How to get nominated

Candidate A and Candidate B ( and 7 others) want to be elected President.  So they begin campaigning.  Candidate A has the highest name recognition and leads the field in all the the pre-primary polls.  Candidate B is well known and has polled in double digits far behind Candidate A.

Candidate A has aggressively pursued endorsements from elected officials, has sought out commitments from Superdelegates ahead of the selection of pledged delegates, and has relied upon big donors and PACs to finance presidential campaign.  Candidate B has aggressive pursued endorsements from elected officials, has sought out commitments from Superdelegates ahead of the selection of pledged delegates, and has relied on small donors (most notably from the internet) to finance presidential campaign.

At the eve of the Iowa caucuses, Candidate B is a viable threat to Candidate A winning the nomination.  Several lesser Candidates drop out.  After the New Hampshire primary, Candidate A's campign appears to be back on track.  More Candidates drop out until the nomination appears to be limited to three candidates on the eve of Super Tuesday.

At this point, Candidate B appears to have a sufficient financial and organizational base to compete one on one with Candidate A.  Candidate A continues with her fundraising and nomination strategy.  

On Super Tuesday, both Candidates win state contests and after the dust settles, its down to just the two candidates.

Within three weeks of Super Tuesday, it is revealed that Candidate A has had to lend presidential campaign money (and evidence suggest that A's campaign has done very little fundraising) and at the same time has lost 11 contests.  Candidate A has shrugged off this as meaningless since the contests are either caucuses, the contest are small states and that the contests are states that cannot be one by her party.

Candidate B has raised millions of dollars during this same time period.  The financial advantage over Candidate A is substantial.  The fundraising advantage over the Other Party's Candidate is beyond comprehension.  Candidate B has built campaign organizations well in advance of each contest and has been able to take advantage of every rule subtlety and every political nuance unique to every state.

Candidate A who has made statements that it will be looking for big wins in Ohio and Texas is barely competitive during this period often arriving at the 11th hour to campaign.  During this period, the Superdelegates begin to move from Candidate A to Candidate B.  Candidate B passes Candidate A in pledged delegates.  Candidate B's financial advantage grows

After what seems to be a big night for Candidate A after the Ohio and Texas contests, the media begins to report that Candidate A cannot win.  Furthermore, the media projects that Candidate A is unlikely to lead in pledged delegates, total votes and based upon the number of Superdelegates Candidate B is getting plus the ones that have switched from Candidate A to Candidate B.  

The math here, while hotly debated, is simple.  Neither candidate will lead when all the contest are over.  The contest will be won by Superdelegates

Candidate A begins to demand that contests in MI and FL should count (although everyone agreed that they would not count)in order to argue that A's campaign is viable.  Candidate A is now making the argument that Superdelegates should look to November and electability.  

Candidate B has continued to compete strongly and just recently lost a bitterly fought contest in PA (which is the first such contest in 50 days).

Candidate A is struggling finnacially although the PA win has gotten a financial shot in the arm for campaign.  A media source reports how much organizational work Candidate A is doing to lay groundwork for IN campaign.  Similar groundwork is not being reported by media for NC where Candidate B is leading substantially in polls.

Both candidates are close in pledged delegates and SuperDs, although it is clear that Candidate B is in the lead by more than 100 overall.

Now, who do you want?

A candidate with a strategy designed to win the nomination with Superdelegates, money, political muscle and the the aura of inevitability.  A campaign that dropped the fundraising ball, a campaign that has only competed for contest that it has won and that has rationalized away every loss (caucuses should not count, the rules are arcane and unfair, its a red state, and most notably Big States that will go Democratic will get me the 270 EV it takes to win.)

Or a candidate that has eschewed political muscle for organizational strength, excellent GOTV operations, and outstanding voter registration efforts. A candidate with a fundraising machine that raises more than $1,500,000 a day every day.  A candidate that has through his efforts put more states in play than anyone and has been unfraid to lose but unwilling to walk away without fighting for it.  

I used to love this sight.  Why, it wasn't just the campaign tactics, the analysis of demographics, message, debates and commercials.  I loved it because MyDD was objective.  We attacked poorly run campaigns, lousy strategy, and short sighted tactics. We were objective about our candidates shortcomings and errors.  

HRC has made the kind of errors we would have attacked.  We'd all try to get her to do a better job or to get people in primary states to help her.  Character assassination is not what we used to do.  Hate-filled bile trotted out as analysis or an emotional invective as proof of something.

Right now we ought to be looking at which candidate Clinton or Obama get us what gains in the Senate and the House.  Instead, I'm reading what looks like a right-wing blog

Tags: clinton, Elections, obama, presidential primary (all tags)

Comments

13 Comments

Re: How to get nominated

The correct term is not 'super' delegates it is 'aristocratic' delegates...please do not buy into what the call themselves.  Be weary of anybody calling themselves 'super'

by CardBoard 2008-04-28 02:11PM | 0 recs
dude, you are gonna get flammed here... ;)

by kindthoughts 2008-04-28 02:11PM | 0 recs
Re: dude, you are gonna get flammed here... ;)

Not concerned....

it doesn't change a whole lot

by kmwray 2008-04-28 02:57PM | 0 recs
You need to start making an argument

with valid premises in order for your conclusions to be valid.  This diary is not persuasive.  I do not dispute you rights to your opinions however.

by aurelius 2008-04-28 03:08PM | 0 recs
Re: How to get nominated

Sen. Obama has run a great campaign. He has brought in many new voters and independents, has raised record-shattering amounts of money and is an excellent Democrat on the issues.

However... I think the last sentence of your post is worth highlighting:

"Right now we ought to be looking at which candidate Clinton or Obama get us what gains in the Senate and the House."

I support Hillary, but more than anything, I am hoping that the winner of this horse race will be the candidate who can best take on McCain and who can best carry the swing states that we must win. No matter whether you think it is fair or not, this Rev. Wright stuff is really, really, really damaging Obama. In swing states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Colorado, New Mexico and New Jersey - this connection will be devastating to Obama and to democratic candidates down ticket (like our Mark Udall here in Colorado).

VOTE SMART. VOTE HILLARY.

by Misty Mountain Maggie 2008-04-28 02:17PM | 0 recs
yeah we been hearing that it is

and yet somehow Obama's approval ratings remain just as high

by kindthoughts 2008-04-28 02:32PM | 0 recs
He's toast

If you start the mourning process now it will help get it out of the way.  I send you my condolences.  :)

by aurelius 2008-04-28 03:06PM | 0 recs
Re: He's toast

Ha-ha, the old geezers are hyperventilating again.  If I had a nickel every time the baby boomers said this I would have made as much as Mark Penn.

by obamaforprez 2008-04-28 03:44PM | 0 recs
You think I'm a geezer?

First of all:  TR'd for being an ageist prick.  Second of all: you have no idea who I am or what I look like.  Back to thy bridge troll!

by aurelius 2008-04-28 03:48PM | 0 recs
Re: You think I'm a geezer?

You invited it with "he's toast".  Poor baby.

by Mostly 2008-04-28 03:54PM | 0 recs
I'm not your baby troll

by aurelius 2008-04-28 04:08PM | 0 recs
Re: How to get nominated
"Now, who do you want?"  Umm, Hillary.
"Right now we ought to be looking at which candidate Clinton or Obama get us what gains in the Senate and the House."  If you look at the political advertising, proposed and existant, in NC and MI, I don't think Obama will win down-ticket support.
by ChitownDenny 2008-04-28 03:03PM | 0 recs
Re: How to get nominated

Obama has made Hillary the greatest candidate in history, she will eat McCain for lunch. Thanks Barry!

by rossinatl 2008-04-28 04:25PM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads