Is this why Rendell's concern? 2 pt. lead?

by latinomaker, Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 01:19:42 PM EDT

Is this connected to the report by Politico.com regarding the two internal memos sent by Pennsylvania Governor Edward Rendell.

The Hill is reporting that an internal poll from the Obama campaign in Pennsylvania shows him just two points ahead.

If this is true & even the Governor is asking for help, I hope the cavalry comes as soon as possible. I would bring in Barack, Hillary, Bill & Joe to Western PA for at least two more large rallies.

There is no reason we should lose PA. And we certainly cannot afford being up by low single digits in this state going into November 4. If Obama goes into PA leading by 1,2,3 or even 4% by November 3rd, that's not a good sign.

If there is a state that will somehow produce a Bradley Effect or last minute defections by white working class voters, PA would be right up there together with OH.

Obama should be able to fix this problem by coming back to PA with Hillary Clinton. Joe Biden & Bill Clinton should also comeback for a rally.

For people with a short memory. Gov. Rendell was ahead by around 23 to 25 points exactly two weeks before the election based on three independent polling organizations.

Come election day, Rendell carried PA by just single digit of
about 8%. PA is very capable of surprising the nation.

This is the last thing we need.

http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2008/10/ 22/report-obama-internal-poll-shows-two- point-race-in-pennsylvania/

Tags: obama, PA., Rendell (all tags)

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Re: Is this why Rendell's concern? 2 pt. lead?

Yes because Pennsylvania's delegates count more than those of other states...So it makes more sense to spend time there than say Ohio, Florida, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico or North Carolina...

Oh wait.. they don't!

Let McCain go crazy with Pennsylvania.. throw in one more rally and if things look tight consider paying bribes in Philly...

by obama4presidente 2008-10-22 01:22PM | 0 recs

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Re: Is this why Rendell's concern? 2 pt. lead?

It would be inexcusable to lose PA. At one time, this was a much easier state to win than OH or FL which are still not guaranteed, especially OH.

Ed Rendell and Hillary's campaign started this mess for obama in terms of being negatively received in this state. If they want to help Obama, this is the state to do so.

by Pravin 2008-10-23 05:18AM | 0 recs

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Re: Is this why Rendell's concern? 2 pt. lead?

If you look at pollster.com, Obama could lose PA and then win the whole thing by winning either FL, OH, NC, or NV. Of these, I would guess that NV is his best shot. So, yes, let's win PA.

by the mollusk 2008-10-22 01:24PM | 0 recs

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Re: Is this why Rendell's concern? 2 pt. lead?

I believe Obama still has a better shot at carrying PA over OH. Two electoral rich states.

Not that he can't carry OH but PA has been voting Blue for the last 4 presidential races. Not to mention a large dem registration advantage and a powerful dem political machine compared to Ohio.

Obama's sudden drop ( if true) in PA is due to conservative white democrats who were leaning Obama but seem to be having some apprehension. ( due to the barrage of "racial based" attacks by GOP operatives )

Jack Murtha's stupid comments certainly contributed to all this supposed drop in white support in Western PA.

by latinomaker 2008-10-22 01:33PM | 0 recs

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Re: Is this why Rendell's concern? 2 pt. lead?

yeah, that was pretty much the point that I didn't ever make. I don't want to rely on OH (or FL or NC) for a win. PA is a much safer bet. If Obama has to spend a few extra days there, I think it's worth it.

Stepping back for a moment, though, I'm surprised internal polls are showing the race to be so close. The latest big-ticket polls have it at 10-12 %. What do you think is the reason for the difference?

by the mollusk 2008-10-22 01:37PM | 0 recs

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Muhlenberg Poll Today has Obama +11

This story is old, if there ever was such a poll it didn't just come out, I heard this story at least a week ago.

Murtha's comments were of no consequence, and there has not been a sudden drop of Obama support in PA.

by Davidsfr 2008-10-22 01:44PM | 0 recs

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This is an old story

I saw this at least a week ago, and there has always been doubt about it. For one thing, Obama wouldn't be signaling he isn't coming back to the state if this were true. Other than that, the whole business about the radio host getting the e-mail "without permission" is fishy.

I don't know what the truth is--maybe there was an internal showing just a 2-point lead at one time, there were public polls showing that in September after all--but I am sure Obama is not just 2 points ahead in PA.

by Davidsfr 2008-10-22 01:42PM | 0 recs

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Re: Is this why Rendell's concern? 2 pt. lead?

it might be a way to keep the PA people from getting complacent. without early voting we can't bank an early lead or anything.

by Doug Tuttle 2008-10-22 01:47PM | 0 recs

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Re: Is this why Rendell's concern? 2 pt. lead?

So we are worried about mysterious internal polls? Give Obama some credit, he hasn't failed us yet and if such a poll existed I am sure he has a plan to combat that.

I am not saying we should celebrate just yet, but it is okay to be smiling more than our republican counter parts.

by Xris 2008-10-22 01:49PM | 0 recs

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Re: Is this why Rendell's concern? 2 pt. lead?

Maybe Obama's trying to pigeonhole McCain, make him waste his time in Pennsylvania while the Obama campaign sews up North Carolina, Indiana, Ohio, etc.

by TheUnknown285 2008-10-22 01:50PM | 0 recs

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Well yeah.

and we younger folk who don't believe in the Bradley effect are just having too much damn fun to stop now.

I swear, the Obama HQ in my town is like a dating service with all those coed staffers spending every waking moment together.

by Dracomicron 2008-10-22 02:02PM | 0 recs

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LOL!

You guys sound like an E-harmony ad:

"I met my future partner while we were crushing the McCain/Palin campaign, and ejecting the criminal elements of the Republican party from government..Oh, and we both like movies and dogs!"

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-22 02:05PM | 0 recs

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Yeah yeah

I meant "co-ed" as in there are both boys and girls involved with the campaign; I wasn't pushing a heterocentric agenda.

by Dracomicron 2008-10-23 05:36AM | 0 recs

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Aw

That's it. Just "Aw."

by Dracomicron 2008-10-23 06:06AM | 0 recs

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Re: Yeah yeah

I wasn't pushing a heterocentric agenda.

No, here we leave that to YellowDem. He's so much funnier at it....

by WashStateBlue 2008-10-23 08:43AM | 0 recs

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Re: Is this why Rendell's concern? 2 pt. lead?

The points made in three posts above I think are correct. I don't believe that is what a recent internal polled showed. I think Ob leaked the poll, possible to combat complacency. It is also possibly a head fake to McIdiot to get him to spend time and money in a place that is for him hopeless. I also don't believe that Rendell would make any concerns he had public.

by msw4477 2008-10-22 02:12PM | 0 recs

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Re: Is this why Rendell's concern? 2 pt. lead?

Rendell just wants us on our toes

He said at a rally 2 weeks ago he wants a 75% turnout in philly and he is doing all he can to make sure no one is staying home

by wellinformed 2008-10-22 03:37PM | 0 recs

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It's an old rumor

And it's never been verified.

Perhaps some will be motivated more by it.

by elrod 2008-10-22 06:37PM | 0 recs

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Re: Is this why Rendell's concern? 2 pt. lead?

I don't know. I know that in NWPA the republicans are playing even dirtier than normal. As far as i can tell from here, we are doing well but i will be speaking to more people on the ground tomorrow and i will let you know what i find out from them.

by selfevident 2008-10-22 07:07PM | 0 recs

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Re: Is this why Rendell's concern? 2 pt. lead?

Maybe they want to charge the campaign up, after John King reported that Pennsylvania would be McCain's primary focus. I would assume that internal polls would be designed to calculate worse case scenarios. They'd be the most useful that way.

by Drummond 2008-10-22 08:03PM | 0 recs

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Re: Is this why Rendell's concern? 2 pt. lead?

If Pennsylvania were really as tight as people in the media would have us believe, then wouldn't the public polling show some sign of this? I'm sure the race will get somewhat closer as election day approaches, but the public polls really make it look like a longshot for McCain right now.

These polling companies earn their credibility and their reputation by being as accurate as possible. That's all they care about. How can they all be so far off the mark?

by Will Graham 2008-10-22 08:20PM | 0 recs

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In '04, the polls were almost right on

Per electoral-vote.com,
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/st ates/pennsylvania.html

I don't see an October 2004 poll which had Kerry up by more than 6 - and all the polls (except Zogby) had Kerry up by 1-3 points (except Zogby). And the final margin was 2.http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/r esults/states/PA/P/00/

Rendell may have tanked near the end in PA, but Kerry didn't. And there's no hard evidence to suggest that Obama will tank, especially with the increased D registration advantage in PA.

by tietack 2008-10-23 07:45AM | 0 recs