Superdelegates: Pick a Winner

Let's assume Hillary wins tomorrow in Pennsylvania. Regardless of her margin of victory, superdelegates are still tasked with picking the Democratic nominee. A post by Jeralyn on TalkLeft argues convincingly that Obama would face almost insurmountable odds against McCain. Jeralyn uses William Arnone's analysis of the electoral landscape. Jeralyn says:

First, we need to figure out which of the 20 states are vulnerable to McCain and decide whether Hillary or Obama has a better chance of carrying them. Mr. Arnone says those states are: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon and Wisconsin, which have a total of 68 electoral votes.

As I've written before, Kerry won Pennsylvania by only 2% in 2004. Obama's inability to carry large states besides his home state does not bode well for his candidacy.

Continue reading here

Tags: 2008, clinton, dean, Denver, DNC, Florida, Michigan, obama, Pelosi, Pennsylvania (all tags)

Comments

29 Comments

Oh noes

Let's all be afraid

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by Student Guy 2008-04-21 08:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Oh noes

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by Student Guy 2008-04-21 09:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates: Pick a Winner

Excellent diary, JFK. And so true. The SDs have their own asses to cover as well. And if they vote for a loser in the GE, they will lose face (and votes). Obama cannot win the GE. That's been proven.

by aroundtheblock 2008-04-21 08:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates: Pick a Winner

How can he not win the general? So far, the only real argument I've seen is that Hillary won the primaries in most of these swing states, but that's a huge leap of faith for me. It's basically assuming a large chunk of the people who voted for Hillary won't vote for Obama in the general if he's the nominee. Which, given as evidence, I don't know, just about every primary in history, is demonstrably false.

by Jaffee 2008-04-21 09:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates: Pick a Winner

Not to mention the fact that Obama brings in a massive influx of on-fire new voters willing to campaign, fundraise, and yes, vote for him.

by rhetoricus 2008-04-21 09:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates: Pick a Winner

You know, you really undermine your own argument when you say that some future scenario has been "proven."

by rfahey22 2008-04-21 09:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates: Pick a Winner

"Obama cannot win the GE. That's been proven."

Gitcher GOP talking points above!

Enthusiasm for Obama has brought in over 350K new Democratic voters in PA alone. His campaign is flush with cash, and he's raising more every day. Hillary is broke, in debt, and stiffing working class small businesses. I'd call that "soft support" indeed.

The small number of "Democrats" stupid enough to cast a vote for McCain instead of Obama will be more than made up for by millions of new young voters, and and by black Democrats who were never inspired enough by anyone to vote before.

Your politics is still stuck in the '90s. As is your candidate. Which is both of your problem. It's a different world. And it doesn't belong to the past.

by rhetoricus 2008-04-21 09:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates: Pick a Winner

It's been proven?  Oh crap, did I fall asleep and miss the GE?

by interestedbystander 2008-04-22 01:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates: Pick a Winner

I can tell you after seeing Obama 's response to that ad I am becoming more skeptical about casting my vote for him if he is the nominee.

by lori 2008-04-21 08:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates: Pick a Winner

Yes, by all means vote for McCain.

Enjoy the torture, loss of habeas, loss of Roe v. Wade, destruction of the middle class, collapse of the dollar, and war with Iran.

We'll remember who to thank.

by rhetoricus 2008-04-21 09:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates: Pick a Winner

Lori, I love ya to death, but if you're giving your candidate a pass for all the junk she's thrown, I gotta call shenanigans on it. I'd be willing to give her more of a pass on the back and forth if Clinton supporters didn't go "ZOMG OBAMA'S BEING MEAN!!!"

by ragekage 2008-04-21 09:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates: Pick a Winner

wow...

I am red all over lol . The feeling is mutual.

However I am sure you know by now the views I hold on national security , thats one of the reasons I found it hard to be excited about Obama. I have a favorable opinion of him but on some very important issues we are just not on the same wave length.

by lori 2008-04-21 09:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates: Pick a Winner

Well, heck, I think the only reason Clinton's still around is because she's got supporters like you. Honestly; you, sricki, VAAlex, etc. Otherwise she'd have been dead in the water long ago.

So Obama, I think, ignores your opinions at his own peril if he gets the nomination. And I hope Clinton appreciates your support as much as she should.

by ragekage 2008-04-21 09:16PM | 0 recs
Yeah for naming

logical people.  Going to give them some mojo.  Also I am in a snarky mood tonight due to practicing a physical exam.

by Student Guy 2008-04-21 09:18PM | 0 recs
Is that like

playing doctor?

by GFORD 2008-04-21 11:09PM | 0 recs
It is being a doctor

(well at least a medical student) and let me say that some parts of the physical exam are kind of awkward...

by Student Guy 2008-04-22 10:15AM | 0 recs
For the patient too

I imagine.

by GFORD 2008-04-22 11:19AM | 0 recs
Middle aged women

get a little embarrassed when a young guy like me is doing a PAP smear for the first time...

by Student Guy 2008-04-22 02:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates: Pick a Winner

I think the only reason Clinton is still around is that people look at her and see their original expectations of her, not the reality of where she is now.

by mady 2008-04-21 10:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates: Pick a Winner

Ahh.. a diary from the genius who penned such classics as "Barack Obama is the George Wallace of the Left" and "Jeremiah Wright Was a Muslim: Why That Matters."

Go back to your hole, you fanatic.

by thatpurplestuff 2008-04-21 09:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates: Pick a Winner

Except he polls better than the other two in WI, MI, OR, NH, and MN... which kinda makes your theory bunk. Sorry, dude, it was nice while it lasted though, eh?

by ragekage 2008-04-21 09:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Superdelegates: Pick a Winner

Not to mention that the polls don't capture the youth vote (who tend to have cell phones and not land lines), who lean overwhelmingly Obama.

by rhetoricus 2008-04-21 09:14PM | 0 recs
A question

do you think Obama would accept a VP position?  Or would he, as the article says, "stand outside the tent?"

by 4justice 2008-04-21 09:05PM | 0 recs
Depends on how it was offered

If they offered it to him as a condition of concession if he still led in pledged delegates, no way.

If Hillary won the pledged delegate vote, or the popular vote, and the SuperD's gave it to her hands down, THEN she asked him, anything's possible.

He may feel that he would not want to be associated with a Blue Dog administration--he'd get all the blame but have no power, really, to influence it.

Thus he wouldn't stand outside the tent, but remain a Senator and bide his time.

by rhetoricus 2008-04-21 09:18PM | 0 recs
Re: A question

Would Hillary accept the VP?

After all, Obama is in front, and the guy in front usual picks the VP, not the other way around?

by WashStateBlue 2008-04-21 09:20PM | 0 recs
I asked this question

not yours.

by 4justice 2008-04-21 09:34PM | 0 recs
Re: I asked this question

OK if we are in bizarro world ...No he won't - it is inconceivable he would accept a VP slot.  He would however campaign extremely hard for individual candidates in the GE.

by interestedbystander 2008-04-22 01:45AM | 0 recs
This thread suffers from faulty logic

If a presidental candidate can't win a state they lost in the primary I guess John McCain can't win the south.

But we can heal the logic...

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by Student Guy 2008-04-21 09:07PM | 0 recs
The super delegates are not a

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(btw that is supposed to be a robot army).

by Student Guy 2008-04-21 09:31PM | 0 recs

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