If anyone heard Brian Schweitzer's and Hillary Clinton's speeches back to back last night and is still unsure about how they will vote (or planning on voting for McCain), I don't know how you can call yourself a Democrat. The Obama campaign needs to pick up on some of that rhetoric and start contrasting his tax and energy plans with McCains'.
Sen. Clinton trails by over 706,000 popular votes, or by just under 412,000 popular votes if you want to include Florida.
Kentucky and Oregon will probably see turnouts of about 500,000-600,000 voters each. Charitably, if Sen. Obama wins Oregon 55-45 and Sen. Clinton wins KY 65-35, Sen. Clinton gains 200,000 votes.
Puerto Rico will probably see a turnout of 600,000 as well. Even if Clinton wins 70-30, she's only gaining 240,000 votes, not the 500,000 you're talking about.
Even if you split the Montana and South Dakota primaries Obama is likely to win, Clinton is still far short in overtaking Obama's lead without Florida, and even if you include that primary and give her the big leads I assigned, it still looks pretty dicey.
that it's probably the worst idea proposed by a Democrat in the entire campaign?
That most of the savings will be eaten up by the refiners?
That it's taking away from the kind of infrastructure improvements that could provide much needed jobs in WV?
That it does nothing to encourage the widespread and sweeping lifestyle changes necessary to making life on our planet sustainable in the long run?
Jerome, you're turning into a terrible, terrible joke. Hey, the Iraq war was polling well in 2002? Does that make Hillary Clinton's vote for it a good decision? Also, deporting all the brown people who are "taking 'our' jobs" seems to have a lot of support these days. When do we get to hear Clinton's plan to do that?
This is a truly terrible post, Jerome. I was hoping you would be above trying to defend Clinton's actions on this one, but I'm not at all surprised to see you trying. Not even Krugman is with her on this one, for Christ's sake.
Just about everyone who has taken anything beyond an introductory university course in macroeconomics has written an article saying what a horrendous idea a gas tax holiday truly is. The reasons are plentiful, and include:
(1) The gas tax holiday will not save the average gas consumer more than $28 over the entire period of its proposed duration
(2) The temporary decrease in price will cause a corresponding increase in demand, which will ultimately result in even higher prices for the good once the holiday is over
(3) Burning fossil fuels isn't good for the environment, remember? It's not something we want to be encouraging.
(4) Remember that national deficit? Perhaps we should be levying new taxes on oil companies, but that's beside the point. Clinton's idea is still really stupid. While McCain would have us borrow more money from China to put in the hands of the OPEC nations, Clinton would just hold off on paying down that debt to China (and thus end up borrowing more) to put the same amount of money in their hands
So yeah, Jerome, Clinton's proposal is bad for gas prices, bad for the economy, bad for the environment, bad for the consumer, bad for the budget, and good for... OPEC? China?... and Clinton, if people really are as dumb as you and her campaign seem to think they are. She's getting a lot of pushback over this one. I would hope the truth wins out.
And I have faith it will... I was an intern for the Obama campaign in Iowa last summer, and you wouldn't believe the number of people who told me directly what a boondoggle they thought the ethanol industry really is. People aren't as stupid as you seem to think. They can grasp semi-complicated concepts if the media chooses to present them with the actual relevant information.
This just isn't the kind of thing that is going to improve her numbers in the remaining states by 20+% and move 75% of the remaining superdelegates in her direction.
I do like Emanuel as a character and think he's effective at what he does. I'm not trying to be disagreeable in any way--yours are the kind of comments this site needs to get back on track
If Obama does win, we should be looking to replace him with someone at least equally if not much more progressive, as Illinois is not going to send a Republican to the Senate under any imaginable circumstances.
My vote would be Jan Schakowsky, who is currently rated #7 in the House of Representatives by Progressive Punch and is probably well-connected enough to raise enough money in her first "re"-election effort to not become a drain on the limited amount of DSCC resources needed in other, more competitive states. She has a pretty good history as well, as she got her start in politics by advocating with other mothers for (something like) expiration dates on perishable food items.
Another interesting pick would be Jesse Jackson, Jr., who is rated #5 on Progressive Punch and showed at least initial interest in moving up to Mayor of Chicago last year.
Emanuel is rated in the 90s, and while that makes him one of our better Reps, his district is quite liberal and he could probably afford to be with us on more votes than he has been. Also, while there isn't that much difference between him and Jackson and Schakowsky in terms of the overall percentage, he is over 10 points back in the "chips are down" category.
"OBAMA IS FINISHED. DONE!"
"TWENTY YEARS TOO LATE."
"YOU LET THIS MAN OFFICIATE AT YOUR WEDDING AND BAPTIZE YOUR CHILDREN?"
----
I just hope a couple people take the time to read the speech. Whether you support Obama or not, it truly is honest, intelligent, and thought-provoking.
I'm an Obama supporter, but I admire your resolve and hard work even with the polling in MD looking so bad for her. It sounds like you really enjoyed your experience, so don't let this be the last time you work for a good Democratic candidate, no matter what office they're running for. One of the good things about this Presidential primary is that it is identifying, activating, and training thousands of new supporters for the party. All of those people you called today will have their info entered into the party's database to be used in upcoming election cycles.
I really enjoyed reading your diary. Keep up the good work!
jeromearmstrong Our Polarized and Money-Driven Congress: Created Over 25 Years By Republicans (and Quickly Imitated by Democrats http://bit.ly/ewXlXI #bblue
If anyone heard Brian Schweitzer's and Hillary Clinton's speeches back to back last night and is still unsure about how they will vote (or planning on voting for McCain), I don't know how you can call yourself a Democrat. The Obama campaign needs to pick up on some of that rhetoric and start contrasting his tax and energy plans with McCains'.
I hope she somehow pressures him into agreeing to let her push her health care plan in the 111th Congress.
I have a feeling its more about making back a little of that campaign debt, however.
Would it not be the outgoing House of Representatives that would break a 269-269 EV tie rather than the incoming one?
Sen. Clinton trails by over 706,000 popular votes, or by just under 412,000 popular votes if you want to include Florida.
Kentucky and Oregon will probably see turnouts of about 500,000-600,000 voters each. Charitably, if Sen. Obama wins Oregon 55-45 and Sen. Clinton wins KY 65-35, Sen. Clinton gains 200,000 votes.
Puerto Rico will probably see a turnout of 600,000 as well. Even if Clinton wins 70-30, she's only gaining 240,000 votes, not the 500,000 you're talking about.
Even if you split the Montana and South Dakota primaries Obama is likely to win, Clinton is still far short in overtaking Obama's lead without Florida, and even if you include that primary and give her the big leads I assigned, it still looks pretty dicey.
For more info, check out this New York Observer article.
that it's probably the worst idea proposed by a Democrat in the entire campaign?
That most of the savings will be eaten up by the refiners?
That it's taking away from the kind of infrastructure improvements that could provide much needed jobs in WV?
That it does nothing to encourage the widespread and sweeping lifestyle changes necessary to making life on our planet sustainable in the long run?
Jerome, you're turning into a terrible, terrible joke. Hey, the Iraq war was polling well in 2002? Does that make Hillary Clinton's vote for it a good decision? Also, deporting all the brown people who are "taking 'our' jobs" seems to have a lot of support these days. When do we get to hear Clinton's plan to do that?
This is a truly terrible post, Jerome. I was hoping you would be above trying to defend Clinton's actions on this one, but I'm not at all surprised to see you trying. Not even Krugman is with her on this one, for Christ's sake.
Just about everyone who has taken anything beyond an introductory university course in macroeconomics has written an article saying what a horrendous idea a gas tax holiday truly is. The reasons are plentiful, and include:
(1) The gas tax holiday will not save the average gas consumer more than $28 over the entire period of its proposed duration
(2) The temporary decrease in price will cause a corresponding increase in demand, which will ultimately result in even higher prices for the good once the holiday is over
(3) Burning fossil fuels isn't good for the environment, remember? It's not something we want to be encouraging.
(4) Remember that national deficit? Perhaps we should be levying new taxes on oil companies, but that's beside the point. Clinton's idea is still really stupid. While McCain would have us borrow more money from China to put in the hands of the OPEC nations, Clinton would just hold off on paying down that debt to China (and thus end up borrowing more) to put the same amount of money in their hands
So yeah, Jerome, Clinton's proposal is bad for gas prices, bad for the economy, bad for the environment, bad for the consumer, bad for the budget, and good for... OPEC? China?... and Clinton, if people really are as dumb as you and her campaign seem to think they are. She's getting a lot of pushback over this one. I would hope the truth wins out.
And I have faith it will... I was an intern for the Obama campaign in Iowa last summer, and you wouldn't believe the number of people who told me directly what a boondoggle they thought the ethanol industry really is. People aren't as stupid as you seem to think. They can grasp semi-complicated concepts if the media chooses to present them with the actual relevant information.
an issue-based diary on MyDD? It sure has been a while...
This just isn't the kind of thing that is going to improve her numbers in the remaining states by 20+% and move 75% of the remaining superdelegates in her direction.
Both candidates are solid Democrats. You probably shouldn't be on a Democratic blog if you're not planning on supporting the Party's candidate.
I do like Emanuel as a character and think he's effective at what he does. I'm not trying to be disagreeable in any way--yours are the kind of comments this site needs to get back on track
If Obama does win, we should be looking to replace him with someone at least equally if not much more progressive, as Illinois is not going to send a Republican to the Senate under any imaginable circumstances.
My vote would be Jan Schakowsky, who is currently rated #7 in the House of Representatives by Progressive Punch and is probably well-connected enough to raise enough money in her first "re"-election effort to not become a drain on the limited amount of DSCC resources needed in other, more competitive states. She has a pretty good history as well, as she got her start in politics by advocating with other mothers for (something like) expiration dates on perishable food items.
Another interesting pick would be Jesse Jackson, Jr., who is rated #5 on Progressive Punch and showed at least initial interest in moving up to Mayor of Chicago last year.
Emanuel is rated in the 90s, and while that makes him one of our better Reps, his district is quite liberal and he could probably afford to be with us on more votes than he has been. Also, while there isn't that much difference between him and Jackson and Schakowsky in terms of the overall percentage, he is over 10 points back in the "chips are down" category.
staaart.... yourrr.... pre-fabricated stock comments!
3...
2...
1...
"OBAMA IS FINISHED. DONE!"
"TWENTY YEARS TOO LATE."
"YOU LET THIS MAN OFFICIATE AT YOUR WEDDING AND BAPTIZE YOUR CHILDREN?"
----
I just hope a couple people take the time to read the speech. Whether you support Obama or not, it truly is honest, intelligent, and thought-provoking.
I'm pretty sure that video was made in jest, as a way of making fun of the Clintons for the overreach... did anyone else watch it?
Voting was held Feb. 5th-12th, results announced Feb. 21st
I'm an Obama supporter, but I admire your resolve and hard work even with the polling in MD looking so bad for her. It sounds like you really enjoyed your experience, so don't let this be the last time you work for a good Democratic candidate, no matter what office they're running for. One of the good things about this Presidential primary is that it is identifying, activating, and training thousands of new supporters for the party. All of those people you called today will have their info entered into the party's database to be used in upcoming election cycles.
I really enjoyed reading your diary. Keep up the good work!