1. Obama has a better ground organization than McCain. It will have a force multiplier effect and will usher in record voting from AA's and Latinos. McCain has been spending all his money on an air war while Obama has been splitting his between the air and building the ground organization. McCain is counting on the RNC to do the ground organization for him, but they lag terribly in comparison to Obama who has been building his ground operation for a year.

2. McCain agreed to matching funds. Obama is going to have more money than McCain coming down the stretch. The RNC will pick up some of the slack but there will be a discontinuity between messages.

3. We have very good Senate candidates in pivotal States including Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico. Our candidates have a ton of cash and the DSCC is absolutely flush with funds. The RSCC is cash strapped (and have already given up on New Mexico and to a lesser extent Virginia). And it isn't only a cash advantage it is the advantage of having Obama campaigning with these candidates. The GOP has no answer to Obama and Warner on the trail in Virginia. Warner is tremendously popular and his presence down ballot is really a huge, huge advantage.

4. Demographics. Latinos are going to decide the election in Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. The GOP has been shitting all over Latinos for the last 5 years. Obama is going to be the beneficiary of that electoral shortsightedness on the part of the GOP. Obama is going to win Latinos by a record margin.

5. McCain is too old to be President. Palin is too inexperienced to be second in command. When Obama and McCain are on the stage together for the debates there is going to be a stark contrast in the images they present. Both are opting to be change candidates, but McCain won't be able to claim that mantle once people see the two standing side by side. Regardless of what they say at the debates, Obama is coming away as the change candidate. The hurdle Obama has to leap is the one where the electorate becomes comfortable with him. The same thing happened in 1980 when the country was really in the shitter, Reagan pulled away very, very late.

6. The Palin pick really puts Florida in play. McCain was probably going to do better than previous GOP candidates with Florida's Jewish population, but that is over since Palin alienates Jewish voters with her over the top fundamentalism. Its going to hurt McCain in the Philadelphia suburbs too. Plus, Joe Biden is going to help both in Florida where he is popular with the older set.

7. Obama is not going to lose any of the Kerry States. We are at McCain's high water mark right now and it is essentially tied. It was always going to be that way since the GOP had their convention second and since they have no qualms about lying. Even now at McCain's apex, Iowa and New Mexico look to be pretty much Obama locks. That puts Obama one - yes one - State away from winning. Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Florida or Ohio. McCain has to win them all - he has to draw to an inside straight. Not going to happen.

away from being a political afterthought and punchline for a decade. If she's a philanderer - she's done in GOP politics for good.

Philadelphia International Airport is on the extreme southern edge of the city, really not far from the Delaware State line. New Castle airport is like maybe 15 minutes away, straight down 95. I bet you it is no more than 10 miles away.

Not many reasons why a business person wouldn't fly out of Philadelphia. The only one I can think of is privacy - if you fly into New Castle, no one is going to know. The same can't be said about flying into/out of Philly.

- Wesley Snipes (good actor, bad book keeper)

- Michael Jackson (freak)

- Michael Vick (dog hating bastard)

- NFL Wide Receivers in general (ego maniacs, habitual law breakers)

Obama should go no where near this. If the Governor removes the schmuck from office - so be it. Obama has no business getting involved - Michigan has rules to handle things like this and the rules will be followed.

Of course Obama is going to be asked what he thinks about the whole thing. It would be a good opportunity for Obama to state that he is not the arbiter in all things regarding race in the United States. He is a guy running for President, who just so happens to be black - thats it. I think that sentiment would be accepted across the entire electorate - white and non-white.

libertarians across the fruited plains. The live and let live types.  

Deal with it.

Obama can give a speech, make no doubt about that. Compare that to McCain who is even money right now to make a major flub in his acceptance speech. McCain simply is horrible at reading off the teleprompter, and he is going to have to read off one for a solid 45-minutes at the GOP convention. They will have to shut McCain down for a

And the conventions will be the real time for comparison between the candidates images. Obama is going to win that battle going away.

McCain needs someone younger who is a social conservative. I think it is going to be Sanford because he has a bunch of experience and he is well like by hard core social conservatives. You know Team McCain relishes the thought of rolling Sanford out by saying that he has more experience than Obama.

Pawlenty might help McCain in Minnesota which should be included in the calculus, but he is Catholic and not as big a wacko as Sanford.

McCain probably thinks he really needs to fire up his base so that they do the heavy GOTV lifting in November. Picking a social moderate is going to dampen GOP energy. And picking a woman would be a pure Hail Mary that is just as likely to piss off hard core Fundies who think that women shouldn't work at all.

I really think it is going to be Sanford.

But the thing I really like is Obama's competitiveness in NC, VA and TX. Putting McCain on defense in these State's will burn through his limited matched funding.

And I'm really optimistic about Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada.

Just a matter of time before you get banned

In the past, this would have been akin to unilateral disarmament. It would have been political suicide.

But now, this is like trading in a handgun for a rocket launcher. Millions of small donations funding political campaigns. Millions of voices heard through their donations. It's the way it should be, and the credit is not just Obama's. Yes Obama gets credit for deciding to play the game the right way. But credit also goes to everyone out there that - those making small donations - allowing Obama to make the right call.

It isn't just Obama who is changing Washington, it is everyone who has decided they have had enough with lobbyists and decided to become more invested in their and their children's futures. Listen to Obama - he often says it isn't about him it is about us. This is not false humility in Obama - I believe that this is the truth as he sees it.

And the really cool part about it is how it truly is trading in a handgun for a rocket launcher. To wit, McCain surrounded by his cadre of lobbyists is going to raise half of what Obama is going to raise.  It isn't even going to be close.

You need to embrace that reality.