If Howard Dean were black he would have won the Primary. He had the same constituents as Obama with the exception being black voters.

Obama ran a superb campaign but Hillary lost it because of a configuration of demographics that favored Obama (Deanies + AA). Very timely for Obama and unfortunate for Hillary.

Zogby is hedging again, waiting for SUSA's numbers to help manipulate his numbers. When he sees all the polls on Monday he will re-adjust his for his final numbers on Monday night.

Why don't you wait till 100% of the precincts have reported. It moved from 8.6% to 9.2% and could still move up past 10.0 %. Nevertheless, it's still a 55% to 45% win for Hillary.

Note that ARG was one of the few pollsters to agree with SUSA in CA and OH. Yet last week they had it tied in PA - now up 20? I'll settle for SUSA's.

Rasmussen's polling in states have been mixed and below average.

Example: California, Ohio, Missouri and Nevada.

He's a GOP-leaning pollster and seems to screen his polling sufficient to yield advantage to GOP.

SUSA has Hillary up 53 to 41.

I thought after the nationally televised  endorsement of Obama by Ted Kennedy that Hillary was toast. I was wrong. Now I know the electorate generally makes up its own mind and that it's the endorsement of Governors more so than Senators that matter. Governors inherently have the infrastructural ground network necessary to boost a campaign and get voters out.

Hillary won MA by double digits in spite of Ted Kennedy.

The Wright issues now makes me to think that Obama's opposition to the war was more informed by the inclination of his church than by his 'better judgement'. It happens that the church's position was right but the fact that every member of the church may have been against the war - for cultural affinity reasons - makes me not to accrue over-riding benefit to him. He just happens to have landed on a the right side of a flip of a coin.

I guess you have not seen the latest polls for FL and OH from PPP (posted at Political Wire)? DEMs don't have a chance in FL against McCain if FL delegates are not seated or no revotes. In OH Hillary barely leads McCain but trumps Obama.

It is now apparent that Obama's stance against the war was not out of clairvoyance but out of disdain for America for its policies in the MiddleEast. It is based on the rationale unveiled by his pastor and cheered by his congregation. It was not 'for love of country' after all.

This is March 08 not labor day September 08. Obama is getting his best press and not doing any better than Hillary in the match-up. When Republicans are done with Obama, his vote total will be around 47-48%, no better than Kerry.

My point, though, is that this far from election day, the Obama meme is very appealing but there is no history (that I know of) in which a non-incumbent election leads to a landslide but this is what is being projected for Obama. I don't think so.

Given the problem we are having with sub prime culture, I see Obama as the sub prime candidate with promise of high returns and Hillary as the true and tested candidate with probability of winning but winning ugly 50.5% to 51%

There are more black democrats (55%) than white democrats (43%). Hillary is actually doing well in that if she got 100% white dems and Obama got 100% black dems Obama would still win 55 to 43. So a final outcome in the election of 60 to 40 means Hillary loses in the aggregate by only 8 points in the emotional attachment of blacks to Obama than whites are to Hillary.

Easy win for Obama by default - not from any effort on his part- he gets it whether he campaigns or not.

Changing welfare 'as you know it' was one of the best policy changes made by Clinton. He blunted the way most Americans now look at blacks and Obama has become a beneficiary today.

I'm black and even we in the black community despised the 'welfare class' that was developing in our community. Bill Clinton restored the 'dignity of labor' back to the black culture and blunted racial stereotyping of black unwed mothers as wellfare queens. Black churches 'preached' against welfare and Bill Clinton put action to their preaching.