Clinton's Big States Talking Point-Obama as McGovern

1970 Census Rankings

  1. California
  2. New York
  3. Pennsylvania
  4. Texas
  5. Illinois
  6. Ohio
  7. Michigan
  8. New Jersey

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stat es_Census,_1970

1972 Dem. State Primary Winners
*McGovern (3) California, New York, and Texas
Humphrey (2)Ohio and Pennsylvania
Chisholm (1) New Jersey
Muskie (1) Illinois
Wallace (1) Michigan

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:1972D emocraticPresidentialPrimaries.gif

1976 Dem State Primary Winners
*Carter (6)Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas
Brown (1) California
"Scoop" Jackson (1) New York

1976 Rep State Primary Winners
*Ford (6) Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania
Reagan (2) California and Texas

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stat es_presidential_election%2C_1976

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The Wright Effect-Why Hillary Is Doing Better Now

On Feb. 12, 2008, Barrack Obama beat Hillary Clinton in the state of Virginia with 64-35% of the vote. On May 6th, 2008 Obama beat Clinton in the neighboring southern state of North Carolina with 56-42% of the vote. African-Americans made up approx. 34% of the voter population in NC, in VA the % was approx. 29%.

In the 2004 election Bush beat Kerry 56-44% in North Carolina, in VA the results were Bush 54-46% over Kerry. In the 2000 election, NC went 56-43% for Bush over Gore, and VA went 52-48 for Bush over Gore (Edwards didn't seem to help much in these two states). In 1996, NC Dole won by 48.7-44%, in VA Dole won by 47.1 to 45.1% over Clinton in both states. African-American population of NC 21.4%, VA 19.4%. Obviously, these states are not exact matches, but they are very close.

On February 19th, 2008, Obama won Washington 68-31%. On May 20th, 2008, again in a neighboring southern state of Oregon Obama won by 59-41%. A-A percentage of voters approx. 3% in Oregon, no exit data available for Washington.

African-American population of Washington 3.1%, Oregon 1.6%.

In 1996, Clinton won 49.8-37.3% in Washington, and in Oregon 47.2-39.1%.
In 2000, Gore won 50-45% in Washington, and 47.1-46.9% in Oregon.
In 2004, Kerry won 53-46% in Washington, and 52-48% in Oregon.

Again like North Carolina and Virginia not exact matches but extremely similar.

2004 election results http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/ ... president/
2000 election results http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0876793.html
1996 election results http://www.presidentelect.org/e1996.html#map
African American state census data http://www.censusscope.org/us/map_nhblack.html
2008 exit poll data http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primar ... /state/#WA

I would love to compare the results of the 2008 primary results with the 2004 results, but unfortunately by the time of the Oregon and North Carolina primaries in 2004 Kerry had no real opposition racking up wins in 78%+ range in both states over Dennis Kucinich when Dean in WA and Edwards in VA were Kerry's top challengers. So, that comparison cannot be made.

The problem with the Democratic primary and caucus delegate allocation is that is very sporadic and arbitrary. If the election had been held last week in all the states and Obama received the vote totals he has, then he should be the nominee, with not much room for debate. However, the fact is the Obama of now is not the Obama of February and March. If the primaries had been held in those states that had their primaries and caucuses prior to the Wright imbroglio, I think Clinton would have a delegate lead much greater than Obama has and her popular vote total would be about 53-45% over Obama not including Florida or Michigan.

Obama should have won in Indiana, he didn't. He should have gotten at least 60% of the vote in NC and Oregon, again he didn't. He should not have been beaten by over 35% pts. in W. VA and Kentucky, yet he was.

The battleground states Clinton is doing better than Obama vs. McCain:

Ohio by 7 pts.
PA by 6 pts.
FL by 12 pts.
Missouri by 4.5 pts.
New Mexico by 1.5 pts.
Nevada by 11 pts.
Michigan by 1 pt. (how are either of these two not beating McCain in this state?)
New Hampshire by 5 pts.
North Carolina by 4 pts.
Georgia by 3 pts.

Wisconsin even (both lose to McCain)

The battleground states Obama is doing better than Clinton vs. McCain

Iowa by 5 pts.
Minnesota by 4 pts.
Colorado by 9 pts.
VA by 7 pts.
Oregon by 8 pts.
Washington by 6 pts.
California by 1 pt.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... /ohio.html

I only used poll results from after the Wright flare-up.

Clinton's arguement at this point consists of:

1.  She has won more votes cast than Obama, see results of next Tuesday to see what metric this encompasses.

2.  She has won 7 of the 8 most populous states and the top four (counting Florida and Michigan).

3.  She has won more of the swing states that the Democrats must win to be win the electoral college.  AR, WV, KY, PA, OH, MI, Fl, NH, NV, and NM.  Obama has won IA, VA, NC, CO, WA, WI, and OR.  

4.  She is leading McCain or doing better in more of these state than Obama in current polls(see above list).

5.  The Obama of today is not the Obama of February and March.  The Wright stories have peeled off about 7-10% of his support from mid-April.  

This campaign has been unlike any other in the past 40 years for the Democratic nomination, and yet people pretend like it is just like Kerry wracking up 40 pt wins to close out the nomination.  It seems like the vast majority on the liberal internet think it is a slam dunk for supers to get behind Obama, I just think is extremely unrealistic given the results of the past month.

Flame away at your leisure.

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