New PPP polling showing Democratic wipeout on Tuesday

Two new polls show that Democrats are about to get a major ass kicking on Tuesday night.  They show that Republican Chris Christie will defeat Jon Corzine for reelection in New Jersey and that Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman will be overwhelmingly elected as the next Congressman from New York's 23rd district.  

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/P PP_Release_NJ_1101513.pdf

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/P PP_Release_NY23_1101424.pdf

Democrats are going to come out of this election with a mere 26-24 advantage in governorships and a greatly revitalized Republican party.

I blame President Obama for this.  He has spent the last 10 months wasting his time trying to look bipartisan and in the end its gotten him not a single big accomplishment.  Healthcare reform is probably dead and so is anything else that he planned on doing.  

After what this President has done to us, I dont think we should help him a bit for reelection in 2012.  Let him sink and get him off our backs.  

Tags: 2010, Democrats, Healthcare, PPP (all tags)

Comments

15 Comments

Re: New poll showing Kent crying over spelt milk

New Jersey - lost by the party in the White House for the past 20 years.

Virginia - lost by the party in the White House for the past 32 years.

NY-23 - lost by Democrats every year since the Civil War.

If we win any of these races, then we've won.

If tradition follows, then, no pain no gain.

by Khun David 2009-11-01 07:37PM | 0 recs
What if Democrats lose the New Jersey Assembly?

What would you have to say to that?  The last time an INCUMBENT governor was defeated in New Jersey was 1993.  

by Kent 2009-11-01 07:54PM | 0 recs
Re: What if Democrats

That's a lot more recently than the other numbers, sunshine.

by lojasmo 2009-11-02 03:22AM | 0 recs
Drop Dead

by ND22 2009-11-01 08:35PM | 0 recs
Get yer PUMA on Kentster n/t

by Strummerson 2009-11-02 02:25AM | 0 recs
Re: New PPP polling showing Democratic wipeout on

I can not speak for the the NY race because I have not followed it, but the PPP poll for NJ is completely out of whack with all other polling on the subject. It states that Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 47-41. This is almost certainly outlier polling. No one else has these numbers that far a part. That would mean at least 6 points in a week from where everyone else has it. I have not seen the numbers on Maine, but they are also seemingly off. The assumption of PPP is that turnout will be low, I am assuming, and will favor the GOP, but they have early voting in Maine, and election officials there are reporting higher return ballots than in any other off year election. If things keep apace, they are looking at a very high number. Indeed, both sides have a strong get out the early vote drive for the marriage amendment. Thus, I again question this. I am not saying that this polling is bad. Just  out of whack with all other polling.

by bruh3 2009-11-02 02:45AM | 0 recs
Re: New PPP polling showing Democratic wipeout on

By the way, I don't think there has been this big a gap between Christie and Corzine in polling in over a month or two if I am remembering correctly.

by bruh3 2009-11-02 02:47AM | 0 recs
Re: New PPP polling showing Democratic wipeout on

Another follow up  by Nate Silver that reflects my issue with the PPP polling data assumptions:

"On the other hand, PPP shows conservatives outnumbering liberals 36-23, whereas those numbers have been about evenly split in exit polling of Maine's elections in 2004, 2006 and 2008. Were the liberal-conservative split to match 2006, for example, when Maine's electorate was 26 percent liberal, 26 percent conservative, and 48 percent moderate, then Question 1 would fail 46-53, according to PPP's internals.

While an electorate that favorable to liberals might be somewhat unlikely in an off-year election, there is also not a lot of evidence that conservatives have the edge in terms of organization or enthusiasm. On the contrary, the No-on-1 campaign has received contributions from 9 times as many Mainers as the Yes-on-1 side, and Yes-on-1's messaging has been haphazard, to put it generously. With that said, the gay marriage question is one on which conservatives have typically had an enthusiasm advantage, although that may be changing, with conservatives devoting more of their energies to abortion and fiscal policy."

They assume that unlike 2004 that Maine is more conservative now than then? WHo believes this?

by bruh3 2009-11-02 03:24AM | 0 recs
Grumble Grumble

bad troll!  good trolls use subtlety to catch those with waning support.  Do 20 pushups and no spoiled goats milk for you!

by KLRinLA 2009-11-02 07:32AM | 0 recs
This election is a reality check for the left

I don't think it makes sense to blame Obama for the likely losses of Corzine and Deeds. A former Goldman Sachs exec is going to have problems anywhere in a climate like this year's, especially if he's running for office---incumbent or not. And Deeds was just a hapless, inept clown.

Deeds' refusal to take tax increases off the table---especially at a time when team Obama is mulling various tax increases in health care and cap & trade---was just plain stupid, and killed his campaign. It should be a wake-up call to Democrats that this is a centrist country, and that the supposed move leftward has been severely exaggerated.

by BJJ Fighter 2009-11-02 09:43AM | 0 recs
Yeah

If only these candidates were centrists like Ronald Reagan or sensible centrist democrats like the moderate republicans of Orange County...

by Strummerson 2009-11-03 03:50AM | 0 recs
Quite right

If Deeds had simply advocated the privatization of all state services and complained about welfare queens he'd have walked to an easy victory.

by JJE 2009-11-03 03:54AM | 0 recs
Re: New PPP polling showing Democratic wipeout

Other polling has NJ in a dead heat.  That's the only race which means anything.  A win in NY 23 would be great, but that's always been a long shot.  More wingnuts will further marginalize the GOP.

And if the economy is in fact improving, his reelection in 2012 is all but inevitable.

But why are Hillary supporters still sulking about 2008?  She's having the time of her life.

by Drummond 2009-11-02 11:07PM | 0 recs
Re: The world ends today!

Unless it ends later.

by QTG 2009-11-03 03:27AM | 0 recs
Re: The world ends today!

...or later.

by Strummerson 2009-11-03 03:51AM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads