Lets put the foreign policy debate first

Whatever Republican strategist thought up that one is probably filing for unemployment.  Bush figured he could use this tactic to deliver a knockout.  Other than the frequent lies (which I'll blog later), Bush sounded almost incoherent.  I watched this debate at the Chester County Republican Headquarters and the faces on the crowd were telling. (It was very weird to "cheer" for W, but I wanted to see GOP reaction rather than Democratic reaction)

In baseball, it was like having runners in scoring position and coming up with no runs. In football, it was like going for it on 4th and 2 and losing on downs.

Several interesting comments there, several wondered why Bush was leaning forward on podium, why he looked pale and one guy kept saying "Don't just look around (when Kerry was speaking) takes notes and hit back" 

I think this went bad for W (sort of a C-)  The next debate is a Town Hall (which is where W seemed to be at his least comfortable) and even with the soft supporters in the audience, it spells trouble for anyone can't answer his detractors.

THe message for Kerry supporters from now to 11/2 "Bush is a Liar"

I think this message resonates with people and invigorates your supporters.  Even if someone disagrees with the accusation of lieing, it's such a serious charge, you have to defend it
  1. Sure I changed my position, because I accepted that the Bush Cheney White House wouldn't lie to Congresss about WMD, about Saddam Hussein buying nuclear materials, about a how costlky military action would be in Iraq.  Now I don't believe them and I don't trust them; its too costly for our troops and security.
  2. They said this war would be over in days and weeks.  They said the war would pay for itself.  Bush said mission accomplished over a year ago.  All those statements were either lies or fantasies.   No one should die for a lie.  We can't imperil our tropps with the rosy guessork of the Bush Cheney team.
  3.  The biggest lie in the war on terror is that Saddam Hussein was responsible for 9/11.  Bush waited 44 days to hunt down Osama bin Laden hiding place in Afghanistan and then lies and says in order to win the war on terror, we must go to war in Iraq.  Terroirism is on the ri9se beacuse of teh Bush administration's lies.
We must be relentless.  Its about Bush's lies, PERIOD

Kerry's best themes for Foreign Policy debate

Does anyone think Kerry should do anything more than pound away at ideas that most Americans support
  1. Its bin Laden not Hussein (the war on terror has been lost by not catching this guy)
  2. None of the two dozen reasons for invading Irag were based on good facts or credible intelligence; just fantasy and guesswork.
  3. The Bush Cheney preemptive strike policy has made America and the world more dangerous and less secure
  4. The Intelligence Policy of the Bush Cheney Administration wants to return to the world to assasinations of our enemies, rigged elections for our friends.
Bush wants to get Kerry sucked into the policy nuance debate: Kerry should counter Bush with Bush (his words, his inaction pre 9/11, his campaign promises) and make the broad argument America is less safe than it was 4 years ago and this administration is directly responsible for making America less safe.

Moving the foreign policy debate is a mistake for Bush and an opportunity for Kerry

Bush is trying to protect himself from another shoe dropping in Iraq or Afghanistan (most notably an increasing casualty count).  The reverse may happen.   Like 1980, when Carter asked for another debate at the end of October, the decision to put foreign policy first (a plus for incumbents and Republicans) may backfire.  Kerry's relative success in winning the mind numbing "lowered expectations" game will mean a good performance by Kerry in the foreign policy debate on Thurday coupled with two primarily domestic policy debates (a plus for non-incumbents and Democrats) will create a large political tide towards Kerry.

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