50% mark.  But his net approval has
      increased 2%.  There are, however, a large
      number of undecided voters who can tip the
      election in Pederson's favor (18%).

   k. Sen. BURNS (R-MT)
      Burns's approval rating is also officially
      below the 50% mark.  And his net approval
      has decreased 2%.  Perhaps this is a result
      of the commercial produced by the Montana
      Democratic Party.  With only a 6%
      difference between those who approve and
      those who disapprove of Conrad Burns, he is
      a vulnerable candidate.

   l. Sen. NELSON (D-FL)
      Although Sen. Nelson is still below the 50%
      mark, there is an 18% difference between
      those who approve and those who disapprove
      of his job as Senator.  His approval
      ranking also increased from 89th to 80th.  
      Although he is still somewhat vulnerable,
      he is not as vulnerable as Burns.

   m. Sen. CANTWELL (D-WA)
      Senator Cantwell's approval rating has once
      again fell below the crucial 50% mark.  And
      there is only a 10% difference between
      those who approve and those who disapprove
      of her job as Senator.  See my previous
      comments and my diary entitled "Sen. Maria
      Cantwell (D-WA)."  She frankly needs our
      support, especially as SHE HAS LOST 15% OF
      HER BASE.

   n. Sen. STABENOW (D-MI)
      Senator Stabenow's approval ratings have
      remained relatively stable, although her
      net approval rating has decreased by 4%.
      Yes, she is somewhat vulnerable, but I
      believe she is in a better position than
      Cantwell.  

   o. Sen. DeWINE (R-OH)
      DeWine should not be reelected.  He is one
      of only four Senators whose diapproval
      rate is higher than their approval rating.
      It seems as if the scandal surrounding the
      Ohio GOP has effected both him and
      Voinovich, and his participation in the
      Gang of Fourteen certainly did not help.
      A candidate in Ohio must emerge now and
      capitalize on the general discontent
      Ohioans have with their elected officials.

   p. Sen. TALENT (R-MO)
      Although Talent's rank did increase by
      three points (from 88th to 85th), he is
      still below the crucial 50% mark.  And
      there is only an eleven per cent difference
      between those who support and those who
      do not support him.  McCaskill needs to
      enter this race soon, for Talent can be
      ousted.

   q. Sen. SANTORUM (R-PA)
      Santorum has the lowest net approval, and
      he is ranked 99th in overall approval.  
      Similar to DeWine, he is one of four
      Senators whose net approval is negative.  
      Santorum will not be reelected, as his
      ratings have been worsening the past four
      months.

Any comments?

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Comments

7 Comments

Statstical noise
I think a lot of these "dramatic" changes are nothing more than statstical noise. Look at the high MOE in lots of these state races. Even without the high MOE, tiny changes at the margins of support make the "ranking" go up or down by 20-30 spots. This is a bit of a mountain out of a molehill, if you ask me.
by elrod 2005-08-19 05:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Statstical noise
Actually, it's a very helpful comment, and one that should be taken as criticism of the reliability of these polls, not of the good analysis you did putting the diary together. When you have sample sizes only in the 100s, you're going to have big margins of error and get widely disparate results, like the fact that Cantwell is running at 47% and 57% approval in two concurrent polls. It's not a good idea to start madly divvying up money and manpower yet based on such sketchy information; I think that's all he was saying.
by Crazy Vaclav 2005-08-19 02:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Statstical noise
Questioning the reliability of a poll, particularly when you have two polls that don't jibe at all, is a good example of thoughtful consideration. The more you repeat a particular test, the more likely that at some point you're going to get a falsely significant result. Seeing as how a 47 means "danger" and a 57 means "all clear," it's pretty clear that one of these polls is an outlier (and I'm suspecting it's the SUSA poll, since she was at 55 in the June SUSA poll). Since we're in agreement that we need to be judicious about our limited resources, let's find out which poll is right by watching poll trendlines for the next few months, before either panicking or wiping our brows.

(Btw, Cantwell is my senator, so I'm certainly interested in keeping her in office.) (I would also include a smiling emoticon, but emoticons kind of rub me the wrong way.)

by Crazy Vaclav 2005-08-19 03:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Statstical noise
Metonym, please take a minute to familiarize yourself with the site's FAQ, particularly in regards to the rating system.

A "1" rating is for trolls only. A "troll" is an outsider who pops up to spew right-wing talking points, and the "1" is used to flag those comments so that the moderator can eliminate that person's account. It is highly advisable to look at a person's posting history before calling them out as a troll. A "troll" is not, by contrast, a trusted user with whom you have a disagreement on a particular topic.

Although no one really knows what a "2" rating means, it is not customarily used to express mere disagreement, either. I think the rule of thumb is a "2" is for something that you disagree with that is also belligerent, incoherent, or otherwise unproductive.

One of the nice things about myDD is that it is a self-policing community, but the community doesn't work if people abuse the tools we use to police ourselves. I can chalk your behavior up to inexperience, but if I see you giving "1"s to trusted users again -- even Parker -- I won't hesitate to call it to Chris's attention.

by Crazy Vaclav 2005-08-20 10:26PM | 0 recs
Cantwell, Akaka
Cantwell might have been in for some rough sailing if she were facing Dino Rossi (who'd pick up a lot of sympathy and/or vengeance votes), but she's facing Mike McGavick, a wealthy businessman who has never held office and has basically zero name recognition. A Rasmussen poll executed last week had her beating two other potential opponents, Chris Vance and Rick White (both of whom have higher name recognition), by 57/32 and 56/33 margins. (The timing is odd, since by last week we knew her opponent would be McGavick and not these other guys...) So I'd say this race deserves some attention and money, of course, but it's likely to go our way.

(As for her drop, maybe she lost a couple points from the left over her pro-CAFTA vote, but I think we're mostly seeing statistical noise... nothing else has happened recently that would change anyone's opinion of her.)

And as for Akaka, I'm wondering if he's being hurt by his pro-ANWR drilling vote. He did a quid pro quo with Ted Stevens, where he'd vote for ANWR drilling in exchange for Stevens' support on giving native Hawaiians the same status as native Americans. However, I suspect Hawaii has more environmental activists than native Hawaiian activists.

by Crazy Vaclav 2005-08-19 07:47AM | 0 recs
P.S.
The same Aug. 14 Rasmussen poll I cited above also has Cantwell's generic approve/disapprove at 57/36. So she looks pretty good according to Rasmussen.
by Crazy Vaclav 2005-08-19 07:50AM | 0 recs
by Gary Boatwright 2005-08-19 10:02AM | 0 recs

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