For all political junkies out there, Campaign Diaries has just published the first part of its 2010 House ratings, devoted to GOP-held seats that could be competitive in 2010.

There are a total of 62 seats on the list. The quick take: 6 races are rated as toss-ups, 12 as lean retention and 44 as likely retention. Here's the accompanying graph:

There's more...

Those who follow NY-20 must have seen the latest headlines: Scott Murphy has increased his lead to 365 votes as Warren County counted some of the challenged ballots, making it even more difficult to figure out how in the world Tedisco could pull off a comeback.

The second recent development: Yesterday, Judge Brands overturned his own ruling from last week sided with Tedisco, ruling that the GOP was allowed to challenge ballots on a case-by-case basis. (Many of the GOP's challenges concern voters who have a second residence outside of the district.)

There's more...

We've been waiting for 6 days to get a result in NY-20, and we could finally get some answers in the coming days. A court ruled today that absentee ballots could start being counted on Wednesday. (Republicans were arguing that counties should have to wait until all absentee ballots come in next week.)

There's more...

EFCA is not expected to come to the floor in the coming weeks, since Democrats will wait for Al Franken to get his seat before attempting anything. Yet, we have been hearing a lot about the bill - and it looks like conservatives are increasingly confident about the bill's prospects. So it seems important to know where we stand and who are the Democratic Senators who are holding EFCA down.

Today, Campaign Diaries posted a detailed whip count on the EFCA bill.

There's more...

I already posted this on my blog, at Campaign Diaries. I am cross-posting it here because it arose as a response to a diary by "the mollusk."

With Democrats in a position to shape legislation for the first time this decade, ideological disputes were bound to arise quickly - and centrists led by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner are already winning the Administration's first internal battles:

There's more...

Bumped from the diaries -- Jonathan

This is cross-posted from my blog, Campaign Diaries.

Over the past two cycles, Republicans lost 13 Senate seats (14 if Al Franken emerges victorious in Minnesota). And the GOP's Senate nightmare is set to continue for the third cycle in a row: 2004 was a great year for Senate Republicans, so they have many more vulnerable seats to defend in 2010.

No matter what the political environment will be in two years, Republicans are looking to spend yet another cycle playing defense and Democrats are more likely than not to gain the one or two seats they will need to finally achieve a filibuster-proof majority.

There's more...

More numbers are coming in from Alaska, and Mark Begich has more than doubled his lead! He is now ahead by 2374 votes.

The calculations are simple: Stevens needs 65% of the remaining ballots to storm ahead... Might be technically too early to call the race, but it looks virtually impossible that Stevens could come back.

There's more...

This was cross-posted on my blog, at Campaign Diaries. There is a lot of confusion about CA-04 and AK-Sen, so this is an attempt to look at what remains to be counted. (Also posted today, a look at the impact of Obama's Cabinet appointments on the 2010 landscape.)


When the Alaska's Division of Election finally updated their totals this evening, it was once again Mark Begich who gained the most, extending his lead from 814 to 1022 votes (or 0.35%).

There's more...

Rasmussen has released its latest poll wave, and the results are great for Obama:

In Ohio, he takes the lead for the first time in a Rasmussen poll, 49% to 47%.

There's more...

Posted on Campaign Diaries. You can also check the House ratings here.

Over the past two months, the Senate playing field has gotten much clearer, and the gap between competitive seats and sleeper races has widened.

On the one hand, Democrats have solidified their position in the top-tier. They have managed to catapult North Carolina into the toss-up category, finally reaching their goal of putting 9 GOP-held seats in play. As a series of stunning developments in Alaska left the GOP pinning its hopes on an indicted incumbent, there now are five Republican-held seats that are leaning towards Democrats. That is not to say that Democrats can take 5 seats for granted (in fact, they appear to have sealed the deal in only two contests), but a testament to the fact that Senate Democrats remain poised to have a strong night on November 4th.

There's more...