I always lurk and never comment, but I did want to go on the record as saying that I'm still laughing my ass off. Heck, even if he can't quite afford to pay everyone's property taxes, he could, like, hold a raffle and pick 100,000 households at random...

I'm in NJ too, in an extremely pro-bama town, but I wasn't surprised by the loss. We are an exceptionally Democratic machine-driven state. Once the Governor, the Senators, and the unions went Clinton, she all at once had a dream GOTV operation with minimal effort on her part. While it didn't make Obama fans happy in the primary, it is one of the main reasons Dems win big every general (and heck, even statewide and local, lately) election and bodes very ill for any Republican hopes in November.

Nah, we're all on the same side; differences are magnified online. We will, by and large, get over our disappointments and fight McCain together. Believe me; I went all-in for Clark in '04 and Dodd this year, and I'm still around!

I never comment, but I wanted to just say -- this is perfect. "Surreal" indeed.

Did they actually apologize for that?

Any thoughts on the TAPPED report (I am a linking moron, but it's on the TAPPED page!) that many voters are angrily declaring that they're voting for Johnson precisely because of the harassing robocalls that they assume are coming from the Murphy campaign? That's got me freaked out. Any coverage of the robocall thing?

FWIW, the Fox News Poll released today gives Dems a 13-point advantage, an increase over their last lead of 11 points two weeks ago. And I have no idea how to post links, but I swear it's there!

I agree. Just by nature of this somewhat surprisingly vast playing field this cycle, IMHO there will be many extremely strong candidates in our current Tiers 2 and 3 races who'll walk away only just losing, by under 5%, after having been outspent 2-1 or more by the R. They will all be in excellent positions in 2 years, particularly with regard to R incumbents after yet another 2 years of Bush.

Wow. Depressed as he is, the dude is still holding out hope that they pick up two Senate seats, losing only the hated Chafee while picking up NJ and MD.

Thank you. It really does depend on where you are. For example --

One of the reasons I've yet to get terribly nervous about the Menendez race here in NJ, despite tight polling, is because I've seen, all across and up and down the state (I travel a lot!), the NJ Dem ground game vs. the NJ GOP ground game in the past four or five cycles, which includes our off-year Gov races. It's like watching the Yankees play my son's T-ball team. I am not kidding, in the gubernatorial race in '01, I saw canvassing by Greens and Socialists, let alone Dems -- but no Republicans. I've been all over NJ-05 recently, and Aronsohn signs are plastered all over the district -- Aronsohn! -- but Garrett signs only in a few concentrated areas. Every union HQ that I pass is buzzing. Rallying the Repub base? NJ Right to Life sent out a letter this week endorsing and urging its members to vote for a minor 3rd party candidate, specifically requesting that they not vote for Kean.

Granted, I'm not claiming to have visited every pocket of the state this election season, but I see a lot more of it than the average person, and I have to say, this is the reason the concept of "swing state" New Jersey always seems to evaporate on Election Day.

That's one way the Republicans can revenge on get us! "Sure, they one, but they all died celebrating..."

Here's what I want to know: How is the dizzying spate of rotten-to-the-core news items that you listed above, unfolding over the course of a week and change (and thank you for having the fortitude to gather all that slime), and ALL of it proof of the incompetence and evil of the Republican party -- How is this not news in and of itself? MSM outlets should be writing this exact story.

NJ voter here. A recent poll -- I want to say Rasmussen -- found that 8% think Kean Jr. is the former governor. However, IMHO, there is definitely stronger confusion between Jr.'s and Daddy's moderation and positions; voters assume Jr. is as moderate as his dad is alleged to be, but he's actually more conservative than his dad. No one really examines a voting record of a state senator.

In Menendez's favor: (1) The last several election cycles, both Sen and Gov, have shown September to be the worst month, polling-wise, for the Dem. Granted, they've usually stayed ahead, but Rs tend to close the gap in September. Then voters have come home to the Dem thereafter. (2) The worst recent poll for Menendez still had something like 21% undecided. (3) Menendez has a huge cash advantage, (4) better and more ads (that I imagine will increase in frequency in October), (5) and as acknowledged by everyone much better debating skills -- and October will bring 3 more debates. (6) Also, Dems have a pretty overwhelming GOTV operation in this state (contrary to, oh, pretty much every other state!). (7) The latest two polls (Rasmussen and M-D) have Menendez narrowly ahead, which is an improvement. (8) Rasmussen also has Bush at around 30% in NJ. (9) And finally, very sadly for the liberal base here, Menendez's pro-torture vote actually plays well among the unaffiliated and undecided; Menendez's internal polling on the issue guided that vote (vomitous, I know). BTW, according to campaign sources via TAPPED, (10) the overall internal polling is very good.

Those are the good things. Bad: Kean's not going to let up on the corruption angle, no matter how much it's debunked and despite the fact that he's getting less than the expected traction from it. Also, the biggest statewide paper, the Star-Ledger, has it out for Menendez (it also endorsed Forrester for Gov last year). And of course, the general negatives are that a Dem in a blue state should be well ahead, an incumbent Dem in a pro-Dem year should be well ahead, and for some reason voters still see a bright shiny "moderate" halo over Daddy Kean's head.

Conclusion: Menendez should pull it out, and my gut tells me by a better-than-expected margin. That's my general feel, FWIW. I read a couple of NJ papers every day, watch a lot of TV (depressing but true), and my husband is very politically active, so that's where my CW comes from!

They can try all they want to build a firewall between the "over-friendly" or "naughty" emails and the perverse IMs, but even those emails are gasp-inducing to parents, teachers, coaches, clergy, and anyone who is in any way responsible for the welfare of children. Those emails are classic, disturbing red-flags, and every good parent in America would be furious at anyone who sent emails like that to their child -- or anyone who knew that someone sent them to their child but did nothing about it. There is no shade of lipstick with which to dress up this pig.