by kristoph, Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 03:45:42 PM EDT
The latest numbers from Indiana were just released by SurveyUSA. McCain now has a solid 6 point lead (a 7 point change over a 60 day period).
McCain is now projected by RCP to win the electoral college by 10.
Obviously, still some time to go, but the trend certainly favors McCain at the moment.
Why is this happening?
Tags: electoral college, mccain, obama, RCP (all tags)
I see your last prediction came true also:
Clinton will have a 100+ delegate lead after 2/5
I am not predicting anything (mainly because I was so wrong before, as you aptly - and unceremoniously - note).
I am just asking why it's happening. What is Obama doing or not doing that is causing this slide?
The "the sky is falling" comment is really getting old. People are worried- and for good reason. If you don't like the worry- don't read. Why insult valid comments?
Childish.
I uprated you because of the diarists misrepresentation, which I now put into evidence:
"McCain is now projected by RCP to win the electoral college by 10."
Which is inflammatory and inaccurate. RCP is not predicting a McCain victory. They are reporting the results of a poll taken more than 2 months out from the Election and prior to the Conventions and any debates.
Fear mongering is not immune from smack down.
Thank you QTG, and might I say that it seems to me none of these polls are polling recently registered voters nor people who only have cell phones.
It's happening because Obama is a polarizing candidate who has yet to connect with "middle america" voters, while McCain has a natural advantage with that constituency. Moreover, recent international events do not play to Obama's advantage.
Basically, in a year where generic Democrat wins by double digits in elections, Obama is tied for the presidency.
Generic Democrat would never survive the "He's too generic!" smear campaign.
Generic Democrat is only winning because nobody's spent any time tearing Generic Democrat down.
Trust me, Generic Democrat would be just as fucked as anyone else at this stage of the game.
There is no generic democrat. That politician does not exist. They all have their strengths and weaknesses. Hillary Clinton is not a generic democrat. If she had won the nomination I imagine she would be polling about as well as Obama right now. She certainly wouldn't be out front by 15 points as some people seem to expect our nominee to be.
I think we are probably a day away from the first:
"McCain will win in a Reagan Landslide"
Diary here.
This place is becoming NoQuarter Jr. depending on the time of day....
Why does the electoral map here on mydd not reflect the latest poll results like RCP does?
Seriously I don't understand why issues can't be discussed and how to deal with them. It is very troubling to the cause that in these current times a Democratic nominee is not outpolling the GOP. You couldn't have an election on a silver platter more. So either the situation is faced head on & worked on or blissfully ignored while we live with another how many years of worsening hell.
No it beyond pisses me off that people are too busy being defensive to not want to deal with the reality & the prospect of having to live with the ramifications of this is sickening. There is no excuse for things to be this close & something NEEDS to be done about it.
Yes, well, I agree but, more generally, I'd just like to find out what people think is happening.
Obama has not really done anything badly, McCain has not done anything especially well, so what's the deal?
Where is this 'shift' (and I appreciate it's magnitude is debatable) coming from?
]{
This person is cherry picking a poll with no toss up where no one in their right mind would count a .5% lead with a 4 point margin of error as significant. Also, people kee bringing up generic Democrats vs. Generic Republicans as an example of Obama underperforming, which is just moronic because the generic Republican doesn't register low 60 approval like McCain does in any poll. If you want to debate facts, bring them, but if you're going to be an intellectually dishonest shitstirrer, then you get a like response. For those who like Democratic representation, here's a rallying cry: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5q-Jnj-hZ zs
I certainly feel a fire under my ass lately.
I really couldn't feel less enthusiastic about Obama right now, but compared to McCain well... I have 4 year old twin sons, I was holding them in my arms as infants 4 years ago when Bush won his second term. I never want that helpless, hopeless feeling ever again. McCain must not win.
Seeing McCain gaining strength has kicked me into action. I've always known that I would vote for Obama, now I am also giving money and looking into volunteering for his campaign. For my sons.
Instead of wringing your hands and worrying, get to work! What are you doing to defeat McCain?
I live in NY, which should be solid blue but Obama is even slipping here. The current Siena poll for NY shows Obama at 47 to McCain's 39 percent, which is down from 50-37 percent in July and 51-33 percent in June. Obama's lead has fallen from 18 points in June to 8 points today.
Of course Obama will win NY but for some reason that poll really made me see how vulnerable Obama is to McCain and how much work we all must be doing!
Remember, all Obama has to do is keep all the Kerry states and win New Mexico and two small states or one of the swing states such as Colorado, Ohio, Florida, or Indiana. Obama is only down 2 in Florida. I still think Obama is going to win Ohio and Florida and Colorado and Virginia. Not going to win Indiana or Missouri. He will probably win Montana, and ND too.
OH is important & unfortunately he was less likely to pick that state up, which was one of the arguments in the primary IIRC. So how do we make an OH and FL more likely since they are more realistic then some of the other states that have been tossed around as in play.
Pollster has Obama still up
Fivethirtyeight has Obama still up
RCP has NH as a toss up? BS
Did you read the numbers ? Just curious- because many of them that are considered toss ups like MN are in fact in Obama's favor. Also other that are toss up like OH are either tie or +2 Obama. The race is tight, but this is a bit much.
Actually, although MN is considered a toss up, but the number I am quoting puts it in Obama's favor.
So McCain is up by 10 with MN to Obama.
Ohio was given to McCain by RCP because latest polls put him up by about 2.
But anyway the point I am making is that Obama was up by like 70 30 days ago, now he down by 10. There is a trend.
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