For three strong reasons, the Democrats will gain an additional seat in the House of Representatives this Spring.  The first is the taint which Randy "Duke" Cunningham's (R) criminal conduct has left on the GOP in CA-50, second is the number of Republican candidates running in the April 11 election, and the third is the date of the (potential) run-off election.

For those familiar with the upcoming Congressional election in CA-50, skip the blockquote below and continue on to read my reasons why Busby will win on April 11.

For the unaware, Francine Busby (D) is running in the upcoming special election on April 11, 2006 to replace the seat in the House of Representatives formerly held by Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R).  Duke is the disgraced former Congressman who has admitted and pled guilty to accepting millions of dollars of bribes from defense contractors.

   Busby is the only serious Democratic candidate on the ballot and is facing a sea of 8-10 Republican opponents.  If any one candidate receives 50%+1 of the vote on April 11, that person is CA-50's newest Congressperson.  However, if no one gets a majority of the vote, there will be a run-off election between the top vote getters of each party to determine the winner, which is scheduled for California's Big primary election in June, 2006.

My three reasons why Busby will win:

  1.  CA-50's Congressional seat has been in the hands of a corrupt Republican for the past 16 years.  But Duke wasn't just any corrupt Republican.  Duke is the only GOP member who has publicly admitted his criminal conduct and is facing a serious sentence of up to ten years in federal prison.  The book on Duke is closed--the only matter still pending is how long he'll be sitting in his cell.  Recent polls taken in CA-50 indicate that about 90% of the electorate there disapproves of Duke.  In a district with slightly higher Republican registration than Democratic, this is surely a great sign.  The voters will be eager to move away from Duke and the GOP's more general corruption scandals (Abramoff, etc.) will surely affect even ethical Republican candidates vying for this seat.  The one and only candidate in this election who will not be linkable to Duke's and the GOP's unbelievable stench of corruption is Busby.

  2.  Busby is the only serious, funded Democrat on the April 11 ballot.  Meanwhile, there are 8-10 Republican opponents on the ticket, all hoping that they will move onto the primary.  Several of the Republicans are very well funded and it is inconceivable that any one of the many republicans would be able to capture the necessary 50%+1 of the vote, needed to avoid a primary.  We can rest completely assured that the only candidate who can possibly win 50%+1 on April 11 is Busby, due to the huge number of serious Republican opponenents (splitting the conservative vote) and the fact that Busby is the only viable Democratic candidate.

  3.  If Busby does not capture 50%+1 of the vote on April 11, the run-off will be held as a part of the general California Primary.  Currently, there will be no serious primary for the Republicans running for Governor of CA or for the Senate seat in 2006.  Meanwhile, there is going to be a hot primary to select the Democratic opponent to face off with Governor Schwarzenegger in the fall. That means that Republican turn-out should be quite low while Democratic voters will be very interested in showing up at the polls in June.  This can only help Busby as Republican turnout in the district will be depressed and Democratic turnout should be higher than usual.

For more information on Busby's campaign, or to find out how to volunteer your time or finances, go here:

http://www.busbyforcongress.org

I hope that everyone here will do what they can to make our dream of a Democrat controlled House of Representatives a reality in 2006.  The road to the takeover of Congress begins early this year.  A Busby victory in CA-50 (which voted--just barely--for GWB in 2004) would send chills down the backsides of every Republican in the country!