SUSA released a new poll from Minnesota today -- and the results are very similar to yesterday's survey from Wisconsin
: The state clearly trends Democratic, Hillary Clinton is stronger than Barack Obama, and John McCain is the only Republican who wins a match-up.
Full poll numbers and analysis here, on Campaign Diaries.
- Clinton edges out John McCain by only 3 points, 48% to 45%. She leads Rudy Giuliani 49% to 43%, Romney 54% to 37%, and Huckabee 54% to 36%.
- Obama trails McCain 46% to 43%, ties Giuliani 44%, leads Romney 49% to 38%, and leads Huckabee 52% to 33%.
Link to poll here
. It is in many ways not a surprise that Wisconsin and Minnesota have similar results. Both are midwestern states with progressive roots that have gone very competitive in recent elections... and both turned more Democratic in 2006. Clearly, the Democratic nominee has an opportunity to put this sort of state away early instead of having to fight to keep them as Al Gore and John Kerry had to do.
It is also interesting to see that Rudy Giuliani would put Northeastern states (NJ, CT) in play, while McCain would put Midwestern states in play more than other candidates. Both have their own advantage electability-wise.
- Democrats stronger in Missouri
Research 2000 released a poll from Missouri
today. And the top 3 Democrats lead all 12 of their match-ups against the 3 Republicans -- and here too, McCain is the strongest GOPer.
- Hillary Clinton crushes Rudy Giuliani 47% to 39%, Mitt Romney 47% to 38%, and Fred Thompson 46% to 38%. She also leads McCain, albeit by a smaller 46% to 41%.
- Obama leads 46% to 42% against Giuliani, 46% to 38% against Romney, 47% to 38% against Thompson. He does lead McCain by 6 points, though, 46% to 40%.
- Edwards leads Giuliani 47% to 40%, Romney 47% to 38%, Thompson 47% to 37%, and McCain 46% to 41%.
- It is worth noting that these results come despite Hillary Clinton's high unfavorables (47-48), while Obama stands at 45-31. The Republican numbers are bad (Giuliani is also 47-48), which seems to be a result of the voters souring on the GOP.
The primary numbers for the GOP are also very interesting. It would seem unimportant, given that MO is neither an early state nor one in which the campaign is particularly engaged, but this is precisely why the results are so valuable: Rudy Giuliani arrives on top with 24%, yes, but Mitt Romney is close behind at 17%, ahead of Thompson and McCain. Now, we are not used to seeing Romney second in states in which the campaign has not been engaged, since he has such lower name recognition. So the fact that he is tightening this thing up everywhere now is a sure sign that he has taken his appeal nationally. Hillary leads the Democratic primary 36% to 21%, with Edwards stronger than usual at 20%.
Also today, Barack Obama wins national match-ups in a new Rasmussen national poll. Check Campaign Diaries for more political news and analysis.