there have been about 5 diaries saying GE matchups are irrelevent now, so early in the game.  will that logic apply here, or will everyone refute the same logic they used a few hours ago?

Your fatalistic attitude is becoming a bore.

Ever since John Edwards dropped out of the race you have been acting like a bitter ex wife who just went through a messy divorce.

Take a break from the blogs and go and get some fresh air.

If the Obama camp can constantly and loudly proclaim GE matchups....then this should be no exception. I love how they love the polls until one shows up that is bad for their saviour.

This one clearly shows Florida blowback.

I believe it is too far out to think very much of poll match-ups for the general. So much will happen that I don't think people should be swayed by polls. But I do think it is an opportunity to reexamine where Florida stands now.

One of the interesting things from the primary here was the Repub turnout. It was strong. I calculated it at 50.96% and the Dem at 42.30%.

I know many like to jump to the conclusion that Florida Dems didn't vote because they didn't think it mattered. But 42.30% is in line with other states (doesn't mean it was or wasn't suppressed). But the Repub turnout was higher than every state I've looked at so far than Arizona. I need to finish looking at them all but I'm calculating them myself from each state election site so I need some time to do that.

So maybe the questions we should be asking about Florida are

Why was the Repub turnout so high?

Was the Dem turnout suppressed from where it might have been without any pledge/campaign issues?

If the Dem turnout was suppressed, was it suppressed because people didn't think it mattered OR because people were upset at the Dems?

How much of the increased turnout was due to the tax amendment versus excitement about the presidential candidates?

I think answering or at least honestly examining those questions is important when considering any polls regarding the general.

not sitting the Florida delegates may have upset Florida voters."

Ya think?

Florida is a state that is quickly becoming out of reach for Democrats in Presidential elections.  Just look at the results in 2006.  If Jim Davis could not win the governors race in a pretty good year for Democrats, I don't see a Democrat winning here against McCain.  

Also, look at the results between 2000 and 2004.  Almost all of the population growth has been happening in heavily Republican central Florida.  I think we should stop wasting money on this state and work to protect Tim Mahoney in FL-16.  We need to focus more on states like Virginia, Nevada, and Colorado.  States that we can actually win.  

Pretty much confirms what I've thought. Obama won't win any swing states. Being only 6 pts behind can be over come but not 16. It's the same story in a lot of other states too.

I'm from Florida and I would tell you it's becoming a tough state. There are a lot of conservative southern Dems that probably won't vote for Obama or Hillary.

South Florida is becoming more Democratic but northern Florida is becoming a nightmare.

I think Obama will have better chances in Virginia, the midwest and the south west.

While I do agree that the polls don't matter, there is a current anger here in Florida about our votes not counting. i don't think it should be placed on the candidates. The DNC is the one that has to eat this. They should have penalized the candidates by taking half or one-third of the delegates.

But who thought this would happen? It is obvious that the party is not designed for a long, drawn out campaign.

Why is this a surprise?  Florida has a strong defense industry and retired and active military population, as well as many immigrants who favor McCain's immigration stance. They more than make up for the hard core right that he lost with that stance in other parts of the country.

Hillary has a chance to make up some of the national defense ground, but Obama?  No way.

u guys are sad. whatever marginal advantage clinton would have in fl is offset by her weakness in the rest of the country. remember that according to hrc and penn,  that if ur not CA or NY, then u really don't matter.

Obama trails in a state he never campaigned in.

This mistake of FL and MI could cost DEM the presidency.

It might go down history as the year that DEM has the best 2 candidates but lost out to GOP due to internal conflict.  And considering that this election happened after 8 years of GOP disastrous government, DNC should be ashamed of themselves if they would lose this GE.

I wrote off Florida awhile ago.  I think Obama will contest it but won't win it.  I think he will pick up plenty of support in the mountain west (Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico) and Mid-West (Missouri, Iowa, and Ohio) so that we won't have to hang all of our hopes on Florida again.

I am much more  concerned about the fact that Senator Clinton will start off a race against McCain trailing in Must-win Democratic States like Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.  As well as very likely pickups in Colorado and Nevada while Senator Obama would start off with huge leads in all of those states.

I mean seriously, Minnesota?  We haven't voted for a Republican since '72 and only 2 other times (Eisenhower) since the New Deal.

then we have to acknowledge rasmussen's full set of GE polls, so as not to cherry pick.  You cited the FL poll and you are correct, it isn't good for Obama.  But, what of the GE polls that rasmussen has done that show Obama beating McCain in red NV, IA, and CO, while strongly holding blue PA, NH, and MN (unlike Clinton)? If you count those three red states (plus Kerry's states) then Obama would have an electoral majority over McCain.

Hell, Kerry tied Bush in the exit polls and lost by 400,000 votes. Gore won by a couple points and lost--even though he didn't lose and ultimately got more votes and was within 61 votes when Scalia shut down the recount. Forget Florida. Until the Justice Department is run by John Edwards, and he cleans up Florida, it is impossible for the Democrats to win Florida--and it would help Democratic strategy if they would simply quit including Florida in any kind of victory calculation. The Repugs stole Florida fair and square and they aren't giving it back gladly.

I think Obama getting the nod will put California in play.  We are cooked without California.

Obama's chance is that if he wins, he'll likely win in a big way. A huge tidal wave. But the Democrat is at a stark disadvantage in the electoral college thats why Ohio and Florida are critical (one of them actually).

But if Obama can generate the wave some say he can, he'll likely win Ohio and take back some of the swing states (i.e. Missouri, Virginia).

Obama has to hold his own on foreign policy. Hope is nice, and it'll win him the primaries, but when he's faced against John McCain it's a different story. The Bush/McCain link isn't going to stick on McCain since the media has done a marvelous job painting McCain as a maverick who bucks his party. Independents will like that.