Senate 06 : Candidate Fundraising and Analysis

by jj32, Sat Jul 16, 2005 at 08:30:15 PM EDT

So the second quarter numbers are coming out and most look good for Democrats. I think it as been mentioned that the DSCC is outraising the NRSC. Chuck Schumer is a prolific fundraiser, and hopefully, he can push Pederson(AZ), McCaskill(MO), and Brown(OH) into the Senate race(they seem right on the edge of going in, I believe). As far as Liddy Dole, um, please keep doing what you are doing. :) I think some of this has been frontpaged(like Hilary's good numbers) , but I thought I would post them all in one place(at least the ones I have) and give an analysis

In no particular order(COH- cash on hand, FR- fundraising, (I)-incumbent):

New York

In a Senate race that could have implications for the 2008 presidential contest, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton raised more than $6 million between April and June.

Campaign reports filed by Senate candidates Friday with the Federal Election Commission showed the former first lady, a New York Democrat, had $12.6 million cash on hand at the end of last month, even though she has no clear opponent yet.

Analysis: Hilary's campaign director says she expects a well funded opponent(I'm guessing it will be Ed Cox). Personally, I'm 100% behind the "Stop Hilary Now" campaign that the NY GOP Chairman is running. If Republicans want to throw money at a safe race, then who am I to stop them?

Pennsylvania

Santorum(R)(I): $3.6 million in 2nd Q, $5.7 million COH
Casey(D): 1.9 mil in 2nd Q, 1.6 mil COH

Pennacchio(D) 20k on hand

Analysis: Casey a bit behind here but still a respectable total as the article notes. Pennacchio doesnt look good at all. I think we need to start a bet: Which group is Santorum going to insult next?? He's already done liberals, gays, working moms, women with college educations, and victims of priest abuse. Casey's has a double digit lead in the polls. Yeah, doesnt mean much for Nov 06, but still, he's in a good position. It was reported, at OurSenate, recently that the AFL-CIO wont endorse Santorum b/c he voted for CAFTA. Casey, I believe, is against CAFTA. FYI, the AFL-CIO supported Arlen Specter last year, who voted against CAFTA.

Florida

Bill Nelson(D)(I): 2.2 million in 2nd Q, 5 million COH

Katherine Harris(R): 400k in 2nd Q, 406,808 COH

Analysis: The enthusiasm for Katherine Harris' candidancy on the GOP has been discussed. If she is the nominee, Nelson looks to be in good shape.

Nebraska

Ben Nelson(D)(I): 867k 2nd Q, 2.3 million COH

Don Stenberg(R): 23k 2nd Q(entered race in late April)

Analysis: Nelson's prospects have improved greatly since Election Day 04. He is conservative, which is appropriate for NE. He seems to be well liked there, as a former Governor and Senator.

Source for NY, PA, FL, and NE

Maryland

Cardin(D): 1 million 2nd Q(entered race in late April)
Mfume(D): 150k 2nd Q

Steele(R): no fundraising yet

Analysis: I've said this before. I'm not from MD, but I cant for the life of me, what is appealing about Michael Steele. From the GOP viewpoint, I guess cuz he is black and they figure they can peel off black votes. I think I've even heard some Republicans refer to him as "Their Barack Obama." Yeah, right. No fundraising for Steele, but the NRSC said he would get at least 15 million and Karl Rove is coming to the state to raise for him. I'm sure Rove's visit will play real well in deep blue Maryland. Mfume's FR sucks. The scandal at the NAACP really hurt. If not for that, I think he would make a great candidate. It would be hard for him to run on a "clean up the corruption" platform, which is looking like a good platform for 2006. Cardin might not be the most exciting candidate, but his record is pretty solid from what I can tell.

Source for MD

Minnesota

Klobuchar(D): 650k 2nd Q, 1.1 mil COH

Wetterling(D): 420K 2nd Q, 375K COH

Kennedy(R): 750K 2nd Q, 965,648k COH

Analysis: Again, I'm not from MN, but apparently, Kennedy is supposed to be the best thing since sliced bread and I just dont see it. Klobuchar's FR has been impressive. She outraised Kennedy in the 1st quarter and she didnt even officially declare until April I believe! The seat didnt open up until Dayton's annoucement in January. Wetterling's FR I think is a sign she should have run for MN 06 instead. I think either one can beat Kennedy though.

MN sources here, here, and here

Rhode Island

Whitehouse(D): 775k 2nd Q, 1 mil COH

Brown(D): not reported yet, 500k in 1st quarter

Chafee(R)(I): 400k 2nd Q, 1 mil COH

Analysis: Chafee's fundraising hasnt been good. Whitehouse has already equaled him in COH. And he has been polling in the low 40s, not good for a incumbent with a popular last name. I think he supports private accounts too, although I could be wrong. Also, Chafee doesnt strike me as a aggressive guy, which wont help him on the campaign trail. He recently told the Pawtucket Times that people on the street nag him about Bolton. He also said that issue is about documents and that he says that the White House should just give the Dems the documents they want. See what I mean about not being aggressive?

RI source here and here

Couldnt find anything on the MT race, although apparently Pearl Jam will be doing a benefit concert for Tester. Thoughts??

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Montana

I don't have fundraising stats yet, but I think you'll find that State Auditor John Morrison has a better chance of winning the nomination and defeating Conrad Burns than does Jon Tester.

by Tim Saler 2005-07-16 07:02PM | 0 recs

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Re: Montana

First quarter fundraising stats favor Morrison. I think, though, that you'll find many of us who have been working on the ground in Montana disagree with your assessment.

by Left in the West 2005-07-17 02:26PM | 0 recs

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Other races?

First, I think that Pearl Jam thing will take care of Tester just fine and he'll take care of it all quite easily there (he gets to register a bunch of kids/younger people at this event as well) but we know kids don't vote :/ (well I did).

But there are some other declared races, such as Hutchinson/Radnofsky. Any word on the numbers here in Texas? Or any other race where there are declared candidates, even if they are hopeless?

by Trowaman 2005-07-17 12:07AM | 0 recs

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Re: Other races?

Radnofsky has around half a million to Hutchison's several million dollars ($7.2 million as of May)...

by Ramo 2005-07-17 06:49AM | 0 recs

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Chinese Spammer. BAN!

by MNPundit 2005-07-17 07:58AM | 0 recs

4a2fab88-ed3b-47a4-8f14-3ec8a24504ac_normal

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Re: Chinese Spammer. BAN!

Yep, and erased. I've found a couple of them in the archives as well. They go through the hassle to do it all by hand too, one guy had 500 posts done, zapped out with a single button click.

by Jerome Armstrong 2005-07-17 08:29AM | 0 recs

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Tennessee

Any news on the Tennessee race with Ford? I know he released that TV Ad pushing for us to bring the troops home which, I thought, was an aggressive and smart move. Dont count him out!

by AC4508 2005-07-17 08:51AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tennessee

Ford is a great candidate, and I have no clue why everyone is saying he has no chance. Ford can raise big money and is very charismatic. It will be an up hill climb, but he definatly has a chance.

by jkfp2004 2005-07-17 09:14AM | 0 recs

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Re: Tennessee

His position on the Kelo decision is going to be somewhat harmful to his candidacy. Ed Bryant is doing a lot better than Van Hilleary in the polls for the GOP nomination, last I heard.

Ford is not very likely to win this race if 2006 is even a remotely good year for Republicans. There's just a significant number of people, unfortunately, who just aren't going to vote for a black Democrat in Tennessee.

by Tim Saler 2005-07-17 09:32AM | 0 recs

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Right now

It is not looking like a good year for Republicans. I think there is a slight wind behind the backs of the Dems for next year. But I think even with that, it will be tough for Ford.

by jj32 2005-07-17 01:08PM | 0 recs

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Re: Right now

I guess if Bredesen smashes his opponent in 2006, whoever it is, then Ford could get a small windfall from that. Otherwise I don't really think he's got a heck of a chance, which is unfortunate because he really didn't have any better time to make a move for a more prominent position in national politics.

by Tim Saler 2005-07-17 02:29PM | 0 recs

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Here are the GOP numbers

http://www.chattanoogan.com/articles/article_69546.asp

Corker is the moderate, and as you can see, it will be a rough primary. I think Ford has a long road to travel but I certainly dont count him out.

by jj32 2005-07-17 01:07PM | 0 recs

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Re: Here are the GOP numbers

I guess if the GOP primary is extremely destructive and results in a more moderate candidate getting the nomination, then theoretically there could be an insurgent third-party candidacy from the right, like how conservative supporters of US Rep. Pat Toomey got behind, to some degree, Constitution Party candidate Jim Clymer in the 2004 US Senate race here in Pennsylvania.

In that case, Ford could squeak out a victory with under 50% of the popular vote. But, it's still not likely.

by Tim Saler 2005-07-17 02:30PM | 0 recs

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Re: Tennessee

Ford(D): $772,000 (1stQ), $1.4 million (CoH)

Kurita(D): $257,000 (1stQ)

Corker(R): $613,000 (1stQ), $2.4 million (CoH)

Bryant(R): $415,000 (1stQ)

Hilleary(R): $400,000 (1stQ)

http://epaper.ardemgaz.com/WebChannel/ShowStory.asp?Path=ChatTFPress/2005/07/06&ID=Ar00104

Ford's doing respectably. It looks like he'll be outspent, though (the Dem total is significantly smaller than the GOP total).

by Ramo 2005-07-18 03:44AM | 0 recs

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Maryland, Minnesota, Rhode Island

Like you, I don't see what's so hot about Steele or Kennedy.

Rhode Island - Chafee is doing a lot worse than some here acknowledge. He is polling no higher than 44% (and THAT's against the underdog in the Dem primary, Matt Brown) and in the last poll was at 41% against Whitehouse (who got 36%). In other words, Whitehouse is already within 5 points despite a name recognition disadvantage...and Chafee can't even break 45% against anyone.

Chafee doesn't seem very interested. I think he never really wanted to be a Senator. So why does he run? The guy has no guts (case in point: his Bolton vote despite acknowledging that 80% of Rhode Island disagrees).

by raginillinoian 2005-07-18 07:43AM | 0 recs