Al Gore: The Next 44 Days.

The time has come to have a serious discussion about Al Gore and about whether or not you want him to run for President because let's be honest with each other.

Al Gore doesn't have to run. He can go forward and fight his fights from the outside in. He can run a different campaign and keep winning it. If you were Al Gore, you probably wouldn't run either. Do I think he would lose a lot of momentum if and when it's clear he isn't running for President? Hell yes. But he would still have plenty to do.

But I'm here to say: we need Al Gore.

Not from a "wouldn't it be great and make the perfect t.v. movie moment and we fade from hanging chads to confetti at The White House" but from a real deep need: this country needs Al Gore.

Al Gore thinks he is a lousy politician, he's right. He is. We need some lousy politicians who say what they mean and mean what they say. We need some lousy politicians who can't stop themselves from rolling their eyes when a member of the press asks a moronic question. We need someone who points out how stupid the captions are on t.v. shows. We need Al Gore.

Al Gore lost a race in 2000 that shouldn't have even been close. I love this about him as a potential candidate. We need someone who has run the race and lost because only someone who has lost can win in 2008. Why?

Someone who has lost will laugh when the consultants tell him what they want to charge. (20 million for six months work in the McCain campaign for example, that's what these people think is reasonable and those assholes will get jobs with someone else just you watch.)

Someone who has lost will stick to what they think. Someone who lost and left in DC will look at DC and say hmm, I lived there? What was I thinking?

Besides I don't need another a candidate to learn from losing. Gore lost and learned. Kerry lost and someday will learn. I don't need Barack or Hillary or Edwards to learn from losing - I need someone who has lost to win by learning from a previous lost.

Furthermore, for a Democrat to win, and I truly believe this, we need to run an entirely different kind of race. When I see John Edwards's first tv commercial or read Mark Penn's strategy memo or see Barack's response to 'the troops not being funded,' I don't see anyone who has much of a clue.

How about a Presidential Campaign that is new media driven where the candidate actually gets new media? How about a Presidential Campaign that has a contribution limit of $500 per person? How about a Presidential Campaign that's about YouTube and bloggers and the soul of new media? Not just the bells and whistles of a souped up traditional campaign.

Hell, how about a campaign that isn't run by, for and about Washington and instead have one that is by, for and about the people?

Paging Al Gore.

We also need a Democratic candidate who publicly and loudly called the Iraq War a mistake right from the beginning. We need a candidate who didn't vote without reading the intelligence and is now trying to correct a mistake.

We need someone who was right from the start. Because let me tell you - if you think Iraq is a mess now, wait till the end of this year - and seriously, two of our three candidates voted for the war and the other, to be fair, wasn't on the stage at the time. Of course, then there's the guy who called it a disaster before it actually was one.

That would be Al Gore.

We need a Democratic candidate who has seen the worse the other side has to offer; who has seen how they fight and how they win. We need someone who understands the evil within the opposition. We need someone who is willing to bring a gun to the gunfight. Say Al Gore.

We need a Democratic candidate who understands how the issue of climate change is impacting our world from a security standpoint, from a poverty and education point, we need someone who can use signing statements for someone other than torture. Al Gore springs to mind.

And unfortunately so do two other things. The first is that Al Gore is not a candidate and has no plans to be a candidate as of today, July 17, 2007. I promise you that this is true. There are no plans, no secret committees, no planning sessions, nada, nothing.

However, the door is not completely shut because Al Gore likes to say something like "I don't know what I would have to see to change my mind but I would know it if I saw it."

Guess  what? The only thing Al Gore needs to see is a mirror.

Because the only person who can stop Al Gore is Al Gore. And clearly, he needs a kick the ass on this one. Let me see if I can sum up my message.

Dear Al:

I get you have a great life, I saw you with Cameron Diaz at LiveEarth, I get it. I get you don't don't want to deal with the press, I saw Diane Sawyer soil herself on national tv in her interview with her. I get that answering the same stupid question is annoying.

I get that the other side plays dirty and they love to turn their machine against you and make fun of your energy bills. I get that the campaign trail is a shitty place and the food is bad and you're a long way away from your family. I get that you are making money and having fun and that it's great to work with smart people like Steve Jobs. I get that we ignored you in the 1970s and 1980s when you were right about global warming.

I get that you love your time with your family and your wife and your grandchildren.

I get that you're worried the support isn't real. That you will lose again. That it will be like December 2000 all over again. I get the fear. I get that you really really really don't want to run

I get it. Really, I do. Guess what? I don't care.

Stand up. Let's get to work.

James

The recent poll out of New Hampshire, the first one to ask the question correctly, clearly shows the support for a Al Gore run is real.

If Al Gore enters the race in New Hampshire, he wins.

If Al Gore enters the race by October 15, he can run a four month campaign and win.

So Al Gore needs to look in the mirror. He needs to see that there is one candidate who can not only win The White House, but win the country back. Al Gore knows his history. In the early days of our country, our forefathers risked everything for this country. Our early leaders ran not for themselves but for their country.  Al Gore knows this better than anyone, and Al Gore alone of all the potential candidates out there, needs to respect the history of your country and answer the call.

This then is the core issue. Because the only person who can stand up and get this thing moving is Al Gore. He has to stand up and say:

I am thinking about running,

He doesn't have to be sure. He doesn't have to commit. But nothing is going to happen until instead of saying 'no,' he says 'maybe.'

And he has to do this by September 1. Then he sets up an Exploratory Committee but guess what? His committee is really to explore whether to run or not. He can raise money and then by October 15th, he has to declare. But here's the thing. Money raised to the Exploratory Committee can be donated if not spent. So he could raise the money and say look, if I don't run, here are the ten charities I will give the money to after I pay the bills.

I will only accept donations up to $250 right now.

And if I run, I will accept another $250 from you. No more than $500 per person.

How much would he raise? Well, this has been a debate among the smarter people I know online and whole I certainly don't want to name names here are the numbers.

One prominent online strategist thinks $20 million in a month. Another thinks $30 million. And a lot of people think he could raise $40 million.

Here's how you get to $40 million.

300,000 give an average of  $80 for $24,000,000

64,000 higher end donors give $250 each.

But a funny thing happens in you're Al Gore - what do you need the money for? Television ads? Not sure you really need them. Mainstream media and the online world will carry your messages in a four month campaign.

High priced consultants? I think he learned that lesson too. He can use the money to travel, set up rallies that are free to attend, he can hold concerts like LiveEarth and make them general admission for $25.

He can barnstorm the country and speak to who he wants to, when he wants to. He doesn't have to make fundraising calls or do lots of events. He doesn't have to do tons of one on one interviews and meet the press, because the press will come meet him.

He was $20,000,000 to spend on travel, staff, and signs.

Can he raise $20,000,000? You tell me.

150,000 give an average of $80 for $12,000,000.

32,000 higher end donors give $250 each.

That's will happen.

So there you have it.

Set up a committee and raise $20 million and worst case, $15 - $18 million gets donated to charity. Set up a committee and you only get $2,000,000 - well, it's still a good month raising money for charity. And people like me shut up.

Set up a committee and see if everyone who is blathering like me will put their money where their mouth is. I will. I promise.

Set up a committee and see what the polls really do when you're really in the race.

Set up a committee and explore.

There can be a million draft Gore posts and a million people who write about him running.

There can be a thousand emails sent and a million comments online.

I have very smart top political friends who have sketched out fundraising plans.

One of the smartest political people I know has a plan for Iowa, ready for the taking.

I know people in New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, California, Washington State, they all call me and say "do you think there's a chance?"

It's the number one question I get in the traditional press.

It's the number one question I get online.

And the answer to the question is to set up a committee.

Guess who the only person who can answer that question?

Al Gore.

And he now has just under 45 days to answer it.

Tags: Al Gore (all tags)

Comments

16 Comments

Re: Al Gore: The Next 44 Days.

I'm not seeing any huge groundswell of support for Gore. All indications are that Democrats are not only satisfied, but enthusiastic, about their candidates.

With two hugely high profile front-runners, showing considerable strength in both fundraising and poll numbers, I'm having difficulty seeing an strategic opening that Gore would find attractive.

Also, you have to keep in mind that the primaries with be essentially over in just a little over six months from today. I'm not a sure there's even time for another candidate to get started in the game.

by hwc 2007-07-17 06:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Al Gore: The Next 44 Days.

I'm not seeing any huge groundswell of support for Gore. All indications are that Democrats are not only satisfied, but enthusiastic, about their candidates.

The latest Gallup poll (see RCP running archive of all Dem'08 polls):

With Gore:

HRC: 34%
Obama: 25%

Gore: 16%

Edwards: 9%
Richardson: 4%

Without Gore:
(gains from Gore's absence in parens):

HRC: 40% (+6)
Obama: 28% (+3)
Gore: -
Edwards: 13% (+4)
Richardson: 5% (+1)


These are numbers while Gore has been seen repeatedly saying he has "no plans."

There are indications that Gore would poll even stronger, probably in the 25-30%, if he actually enters the race.

If Gore gains the following relative to the "with Gore" numbers in the days following an announcment:
from HRC: 5%
from Obama: 4%
from JRE: 2%
from others: 4%

then we'd be at:

HRC: 29% (= 34-5)
Gore: 31% (= 16 + 5 + 4 + 2 + 4)
Obama: 21 (= 25-4)
Edwards: 7 (= 9-2)

These numbers were reflected in the recent Suffolk university poll of NH (If Gore enters the race: Gore 32%, HRC: 26%).

It's up to Gore to choose to enter or stay out. But if he does enter the race, he's likely to emerge with numbers very close to HRC, and the race will probably be a Gore vs HR Clinton one in short order, with Obama polling a strong third (hence a Gore/Obama ticket would likely emerge naturally).

by NuevoLiberal 2007-07-17 09:12AM | 0 recs
He's already in 3rd place

For months, according to the RCP average, Al Gore has been ahead of John Edwards - an announced candidate who's barn-storming this country.  Go to the site right now, Al Gore is in 3rd place, and I would be willing to bet that most of the people supporting Edwards right now would drop him and go to Gore.  That looks like close 30% as a starting point - ahead of Obama and on the heels of Hillary.

You and I both know that Iowa caucus-goers would flock to Gore over Hillary.  He would win Iowa and New Hampshire without raising any money or breaking a sweat. Period.

Obama is a nice guy with great potential, but you and I both know that he has no chance of taking this thing from Hillary.  He's no JFK.

Of course there's an opening.

by Lassallean 2007-07-17 07:50AM | 0 recs
Re: He's already in 3rd place

I don't see the opening. If you step back to get a little perspective, Gore plays the same role as Clinton: the very well-known establishment candidate with traditional Democratic party appeal. Same base of support from party poo-bahs. Same money channels.

His opening into the race always had to start with Hillary faltering. Unfortunately (for Gore), Clinton is not faltering. To the contrary, she is running an outstanding campaign and proving to be a force on the campaign trail as events like the debates increase, rather than decrease, her stature in the race. She's a much better campaigner than Gore.

by hwc 2007-07-17 08:21AM | 0 recs
Re: He's already in 3rd place

I agree that Gore was an establishment candidate in 2000.  But as soon as he grew that beard and started ranting against the Iraq War, he underwent a personal conversion.  No doubt.  He is the inside man who turned outsider.  Very compelling.

Why do Republicans get to govern from the extreme right while Democrats must be uniters and moderates?  Why do Democrats have to run the safe, solid campaign while Republicans get to be as blatantly partisan as they want?

What the Democratic Party needs is a candidate with a spine, not  someone with empty slogans so riddled with nuance that no one is sure where they stand (ie Hillary).  If we are going to lose, and it looks lke we might lose if we nominate Hillary, why not lose and show the voters what we actually stand for?

I'll take Edwards if Gore doesn't jump in.

by Lassallean 2007-07-17 09:28AM | 0 recs
Re: He's already in 3rd place

The only "conversion" Gore underwent was the realization that he really didn't enjoy politics very much. I'm sure it was a difficult conversion, given that he had grown up in Washington prep schools as the son of US Senator.

by hwc 2007-07-17 09:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Al Gore: The Next 44 Days.


I agree that Al Gore would be the best President and he is the man for this moment.

However, I saw him (I think on Larry King) recently reject and disagree the idea of Impeachment of Cheney & Bush -- even though the book that he was promoting "The Assault On Reason" seemed to all but directly demand it.

My point: There are two Al Gores.

1. There is the Al Gore who follows his heart, brains, and in-depth analysis.
2. Then there is the Al Gore that is worried about political perceptions and is more self-restricting, overly-cautious, and calculating. (this is the Al Gore that went on Daine Sawyer and voluntarily brought up the Lewinsky scandal, long after the public could care less anymore, and, the Al Gore that does not agree with Impeaching Dick Cheney)

When the subject is Global Warming, the first Al Gore is the one that we almost always see.
When the subject other political topics, the second Al Gore seems to dominate over the first -- even though there is really a first Al Gore underneath somewhere on these issues as well.

I want Al Gore to be the first Al Gore all the time.  While these beltway political-consultant-hacks are very definitely a problem, they are not the whole problem.   Al Gore is never going to be a more polished version of Dennis Kucinich.  There is something that restrains him - even now, when he is not a candidate.

He is, however, clearly the best qualified and the smartest choice that we could make for our next President.   I just wish Gore had the fire in his belly for more things than just the Climate issue.  I can't say that I blame him though.  The Media ripped him off before and the Media has only gotten worse (not better) since 1999-2000.

I'd be very surprised if he got in (although happy), but the logistics of a late-entry in this $100 million dollar campaign environment makes it virtually impossible.

by DerekLarsson 2007-07-17 08:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Al Gore: The Next 44 Days.

What hundred million campaign.

My goodness, these candidates who've been running are running a Beauty Pageant with the Marketing and PR being paid at astronomical amounts.

What's the average these folks have spent so far?

In the first half of a Primary race?

Obama , 21. 5 Million dollars spent already.  That's disgusting.

McCain 20. Mill

Clinton 19 or 20 Million

Romney 20.4 Million

Those strategists and media sure are getting rich.

No, Al will be fine.  He will be able to raise the money needed NO PROBLEM

by LindaSFNM 2007-07-17 08:43AM | 0 recs
We NEED Al Gore-Time for a COOL change, Gore 2008

We NEED Al Gore-Time for a COOL change, Gore 2008

I even ran in to a young lady this w/e at our Farmers Market when she saw our GORE Buttons and asked. She is even more pessimistic about our future with the current field of Democratic candidates saying they are making the Repubs look good. I don't think I can go that far, but when you only have Light vs Real, it's always better to go with the real. And, her perception is the problem. She said she hopes for Al, because he is our and the Dem's only chance.

I offered her a button. She put it on INSTANTLY and then went to talk to a large group of friends. I loved looking back at them and seeing that button shining bright.

Al, we know we need you. Now you know, we know and now it is time to help us forward.

Please Al, feel that passion you have tucked deep inside. Set it free and lead us back to our greatness.

by LindaSFNM 2007-07-17 08:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Al Gore: The Next 44 Days.

Great statement, James Boyce!  I vigorously support almost everything you wrote.  Thank you so much.

As to hwc's assertion that there is no ground swell for Gore, let me share some facts from our experiences here in Michigan and Chicago.  I am the Co-Chair of our Michigan Draft Gore effort and have collected personally more than 2,500 signatures on Draft Gore petitions.  

Due to the support of many 501.c.3 and non-partisan organizations for the July 7 Live Earth concerts and other activities, Gore had to repeat over and over that he was not thinking about running for President, he is not attracted to politics, etc.  Despite those continuous statements that he was not a candidate:

*    More than 100,000 signed the DraftGore.com online petition.
*    More than 38,000 signed the AlGore.org online petition, including 9,000 in the last month
*    Over 160 monthly meetings of Draft Gore supporters, called Meetups, are listed on the AlGore.org website with 3 to 57 members, and that does not include all of the 106 Meetups listed on the DraftAlGore.meetup.com website with 3 to 86 members
*    At the February 2007 Democratic State Convention in Detroit we collected over 850 signatures from the 1,500 attendees, and at the April 2007 Dem State Jefferson-Jackson Dinner we collected another 200 more.
*    At the Annual Dem County Dinners in the rural counties of Huron and Allegan I collected 36 petition signatures from the 45 Huron attendees and 42 signatures from the almost 60 Allegan attendees.
*    On June 6 four Michigan Gore supporters and I went over to help the Chicago Draft Gore group collect petition signatures outside of Al Gore's book signing at the Borders Bookstore in Downtown Barack Obama territory.  Over five hours we collected more than 850 signatures from African Americans, Anglos and Hispanics.
*    At the monthly meetings of Detroit's mostly African American 13th and 14th Congressional Districts we collected more than 65 signatures from the 225 or so members in attendance.  Many said as they signed, "Right now I am supporting Edwards (or Clinton or Obama), but I will switch to Gore as soon as he announces."
*    On June 23 outside Michael Moore's premier of SICKO at the two showings in the 400 seat Bellaire Theater in northern Michigan, I collected 205 signatures and many had already signed the petition elsewhere.
*    At three 4th of July  parades and a fireworks I collected over 200 signatures.
*    And last Friday night outside of a performance of the Broadway show Wicked I collected 90 signatures in an hour.  

These efforts are only a few of what we are doing in Michigan, and others across the nation.  All of us are volunteers and we have donated our own money for flyers, buttons, bumper stickers, and Tshirts.  And Al Gore is not a candidate at this time.  Gee, hwc, if this is what is happening when Gore is saying he in not a candidate, the even larger ground swell that erupts when Gore announces will surely impress you.  

Bob Alexander, East Lansing, Michigan

by Bob Alexander 2007-07-17 01:40PM | 0 recs
with all due respect

if Gore needs a "kick in the ass" to get into the campaign, he shouldn't be in it in the first place.

Secondly, the Suffolk poll was an extreme outlier, because its methodology was flawed (see pollster.com ) No other pollster puts Gore at more than 15 percent in NH. The latest, post Q2 polls show that Gore has lost significant steam.

Thirdly, despite a publicity blitzkrieg for Live Earth, it was not successful. Gore's signature issue has been somewhat mooted by this.

Fourthly, Gore has stated 999999 times that, barring some existential shock to the way things are/ are expected to be, he will not be running. All along, Draft Gore partisans have been clutching at his every statement as proof that "Gore is not not not not not ruling out a run for president!" However, he was very serious.

Fifthly, as others have already alluded to, even if Gore seems like a compelling candidate now, he will not be one once he gets in, both because of his own freezeups and because he has been hyped up from successful activist and businessman, to some sort of political messiah.

by jforshaw 2007-07-17 04:57PM | 0 recs
Gore Freeze Ups?

September 2002:

I'm speaking today in an effort to recommend a specific course of action for our country, which I sincerely believe would be better for our country than the policy that is now being pursued by President Bush. Specifically, I am deeply concerned that the course of action that we are presently embarking upon with respect to Iraq has the potential to seriously damage our ability to win the war against terrorism and to weaken our ability to lead the world in this new century.

It seems to me, what it mattered, Al Gore was the only prominent Democrat who didn't freeze up.

by Winston Smith 2007-07-17 07:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Gore Freeze Ups?

Gore wasn't alone. Obama and Kucinish were both saying the same thing in 2002.

by Pope Jeremy 2007-07-17 09:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Gore Freeze Ups?

Prominent.  

And though only a state legislator, I respect Obama's position here and that makes him my number two choice.  

by Winston Smith 2007-07-17 09:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Gore Freeze Ups?

The more time goes on, the more I think of just going crazy and volunteering for Kucinich. His entire history is of him being right when everybody else is wrong. From the war to the power companies in Cleveland, to National Health Care, it always seems like he's he one person who is correct when it counts.

Aww, hell. Now I'm gonna have to Google to see if I even can volunteer around here.

by Pope Jeremy 2007-07-18 06:45AM | 0 recs
Re: with all due respect

"if Gore needs a "kick in the ass" to get into the campaign, he shouldn't be in it in the first place."

I really disagree. I think that if you don't need a kick in the pants to run for office and you just decide on your own that you want it, that you might have some inflated ego problems, or just a lust for power.

I want a candidate who has to be pushed to run.

by Pope Jeremy 2007-07-17 09:11PM | 0 recs

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