Recount math looks great for Franken
by Jeff Rosenberg, Wed Dec 17, 2008 at 04:12:55 AM EST
NOTE: These numbers are all estimates, as I don't think anyone has a really firm grip of where things stand by now.
After the first day of the Canvassing Board hearing challenges, Al Franken is picking up a surprising amount of ground. The UpTake's Mike McIntee estimates that out of 160 challenges yesterday, the Franken campaign gained 27 votes, for a success rate of 17% That's very high, considering that most observers expected the vast majority of challenges to be rejected. What remains to be seen is whether Coleman will fare similarly well.
What nobody knows, of course, is exactly where we stood at the end of the first phase of the recount. Estimates ranged from a 192-vote Coleman lead to a 4-vote Franken lead. Team Franken has claimed that if all challenges were rejected, they would be up by 4 votes. If true, they now have a double-digit lead.
Coleman's "official" lead grew yesterday, because the board yesterday dealt exclusively with Franken challenges, the majority of which were overturned. Because the Franken challenges are all being handled first, expect Coleman's lead to skyrocket, and then plummet just as fast. His lead now stands at about 263, but that number belies a big problem.
If Franken continues to win challenges at the current rate, his remaining 300 challenges should result in about 250 more votes for Coleman, putting him at about a 450-vote lead. The problem with a 450-vote lead is that Coleman has challenged about 1,000 ballots. Even if Coleman wins 20 percent of challenges, that will result in a net gain of 600 votes for Franken. Coleman will thus need to have far greater success than Franken to remain in the lead.
Adapted from the Twin Cities Daily Liberal. There's more recount coverage at the Daily Liberal every day.
Tags: Al Franken, MN-Sen (all tags)
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