And it's a tie -- again!

A little break from the sad news from Pakistan today.

A new Strategic Vision poll for the Iowa Caucus rebuts the "Hillary might be pulling away" narrative the media has been pushing the past few days due to the outlier Christmas ARG poll.  It shows Obama with 30%, Clinton with 29%, and Edwards with 28%.  In other words, it's a three-way tie.

It's beginning to look more and more like this thing will go down to the wire.  I think I'm going to have to find someone to babysit my kids on the 3rd so I can follow the returns since I suspect it's going to be a late night even here in California.

As an Edwards supporter, I'm heartened to see that despite things remaining tied, Edwards support keeps creeping up.  I'm betting that he pops that 30% ceiling very, very soon.

Yikes, what a nail-biter.

Tags: Iowa caucus, John Edwards, polls, Strategic Vision (all tags)

Comments

22 Comments

Re: And it's a tie -- again!

The good thing is there really aren't "returns."  We should know by 10:30 PM Eastern who "won" the Caucuses.

by Vox Populi 2007-12-27 02:03PM | 0 recs
well, that does surprise me

I was assuming that Hillary would lead all of the Iowa polls in the field this week, because her supporters are less likely to travel for the holidays.

Just got off a conference call for Edwards precinct captains. We are going to be very prepared on January 3!

by desmoinesdem 2007-12-27 02:04PM | 0 recs
Des:All Clinton supporters in wheelchairs?.

"I was assuming that Hillary would lead all of the Iowa polls in the field this week, because her supporters are less likely to travel for the holidays."

You are too funny. Why would Clinton's supporters be less likely to travel than say Edward's. Do you think they are all legless or can't afford gas. And I'm sure all sides are going to be prepared on January 3.  

by ottovbvs 2007-12-27 02:13PM | 0 recs
Mark Blumenthal knows more

about polling than either of us. Let's look at what he has to say:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/polling_on _the_dark_side_of_th.php

There are lots of good charts in that post, but here's one key paragraph:

So pollsters fielding surveys this week are going to have a harder time finding younger, better educated respondents. Why is that important? Because in the Democratic race, at least, there are huge differences in vote preference by age and education: In virtually every survey, including those in Iowa and New Hampshire, Barack Obama does best among younger, better educated voters while Hillary Clinton's base of support is older and less well educated. Consider the data from the Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire survey conducted last week: Obama wins the support of 47% of voters age 18 to 34, but only 22% of those over 65; 40% of those with graduate degrees but only 25% of those without a college degree.

by desmoinesdem 2007-12-27 02:17PM | 0 recs
his kids are also in town

do you think there are no college students who live in IA and go to college elsewhere?  I'd say it is probably a wash with Obama's young supporters.  Some  left the state and some came home to the state. Some just shifted from one part of the state to another.

by MollieBradford 2007-12-27 02:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Mark Blumenthal knows more

The ARG polls in Iowa have reputation to be somewhat inaccurate regarding Clinton. and the current data does suggest that it's an outlier.

But we'll see jan 3. which pollster got it right.

by Ernst 2007-12-28 03:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Des:All Clinton supporters in wheelchairs?.

 It has nothing to do with what you are talking about, and probably has to do with age. Demographics of her supporters tends to skew older. Older people tend to travel less than younger people. That would be my guess about the point. Of course, you could always ask.

by bruh21 2007-12-27 02:17PM | 0 recs
Re: And it's a tie -- again!

Obama appears to have peaked too soon, as I thought.  Hmm.  Not good.

Better start running some ads featuring Oprah and Michelle.

by Namtrix 2007-12-27 02:12PM | 0 recs
Re: And it's a tie -- again!

Clinton has been ahead and is definitely the front runner campaign. She has to win Iowa or her "inevitable" themed campaign would be destroyed.

Edwards is starting to surge and it would be a magnificent win for him, going against all the negative media attention and the millions in financial disadvantage he has faced, as well as star power of the Obama and Hillary campaigns.

These poll results indicate this is anyone's win now in Iowa, especially after second choices are factored in, which are going to favor Edwards.

by Progressive America 2007-12-27 02:50PM | 0 recs
this is just one poll

we need a few more before we can really tell what the trends are.  It looks like the narrative is about the same... they are tied.

by MollieBradford 2007-12-27 02:57PM | 0 recs
Re: this is just one poll

Well Hillary was the inevitable campaign with millions in fundraising. Obama was the star who brought in Oprah and millions of fundraising.

Shouldn't they be way ahead? What's going on? Why aren't the people going a long with this?

by Progressive America 2007-12-27 03:04PM | 0 recs
Re: this is just one poll

Edwards has been running for President in Iowa since 2003.  Shouldn't he be way ahead?

by Namtrix 2007-12-27 03:11PM | 0 recs
Re: this is just one poll

He's faced the $100,000,000 coming from Obama and Clinton and the media has ignored him. Shouldn't he be out of this race?

Why's he polling at 18% in NH and 15-17% nationally?

by Progressive America 2007-12-27 03:18PM | 0 recs
Re: this is just one poll

It doesn't. Once past a certain saturation point it simply stops giving you a bigger share of the vote.

The guys from freakonomics did some comparisons and found that it's mostly based on the person itself. As long as you're not strapped for cash, you should be able to compete.

And Edwards isn't as rich as the other two frontrunners, but he's got enough to get his message out there. The small candidates are suffering from their lack of money.

by Ernst 2007-12-28 04:03AM | 0 recs
Re: And it's a tie -- again!

Whatever happens to the ARG poll. Numbers sure can be manipulated.

by Jr1886 2007-12-27 03:09PM | 0 recs
Re: And it's a tie -- again!

Most knew the last poll was an anomaly- even Hillary knew, she did not tout it or even put it up on Hillaryhub, it's been a tie for months and will most likely go down to the wire- Edwards could very well win- but I'm hopeful Hillary can also come through- she has some advantages as well- we'll see- I'm sure Obama willl be doing his best trying to get buses in from the other states- shameful- I will be very disappointed in Iowa if they put Obama, that inexperienced fraud, in first place.

by reasonwarrior 2007-12-27 03:24PM | 0 recs
Re: And it's a tie -- again!

But my impression has been that Edwards and Clinton are splitting the rural vote.  Is that wrong?

by katerina 2007-12-27 03:29PM | 0 recs
Re: And it's a tie -- again!

It's usually been the Clintons MO to target the rural vote. So I wouldn't be surprised if she ran strong there.

by Ernst 2007-12-28 03:54AM | 0 recs
Re: And it's a tie -- again!

Biggest polling news of the night I think is that Edwards is at 20% (up from 14) among likely voters in the NH primary in the LA Times poll. He's never been that high before, just as CNN last week had him at 18% (up from 10).

In 04, Kerry's gain in NH against Dean and Clark began not after Iowa but the week before. We're possibly seeing the beginning of a curve that will accelerate upwards for Edwards if he punches through  in Iowa.

by desmoulins 2007-12-27 08:32PM | 0 recs
Re: And it's a tie -- again!

That would make this  poll certainly good news for Edwards. New hampshire' never been his strong suit. A good showing there would really help him.

by Ernst 2007-12-28 04:12AM | 0 recs
Re: And it's a tie -- again!

I tend to agree.  I was noticing the slope of the pollster.com trend line in NH changing several weeks ago -- before it really had started displaying a significant trend up in Iowa.  I have thought it significant that both times recently when all the other major candidates were beginning significant campaign tours of Iowa, JE has sprinted off to NH to campaign before starting his tours in Iowa.  I've also noticed a great deal more talk about him on the  Blue New Hampshire blog of late, when before he was largely ignored.  Perhaps it's just wishful thinking, but I think he's determined to leverage an Iowa win into a win in NH if it's humanely possible for him as a Southerner to do so.

by katerina 2007-12-28 08:03AM | 0 recs
Re: And it's a tie -- again!

Strategic Vision has always been more Hillary-averse and more Obama-friendly.  Earlier on when every poll showed Clinton in the mid-20s at the very least SV had her at 15% and 16% support three times in a row, which was a ridiculous finding, not at all aligned with reality of any other poll.   So, if THEY show Clinton only trailing by 1% now (from 7%, then 8%, then 3%) it shows tremendous upwards movement for Clinton within just 2 weeks in their polling universe.  She made up a full 7% in just 14 days, according to these findings, which, as I stated above due to SV's tendency to undervalue Clinton's support would suggest that she is actually ahead by a few more points in reality.

....which is what we are seeing from the other poll that came out simultaneously.   The LA Times Bloomberg polls shows this for LV's:

Clinton 31%
Edwards 25%
Obama 22%

Not a huge lead for Clinton over Edwards, but a decent one, nonetheless.  I would not call the results of that poll necessarily an exact tie.  I like where the trends are headed:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus -208.html

by georgep 2007-12-27 11:13PM | 0 recs

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