It's Either President Clinton or It's President McCain
by JFK464, Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 09:09:39 AM EDT
The Obama campaign loves to talk about the math of this race -- the math as it stands now, prior to 10 more states voting and the selective disenfranchisement of Michigan and Florida. There is a math however which all Democrats need to consider. It's the Electoral College reality.
If we are honest about this primary election and agree that Hillary won Michigan and Florida, the race is now a draw.
As Obama supporter and owner of Daily Kos, Markos Moulitsas Zúniga, wrote regarding Michigan and Florida:
"Clinton was the only top-tier candidate to refuse the ultimate Iowa and New Hampshire pander by removing her name from the Michigan ballot. That makes her essentially the de facto winner since Edwards and Obama, caving to the cry babies in Iowa and New Hampshire, took their name off Michigan's ballot. Sure, the DNC has stripped Michigan of its delegates, but that won't last through the convention. The last thing Democrats can afford is to alienate swing states like Michigan and Florida by refusing to seat their delegates. So while Obama and Edwards kneecap their chances of winning, Clinton is single-mindedly focused on the goal."
Given that reality, the question the superdelegates need to ask themselves is, Who can win the general election? I'll make this as simple as possible: Obama cannot win.
Regardless of how well Obama did in some deep-red state Democratic caucuses, the truth is that the Wright fiasco, McCain's appeal to independents and Hispanics, the fact that nearly 1 in 3 Hillary voters may defect to McCain, and the
well-oiled Republican attack machine will leave Obama, at best, where John Kerry was in August 2004, that is fighting desperately to reach 270.
Here's the best case scenario for Obama: He wins all the states John Kerry won
except New Hampshire. It's McCain 290, Obama 248.
Here's a list of states Hillary would likely win: Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, and Pennsylvania. It's Hillary
315, McCain 223. With Obama on the ticket, McCain is likely to carry most of these states. Kerry won Pennsylvania by less than 2% in 2004 and only 12 out of 67 counties. Giving Obama Iowa, it's McCain 300, Obama 238.
The worst case scenario for all Democrats, but perhaps the most likely is a McCain landslide. This would be facilitated by the DNC's selective disenfranchisement of Michigan and Florida, and the likelihood of McCain selecting Mitt Romney as his vice presidential running mate. Romney is originally from Michigan and has shown an ability to connect with
the economically vulnerable voters in that state. Add Michigan and New Hampshire, it's McCain 320, Obama 218.
My hunch is that the Democratic leaders like Pelosi, Dean, and others are aware of this reality. That's why they want to shut the process down now and begin the formidable task of taking on McCain sooner rather than later. Their first task, of course, is to consolidate the base; no easy job considering many Hillary supporters think an Obama nomination illegitimate by denying her Michigan and Florida. It's also why DNC Chairman Howard Dean is saying that the most democratic process is hurting Democratic chances in the Fall.
The simple fact is that Hillary is our nominee or McCain is our next president.
[editor's note, by JFK464] On methodology. Don't make assumptions based on current polling. The contours of the electoral college are likely to be the same as 2000 and 2004, particularly after a series of devastating attack ads run by the Republicans. Obama supporters have not grasped the damage Revered Wright has inflicted on their candidate, not to mention Obama's "typical white person" comment.Tags: 2008, electoral college, Hillary Clinton, mccain, obama (all tags)
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