And still he has very limited support amongst low income voters and within the black community which rather proves my point. Edwards' identity, as viewed by these communities, is as a rich white lawyer. Now that may not be a particularly accurate reflection of him as a man or of him as a presidential candidate but it is the current state of play.

Rather expected it to happen given Rasmussen's recent polls. Obama's campaign has been strong so far.

He's a rich white guy. That's the problem. Sure he cares about the poor but there's always that doubt in the back of the mind of voters about whether the rich guy is simply using them.

Edwards is the rich guy, Obama is the elite black guy and HRC is a woman.

If Edwards had a long history of supporting the poor then perhaps he would be viewed differently but the change in strategy came quite recently and is connected to a presidential campaign so I think there is good reason for some scepticism.

Personally I like Edwards but if I was a low income voter I doubt I would trust him with my vote. At an emotional level the rich white lawyer is a vote loser in this instance, amongst this group of voters.

I think the candidate and the message are a poor fit. It doesn't resonate. Sometimes a rich white person can connect with the poor to the extent that they believe him to be their candidate, while other times it just seems false, as though the politician is using them to win office.

Bobby Kennedy managed it but at the moment it doesn't seem as though John Edwards is being viewed by low income groups as "one of us".

They polled in advance of the debate according to the text on their website. I would say that if Rasmussen's likely voter model is correct then Obama is in a very strong position.

No it isn't. Obama leads HRC by 2 with Edwards a distant third. The distance between Edwards and Richardson is practically the same as the distance between 2nd place HRC and 3rd place Edwards; is anyone seriously calling this a 4 horse race? Of course not.

I think you might be right.

Every poll out of Iowa has shown Edwards leading so it is hardly going to be much of a shock if he wins. New Hampshire is rather different.

I would say that it is vital for all the main contenders to get a win somewhere in Jan.

I think New Hampshire may be the best indicator of who takes Feb 5th. If Obama beats HRC by a significant margin then I think it would difficult for her to win on Feb 5th. It is possible that the Florida primary could act as a catalyst for HRC to gain momentum going into Feb 5th if it is held in jan. At present the exact dates of some of the primaries and caucuses are uncertain.

Interesting post upto the point where you try to connect it to HRC and which point it falls to pieces. There is no logic to your statements - assuming HRC will get portrayed as a north-eastern liberal? The Clinton Bush thing, again why? They don't relate to the earlier assessment of previous elections.

HRC's chances in Ohio are excellent now that we have a democratic SoS.

Fred Thompson's numbers are interesting especially if you compare them to 2nd tier candidates that are actually running. I wonder if he will jump in.

People write diaries about subjects that are of interest to them. And others comment on diaries and main blog articles that are of interest to them.

A lot of people on this site are interested in polling data.

Progressives are not allowed, for reasons I don't understand, to support HRC in preference to the other candidates running.

I am to the left of virtually everyone on MyDD and yet my first choice is HRC. Sure some of her positions annoy me but she's a far better candidate (using the criteria by which I assess candidates) than the other contenders.

But which one is incorrect?

If it was Edwards whose numbers were varying wildly I could make sense of it. And would assume that the higher figure was more realistic because his efforts have been target at the sort of people who actually turn out to vote in the primaries. But HRC and Obama would seem to me to be equally vulnerable to having support that doesn't show up on the day.

We've already had a diary on why people support HRC and it, not surprisingly, got trashed by HRC haters. So little point in repeating that fiasco.