Why "yes we can" means we can
by jumpybovine, Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 03:10:43 PM EST
Last night has provoked a lot of doom, gloom, and dark theories that Obama will be overwhelmed by the Clinton machine as the contest moves inexorably toward the convention. I don't think so. Just two weeks ago he was trailing by a fairly large margin across the country. Now they are in a dead heat. With another week or two he might have won a couple more states last night, including CA, where early voting before his surge probably hurt him by at least a few points. Others point to his advantage as the contest now focuses on a few states at a time, more caucuses, states where Obama has demographic and organizational advantages.
The Obama campaign hasn't been perfect, but they've been consistently awfully good. That means he will do better with Latinos. (Still, Barack slipped up by talking about black and white children in failing schools last night. In Chicago, where he spoke, 40% of the kids in public schools are Latinos! That's the kind of slip that needs to be attended to, because it represents so much more.)
There are a whole lot of delegate counts out there, none certain, but all the counts show them very close. Solid wins for Barack in the next primaries will probably push him into a lead. But it does not look like either of them can swamp the other campaign. he can't knock her out. Many suggest it will get very ugly at the convention, but no matter how the FL and MI questions are resolved, the super-delegates will be under enormous
pressure to support the candidate most likely to beat McCain. I expect that the polls will continue to show that's Obama because of his expansive appeal, and because he will be thoroughly tested by then.
The "yes we can" spirit of this campaign has already scaled mountains. That is not hype. It's true. For the last two presidential elections Dems have utterly failed to change the terms of the fight and have played defense only. As Obama said last night, "WE are what we've been waiting for," a campaign that is reframing the debate and capable of playing offense. It takes time to turn a creaky ship like the Dems around, but it is happening, and there's no reason to think it can't keep it up unless WE give up.
Tags: Convention, next primaries, obama, spirit, strategy, Super Delegates, vision, winner, Yes We Can (all tags)









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