Poll: Flap over pastor hurts Obama

Barack Obama's national standing has been significantly damaged by the controversy over his former pastor, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, raising questions for some voters about the Illinois senator's values, credibility and electability.

The erosion of support among Democrats and independents raises the stakes in Tuesday's Indiana and North Carolina primaries, which represent a chance for Obama to reassert his claim to a Democratic nomination that seems nearly in his grasp. A defeat in Indiana and a close finish in North Carolina, where he's favored, could fuel unease about his ability to win in November. Such results also could help propel Hillary Rodham Clinton's uphill campaign all the way to the Democratic convention in August.

In the USA TODAY survey, taken Thursday through Saturday, Clinton leads Obama among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents by 7 percentage points, the first time in three months she has been ahead. Two weeks ago, before the controversy over comments by Jeremiah Wright reignited, Obama led by 10 points.

In February, Democrats and Democratic leaners by 33 points said Obama had a better shot at beating Republican John McCain in November. Clinton is now seen as the stronger candidate by 5 points.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/el ection2008/2008-05-04-obama_N.htm

By the way a NY Times / CBS poll paints an entirely different picture .

A majority of American voters say that the furor over the relationship between Senator Barack Obama and his former pastor has not affected their opinion of Mr. Obama, but a substantial number say that it could influence voters this fall should he be the Democratic presidential nominee, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/05/us/pol itics/05poll.html?_r=1&hp&oref=s login

Who is right ?

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Insider Advantage Poll : Clinton Rebounding in PA

-- A new InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton regaining some ground she'd previously lost to Sen. Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary race.

Here are the results of our new poll:

Clinton 48%

Obama 38%

Undecided 13%*

The survey was conducted April 8 among 681 likely registered voters in the April 22 Pennsylvania Democratic primary. The data have been weighted for age, race and gender with a margin of error of +/-3.6%.

*Results when rounded off may not add up to 100%.

InsiderAdvantage's Matt Towery: "Sen. Clinton has made progress among both men and among all white voters. Her support among women also appears to be consolidating.

"My guess is that whatever damage she might have sustained by recent gaffs and media missteps have been largely discounted by the public. The race in Pennsylvania is clearly still fluid. But, at least for now, it's tending back towards the result that was originally anticipated by most - a Clinton lead.

"Her big task now is to maintain a double-digit lead and expand on it; Obama's is to force her back into a single-digit race. Clinton needs a resounding victory in Pennsylvania to relieve the pressure on her to quit the presidential race," said Towery.  

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/d ownloads/uploaded/38_InsiderAdvantage_Ma jority%20Opinion%20PA%20DEM%20Poll%20_(4-9-2008).pdf

Maybe SurveyUsa was right after all . Two polls out today have picked up movement to Clinton like SurveyUsa did.

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Clinton challenges Obama to a " Bowl Off "

Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton walked somberly into a press conference Tuesday and stood before microphones. Reporters tensed, sensing something big might be afoot.

"This has been a very hard fought race," she said. "We clearly need to do something so that our party and our people can make the right decision. So, I have a proposal."

The tension grew. Reporters shifted in their seats. Was she dropping out of the race? Offering to join rival Barack Obama as his running mate?

April Fools!

"Today, I am challenging Senator Obama to a bowl-off," Clinton said, provoking relieved laughs from the assembled scribes.

Clinton carried on, making reference to Obama's disastrous outing at a Pennsylvania bowling alley Saturday.

"A bowling night. Right here in Pennsylvania. The winner take all," she went on. "I'll even spot him two frames."

"It is time for his campaign to get out of the gutter and allow all the pins to be counted. I'm prepared to play this game all the way to the tenth frame. When this game is over, the American people will know that when that phone rings at 3 a.m., they'll have a president ready to bowl on day one."

"Let's strike a deal and go bowling for delegates. We don't have a moment to spare, because it's already April Fool's Day. Happy April Fool's Day."

I would actually like to see that , I know Obama would have his butt handed to him .

Come on people who bowls a 37 in the lane on all 10 frames .

Even my kid sister who is 8 ran up the score to 70 on her first day .

Thats surely not what you want to do in Altoona , PA on a Saturday , lol.

However we shall give him a pass if he takes up Clinton's challenge .

If not for the sake of party unity , at least to reedeem himself.

Come on Barack you can't bowl a 37 on the lane on all 10 frames and walk away .

Anyone else care to share bowling experiences.

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New Survey USA Poll : Americans want Clinton on top of the ticket

Interesting information coming from survey usa . Since a lot of people have been speculating about a joint ticket , I personally have said it for a long time now both candidates are going to be on the ticket in November , I believe Clinton would be on top because of the strong possibility that she would end up with the lead in popular vote at the end of the process , if you add in Florida and Michigan which is most likely going to be a redo , the odds are almost certain she would win the popular vote.However survey usa has conducted a poll to figure out who Americans want on top of the ticket , needless to say Clinton wins.

What would be especially gratifying for the Clinton Team is that not only a solid majority of Americans want her on top but an even larger majority of democrats in the subsection of the poll want her on top of the ticket .

There is a lot of interesting information in there for those that have been dwelling on that scenario.

There is also a poll in there about the role of the super delegates and Americans tend to side with The Hillary Clinton position that they should follow their own free will , again among democrats in the subsection by a large margin too.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=ebf5f50f-4dfd-4bc4-b001-588c5e c796cc

There is also a poll on Florida with some good information , the most interesting is that 81% said they would vote for the same person , bodes well for Clinton , that might explain the recent rasmussen poll.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=39903d17-6aac-4ade-b0ca-ccffb0 82f25d

Its an interesting read.

If Obama wins the popular vote at the end of this process he should be the nominee in my view.

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3 am ad helping Clinton in Pennsylvania ?

In Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton has opened a fifteen percentage point lead over Barack Obama. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Clinton attracting 52% of the vote while Obama earns 37%.

In late February, before Clinton's comeback victories in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island, the former First Lady's lead in the Keystone State was just four percentage points. The big difference between that poll and the current result is found a among men. Clinton now leads by seventeen percentage points among women and eleven among men. In the previous survey, she was ahead by fifteen points among women but trails by fourteen among men.

....It is possible that when the primaries come to an end, Obama will have won the most pledged delegates while Clinton will have won the popular vote. That is especially true if she wins by a significant margin in Pennsylvania

......" It is possible that the Clinton commercial about a 3:00 a.m. phone call at the White House has helped in Pennsylvania (see the commercial). Most Likely Democratic Primary voters have either seen the ad or have heard about it. Forty-eight percent (48%) of Likely Democratic Primary voters say that if such a call came, they'd want Clinton in the White House to answer it. Thirty percent (30%) would rather see Obama while 15% of these Democratic voters would prefer the Republican nominee, John McCain, to answer the call. Among men, 23% prefer McCain."

Those who think that Mccain would not draw in democrats especially blue collar folks in big industrial states based on an appeal on national security and patriotism should be worried about the 15% of democrats who want him to answer the phone.

Pennsylvania would be a battle ground state with Obama or Clinton on the ticket . National security and foreign policy would be one of the most important issues in the general election.

Despite the fact that the democrats in their primaries largely refuse to talk about national security with Mccain at the top of the ticket there would be no escaping it in the general.

If Obama is the nominee he has to be confident enough to fight on the national security front and not complain that the 3 am ad is fearmongering.

Some of us want to hear more about national security and how Obama intends to fight terrorism , win the battles in afganistan and iraq.

Harking back to I spoke out against the war would not be enough.

Both Clinton and Obama should come up with a better answer to this question

- Is the surge working ?

That is the basis on which the iraq war debate would be fought in the fall with Mccain on the ticket.

The answer they both give falls right into the hands of Mccain.

Democrats have dropped the ball on Iraq due to the inability of party leaders in and outside congress to come out with a consistent position on iraq and giving in to the president on iraq by the democratic congress has really put the iraq war as a toss up in the general election.

Going into Pennslyvania , National security and the economy would be key issues because of these same blue collar voters , Reagan democrats and older voters.

Negative campaigning would not work a whole lot there

PA

Clinton 52

Obama   37

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylva nia_democratic_presidential_primary

P.S. - What happens if Obama is ahead in pledged delegates and Clinton is leading in popular votes at the end of the process.

Dean is urging a do over in FL , MI and it is possible she would come out of this process with a lead in popular votes.

" Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean urged Florida and Michigan party officials to come up with plans to repeat their presidential nominating contests so that their delegates can be counted."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080306/ap_o n_el_pr/primary_scramble

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Hillary Clinton blows past $3m under 24 hrs.

So much for the " Clinton are finished will quit the race "

We however have a new goal of $6m in 72 hrs.

Taylor has the information.

http://www.taylormarsh.com/

I'll take down this post in a couple of minutes because this is not my idea of a diary.

However I needed to inform you of the new goal.

So lets keep it up , break the bank if you have to.

I have rounded up a couple of my girlfriends for a fundraising night for tomorrow night.

so do your part .

https://contribute.hillaryclinton.com/fo rm.html?sc=2337

I realized and she did as well that we stopped giving because she stopped soliciting.

rememeber all the donors she got by being creative with bill and chelsea earlier on , so we small donors are out there we are just not a rabid bunch ( no offense ) like the supporters of obama.

So let me say this in closing if you really believe in her candidacy , don't wait till she asks .

send as much as you can every 2 weeks at least.

Enough from me , get to work . we must reach the goal .

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Survey Usa CA Poll update

FINAL CA DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY -- INCLUDES INTERVIEWS FROM MONDAY NIGHT 02/04/08

Clinton Appears to Blunt Late Obama Charge in California: 24 hours till votes are counted in the California Democratic Primary, Hillary Clinton appears to fend-off a late charge from Barack Obama, 52% Clinton, 42% Obama, according to SurveyUSA's 13th and final pre-primary tracking poll. Obama leads among men. Clinton leads among women. 44-point Gender Gap. Clinton leads among whites. Obama leads among blacks. 53-point Race Gap. Among younger voters, Clinton leads by 3. Among older voters, Clinton leads by 18. In greater San Francisco, the contest is tied. In the Central Valley, Clinton leads by 7. In greater Los Angeles, Clinton leads by 15. In the Inland Empire, Clinton leads by 16.

Filtering: 2,000 state of CA adults were interviewed 02/03/08 and 02/04/08. Of them, 1,762 were registered to vote. Of them, 872 had already voted or were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote at the precinct on 02/05/08. Research conducted for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego and KFSN-TV Fresno. Other polls in CA show Clinton with a smaller lead than SurveyUSA shows here. Two polls at this hour show Obama ahead in CA. For Obama to win in CA, he needs a larger turnout among males and African Americans than SurveyUSA's results indicate he will get.

Clinton 52

Obama   42

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=820141bb-aa0f-4e2d-b13b-44384b 69f1f4

One of these pollsters would go out of business today lol.

Like that would ever happen.

However look at the dramatic difference in the two polls.

Zogby says obama is leading among women in california and survey usa sees almost a 35 point gap , well we will see today.

I'll put my money on survey usa. I find it hard to believe that clinton is at 36 in california but stranger things have happened.

Today is the big day.

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Hillary Clinton eyes victory in the west

The Western United States .  The fastest growing region in the country.  The largest number of new immigrants.  Home to Las Vegas, Silicon Valley, Napa Valley, Hollywood and our largest national parks, the source of most of America's fruit, beef and wine and much of our oil, land of dot-coms, ranches and retirement communities - rapidly becoming the most diverse part of America.

Hillary Country.

Hillary has generated excitement in Arizona , Colorado , Nevada , Washington , California and across the West, where she's given thousands of supporters the chance to see her up close. And the endorsements keep rolling in: former Washington Governor Gary Locke, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, California Assembly Speaker Fabian Nuñez, Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, California Senator Dianne Feinstein, Oakland Mayor Ron Dellums, former Denver Mayor Wellington Webb, California Controller John Chiang, as well as Arizonan Raul Yzaguirre, former president of the National Council of La Raza, the leading Hispanic advocacy organization in the country.

Nowhere is Hillary's Western strength more evident than in Nevada , where a recent poll shows her breaking 50% in the primary and leading by 37 points.

And her support among local leaders only continues to grow, including: Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid, former Governor Bob Miller, Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, former Las Vegas Mayor Jan Jones, State Treasurer Kate Marshall, Assembly Majority Leader John Oceguera, Dr. Robert Fowler, Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani, former Attorney General Frankie Sue Del Papa, Las Vegas Latin Chamber of Commerce Chairman Robert Gomez and Reno-Sparks Indian Colony Chairman Arlan Menendez..

This summer, Hillary has drawn huge crowds across the Silver State , including 3,500 in Reno , more than 3,000 in Las Vegas and even 2,500 in rural Pahrump--where she's opened a regional field office.

The Clinton campaign has brought the Hillary tour to most of the Western states, and has a strong on-the-ground presence with offices, field organizers, and thousands of volunteers spanning the region.

And the West is turning out to be a stronger region for Hillary Clinton than anyone anticipated.

1.      Hillary Is Winning

Democratic Primary

Hillary leads the Democratic primary by more than 20 points in the West, with an overwhelming lead in Arizona , California , Colorado , Nevada , Oregon , and Washington .

Recent Democratic Primary Polls

State     Poll                  Results                    

AZ    ARG Oct 5-9        HRC 41 / Edwards 16 / Obama 14       +25

CA   San Jose Oct 1-8    HRC 42 / Obama 20 / Edwards 14      +22

CO   ARG Sept 15-18      HRC 36 / Obama 20 / Edwards 19       +16

NV    ARG Oct 5-9       HRC 51 / Edwards 14 / Obama 11        +37

OR   Riley Aug 10-15     HRC 26 / Obama 18 / Edwards 17       +8

WA  S Vision Oct 5-7     HRC 48 / Obama 22 / Edwards 10      +26

Hillary leads the Democratic primary by more than 30 points among Latinos, more than 40 points among women, more than 20 points among men, more than thirty points among whites and more than 10 points among African-Americans.  She also wins among urban, suburban and rural voters.

General Election

Hillary is winning the general election in New Mexico , a state which Bush won in 2004, and in California , Oregon and Washington .

Together with Hawaii , this means Hillary Clinton is starting with two-thirds of the electoral votes in the West.

And because of her unique ability to take advantage of changing demographics, Hillary can also turn Colorado , Arizona , Nevada and Montana from Red to Blue.  Bill Clinton was the only Democrat since 1968 to win these states, and Hillary Clinton is the only Democrat positioned to win them in 2008.

Hillary has an 8 point lead over Rudy Giuliani nationally in the latest ABC/Washington Post poll, and she leads by more than 40 points among Latinos, 18 points among women, 13 points among moderates and more than 80 points among African-Americans in that poll and other recent polls - all crucial voter blocks in the West and nationally.

General Election

State        Poll                Results            

CA   Surv USA Sept 14-16      HRC 57 / Giuliani 37          +20                                

                                      HRC 60 / Thompson 34   +26      

                                      HRC 63 / Romney 30     +33

NM   Surv USA Sept 14-16       HRC 51 / Giuliani 43         +8

                                      HRC 53 / Thompson 42   +11

                                      HRC 54 / Romney 39     +15

OR Surv USA Sept 14-16          HRC 46 / Giuliani 44          +2  

                                      HRC 49 / Thompson 42   +7

                                      HRC 51 / Romney 38    +13

WA  Survey USA Aug 10-12        HRC 55 / Giuliani 40          +15

                                      HRC 57 / Thompson 38   +19

                                      HRC 57 / Romney 36     +21

2. Why Hillary Is Winning

Changing Demographics

Two key groups help explain why the West is breaking for Hillary: Latinos and women.  They were the swing voter groups whose movement towards Bush gave him victory in 2004 and whose support will be vital to a Democratic victory in 2008.  And Hillary has stronger support among these groups than any other Democratic or Republican candidate.

   * Latinos favor Hillary Clinton by more than 30 points in the Democratic primary and more than 40 points in the general election.
    * Women made up 54 percent of the electorate last time, and they make up an even bigger slice of the Democratic primary - including 59 percent in Arizona , where the last two governors were both women.  Women favor Hillary Clinton by more than 40 points in the Democratic primary and 18 points in the general election.
    * An overwhelming 94 percent of young women say they would turn out to vote for the first woman president because it would be important to them.  And a 10 percent increase in women turning out for Hillary Clinton alone would flip New Mexico , Nevada and Colorado to the Democrats.

These demographic trends are a big part of the reason Democrats recently picked up a US Senate seat in Montana , the Colorado governor's race, House seats in Colorado , Arizona and California and the Oregon state legislature.

Hillary's Message and Lifetime of Achievement on Issues that Matter to Western Voters

Why are Westerners so crazy about Hillary Clinton?  Because on the issues that matter to Western voters - like sensible immigration reform, environmental protection, alternative energy, Yucca Mountain, choice, health insurance for children, reducing the budget deficit and ending the Iraq war - Hillary is the only candidate with the experience and record of accomplishment to get the job done.

And Hillary has been reaching out to women and Latinos more than any other campaign - with a bilingual Website and a Website for Women for Hillary, and extensive national and local outreach to both of these core groups, communicating her historic message of change, leadership and experience.

The old adage says as goes the West so goes the country.  If that's true, it's just another sign that Hillary Clinton is poised to win.

Penn released this memo on Friday in anticipation of Hillary Rodham Clinton's trip to Nevada  called "Ready to Lead in the West" .

For more information about her trip to Nevada :

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/actioncent er/event/view/?id=4035

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/hq/nevada/

She discussed her plans for healthcare in  " A Discussion on Healthcare with Hillary Clinton " at East Las Vegas Community Center

For more information about how the campaign is doing in Nevada.

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/hq/nevada/

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/actioncent er/event/view/?id=4033

Anyone who hasn't read the book by Thomas F. Schaller,          

" Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South "

should read it. He's bottomline forget the south and look west in the general election .

I am for a 50 state strategy in local and state level but not on a presidential level especially not in 08 , anyone who claims he/she can win in the deep south I hope is just using it as a campaign strategy in the primary election but I expect our candidates to use their resources and fund strategically in the general. Its okay if you talk about winning in missisipi , alabama to rile up as long as when you get into the general you use your resources in iowa , missouri , ohio and other western state.

Taylor Marsh has an interesting interview with Thomas F. Schaller, the podcast is up and I recommend it as a pretty good listen.

http://www.taylormarsh.com/taylor_marsh_ live.php 

The Clinton campaign understands that the battle is going to be in the west (i.e. South West and Midwest ) , I hope other campaigns do as well.

There's more...

African Americans throw support behind Clinton

Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead over Sen. Barack Obama, her chief rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, is growing among African-American voters who are registered Democrats, and particularly among black women, a poll said Wednesday.

Sen. Hillary Clinton is the top choice of African-American Democrats, a new poll suggests.

Among black registered Democrats overall, Clinton had a 57 percent to 33 percent lead over Obama.

That's up from 53 percent for Clinton and 36 percent for Obama in a poll carried out in April.

The question had a sampling error of plus-or-minus 6.5 percentage points.

The former first lady's strongest support among blacks came from black women, 68 percent of whom identified her as their likely choice, versus 25 percent who cited Obama, the senator from Illinois who is African-American.

Black men who are registered Democrats were nearly evenly split, with 42 percent favoring Clinton and 46 percent favoring Obama. The sampling error of that question was plus-or-minus 8 percentage points.

Black registered Democrats also appeared more sure of themselves than did whites, with two-thirds (67 percent) of blacks saying they would definitely support whichever candidate they had said they favored, versus one-third (33 percent) who said they might change their minds.

The 26-point difference between black women and men underscores the fact that the nation's vote is divided not only by race, but also by gender, said CNN political analyst Bill Schneider. "Black women don't just vote their black identity," he said. "They also vote their identity as women."

"The 'sistah' vote is paying off handsomely for Hillary Clinton," said Democratic political strategist Donna Brazile. "It's not only getting her the women's vote. It's also getting her the black vote."

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/17/p oll.blacks.democrats/

There is a new Fox news poll out as well , the aim of the poll was to test the effect of a third party run from a christian conservative , so lets hope Guiliani is the nominee and they bolt.

In a head-to-head contest, Clinton has a 4 percentage point edge over Giuliani -- 47 percent to 43 percent. Clinton has maintained a slim advantage over Giuliani for the last few months.

In a hypothetical three-way race, an unnamed Christian Conservative third party candidate receives the support of 14 percent of voters, and Clinton tops Giuliani by 10 points (44 percent to 34 percent).

Giuliani's support among Republicans drops from 79 percent in the two-way race to 60 percent when the third party Christian Conservative is included.

By a 56 percent to 35 percent margin, self-identified Born Again Christians back Giuliani over Clinton. When given the option, about a quarter of this group says they would vote for a Christian Conservative candidate -- reducing Giuliani's support by 20 points: Giuliani 36 percent, Clinton 30 percent and the Christian Conservative 26 percent.

Among conservatives, Giuliani's support falls from 57 percent in the head-to-head race against Clinton to 42 percent when a third-party conservative is included.

In other two-way matchups, the poll finds that Clinton tops McCain by 3 points, and bests both Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney by 12 points.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,3027 76,00.html 

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New Iowa Poll : Clinton leads

The first Rasmussen Reports poll of the Iowa Democratic Caucus for 2008 finds Senator Hillary Clinton on top with support from 33% of Likely Caucus Participants. Former North Carolina Senator John Edwards is supported by 22% and Illinois Senator Barack Obama attracts 21%. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is at 7% in the poll followed by Delaware Senator Joe Biden at 4% (see crosstabs).

Clinton has a substantial lead among women, attracting 39% of the female vote. She has a much smaller advantage among men, leading Edwards just 28% to 24%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/democratic_iowa_caucus

There's more...

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