Economist Poll: Kerry up 7, Bush App. @ 39%
by Jonathan Singer, Thu Aug 19, 2004 at 03:37:23 PM EDT
This week's Economist/You Gov poll has just come out and it contains a lot of good news for John Kerry. The poll was conducted August 16-18, with 1799 respondents ("Registered to vote": 1549, "Will definitely vote": 1417), and the MoE is +/- 2%.
Total; Def to vote (Last week)
George Bush 41% (43); 42% (45)
John Kerry 48% (48); 51% (49)
Ralph Nader 2% (1); 1% (1)
Someone else 2% 1%
Would not vote 1% 0%
Don't know 6% 4%
As of now, what do you think you are most likely to end up doing on November 2? (not allowing 'don't know')
(Total, Def to vote)
George W Bush 43% 44%
John F Kerry 51% 53%
Ralph Nader 2% 1%
Someone else 3% 2%
Not vote at all 2% 0%
In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?
(Total, Def to vote)
Satisfied 35% 38%
Dissatisfied 61% 60%
Don't know 4% 2%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way President George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
(Total, Def to vote)
Approve 39% 41%
Disapprove 55% 56%
Don't know 6% 3%
One of the most interesting things that comes out of this poll is that while Kerry's numbers have remained the same or slightly nudged up, Bush's are significantly down from last week. For instance, notice his overall approval rating at 39%!!!!!
I believe this drop for Bush comes from a number of issues, not the least of which the horrible ads coming from his supporters attacking John Kerry's war record. Most Americans will tolerate negative ads, but they abhore what they see as mean-spirited ads. As a result, it looks like this vicious attack as has backfired horribly for the campaign.
Additionally, I think another great part of this poll is that Kerry is actually doing better with "Likely" voters than "Registered" voters, which is rarely the case for a Democrat. I guess the only thing I can say is that "things are turning a corner" in this campaign!
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