Ian Welsh is wrong about Iraq

I am an anti-war Democrat. I opposed the war from the beginning, on the grounds that I thought, in 2002-3, that Saddam posed no serious threat to the US or world and was well contained post-1991, and that US occupation of Iraq would be a disasterous legitimization of Osama bin Laden's rhetoric about Western occupation, and would likely put us squarely in the middle of a centuries-old sectarian conflict.

But seeing my worst fears realized in Iraq doesn't mean that I'm now convinced that the BEST thing we can do now is disengage completely and leave Iraq 'to the Iraqis', as the saying goes. Which means I think that Ian Welsh's recent diary (promoted by Matt) in which he contends that we cannot possibly defeat Al-Qaida elements in Iraq and must withdraw 100% of our troops from that region is utterly wrong.

More in the extended...

Now, I am convinced that Iraq's raging civil war, between Shia and Sunni factions of Iraqi arabs, is one which the US cannot possibly win, and certainly ought to get out of. That means we can, and I think should, withdraw our troops from Baghdad, and most of our troops from all of Iraq. When people want to kill each other over who the rightful heir of Mohammed was, we don't have a dog in that fight.

But we do have a dog in the fight against global terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaida. And it is nonsense to think that Al-Qaida in Iraq is simply a branch of the Sunni insurgency. They are there because we are there: Islamist terrorists want to kill Americans, and they'll do it wherever they can. What's more, we must face up to the fact that some portion of our war against these people must involve actually killing the bad guys. Wherever they are. I happen to think it should be a smaller portion of our global war on terror than it currently is (Gen. Abizaid says it should be about 20%, with diplomacy, economic support, humanitarian aid, and informational persuasion making up the rest - that seems about right to me), but it cannot simply be stopped.
If we give up the opportunity to kill terrorists in Iraq, we'll be allowing them to rebuild, somewhat, the safe-haven they lost in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan is relevent in another way as well: Ian suggests that only the Iraqis can defeat Al-Qaida in Iraq, but if that were true, it would be logical to assume that only the Afghans can defeat Al-Qaida in Afghanistan. That, of course, is doubly false: we know for a fact that the Afghans could NOT defeat Al-Qaida without US assistance, and we also know that the US CAN defeat Al-Qaida in nations like Afghanistan (perhaps not as completely as we'd like, but still a pretty punishing defeat). The obvious fact is that if we left anti-terrorism to regional powers, they would fail to aggressively fight for our interests, because those are not always the same as their interests. See Pakistan, for example.

So what is a good progressive who wants to end the futile mess in  Iraq to do? Well, I am for what I'll describe as 'the Democratic plan', so-called because I think it has the support of nearly every democratic candidate for president (except Kucinich on the far left, and to some extent Hillary on the right). That is to dramatically reduce our forces in Iraq, redeploy away from Baghdad and the mixed sectarian areas (where the civil war cannot be stopped), base our remaining troops in Kurdistan (where they will be generally secure and greeted as allies), and conduct anti-terror missions throughout Northern Iraq, limiting ourselves to strikes against foreign fighters. No more patrolling the streets, no more standing between Shiites and Sunnis. Just fighting terrorists. Will it be a guaranteed, unqualified success? No, probably not, just like Afghanistan. But I think it's the best option left out there, among many bad options.

Tags: al-qaida, clinton, Iraq, obama (all tags)

Comments

17 Comments

Re: Tip Jar

And if anyone has critiques, I'd welcome those too.

Personally, I think it'd be cool if someone like Jerome or Chris bumped this to the front page, if just to balance the one that Matt bumped. Just sayin'.

by James Gatz 2007-03-27 11:43AM | 0 recs
If I can offer a critique

Taking most of what you said there as a starting point, and I agree with most of it, a localized strategy to combat those Terrorists is going to be required.

I really don't see how you can conduct those kinds of missions from 100s of miles away.  I don't know how we can't track down Terrorists in Afghanistan without having troops deployed to afghanistan.

and i don't know how we can track down terrorists in iraq without deploying troops to iraq.

also, it's been brought up that there are oil fields in iraq.  under the plan you just described, do they go unprotected if iraqis can't do so themselves?

by Stewieeeee 2007-03-27 12:44PM | 0 recs
Re: If I can offer a critique

If you read the diary, you'd see that I do support troops being in Iraq and Afghanistan for the purposes of anti-terrorism. I hope that's clear.

As for the oil fields, unless you happen to work for Shell or Exxon, I don't know why you should give a damn. I don't.

by James Gatz 2007-03-27 01:10PM | 0 recs
OK

I misunderstood.  There seems to be this need to paint hillary's plan to leave troops in iraq for the purposes of anti-terrorism as somehow substantially different than any other plan (see yours above) to leave troops in iraq for the purposes of anti-terrorism.  i categorize these portrayals of the same plan as spin.

patrolling borders does have an anti-terrorism purpose to it.

training iraqis does make sense if iraqis are willing to do that.

all plans contain these elements.

so.  the only other topic that remains, the one thing that hillary's said is that troops would also remain to protect oil fields.

i value your perspective on that issue.  what i want to know is if the other dem candidates share your perspective on that issue.

for right now, neither obama or edwards has specifically stated that protecting oil fields is NOT part of their plan.  they simply have not yet admitted that protecting oil fields could be a part of their plan.

as we are a nation that will remain dependent on oil for at least the next 5 years, if not 10 or 20 more years thereafter, any oil reserves that increase supply will affect price according to economic law of supply and demand.

i'm going to assume that obama and edwards know that oil fields will need to be protected, and that they simply will hold off saying so for as long as possible (all the way through the primary if they can get away with it) for fear of upsetting their anti-war support groups.

by Stewieeeee 2007-03-27 01:55PM | 0 recs
Re: OK

Protect them from what, and for whom are we protecting them.  The oil will be sold no matter who controls it, otherwise it has no value.  It is not in anyones interest that any particular entity controll them.

by Dameocrat 2007-03-27 03:59PM | 0 recs
Re: OK

Damn right, Dameocrat. I don't agree with your over-optimistic comments below, but you're absolutely right about oil. They can't drink the stuff, you know!

by James Gatz 2007-03-27 05:01PM | 0 recs
ok

so lets hear obama and edwards use that perspective to explain why they won't need any troops at all for the oil fields.

"senator obama.  you and senator clinton both say troops will need to be left in iraq for the purpose of anti-terrorism, but senator clinton says she will need to leave some troops in iraq to protect the oil fields.  if iraqis are unable to protect the oil fields, should american troops be used to do that??"

and barack obama answers:  "Protect them from what, and for whom are we protecting them.  The oil will be sold no matter who controls it, otherwise it has no value.  It is not in anyones interest that any particular entity controll them."

by Stewieeeee 2007-03-27 06:43PM | 0 recs
Re: If I can offer a critique

We have airplanes, aircraft carriers, the cia and military intelligence.  Al Qaeda needs to be a law enforcement operation, not a war.

by Dameocrat 2007-03-27 01:41PM | 0 recs
Re: If I can offer a critique

Well.  Try conducting law enforcement in St. Louis from Baltimore.  You know.  Using airplanes, aircraft carriers, cia and military intelligence.

by Stewieeeee 2007-03-27 01:58PM | 0 recs
Re: If I can offer a critique

We have embasseys.

by Dameocrat 2007-03-27 03:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Ian Welsh is wrong about Iraq

If we leave and concentrate on afghanistan, they will go to afghanistan to fight us and we will only have one war to worry about, and it will be from a country that ACTUALLY ASSAULTED the US on the 9/11.  It maybe at this point Afghanistan is just as hosed, primarily because we wasted our precious military resources on that loser in Iraq, but we can only deal with one issue at a time.  Let's start with the biggest problem which is Iraq.

You can't fight two wars at once.

I favor delta strikes at al qaeda if there is a flair up, but permanant military bases are just out of the question.  This will not end the war and America doesn't have the money for this war.  There is no reason for it.

by Dameocrat 2007-03-27 01:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Ian Welsh is wrong about Iraq

"You can't fight two wars at once."

Sure you can! Ever heard of the Second World War? Pacific and European theaters? How about the fact that we fought Korea with huge numbers of troops still in  Europe, or Vietnam with troops in Europe and Korea? And the fact that we're fighting terrorists in several countries right now (not just Iraq and Afghanistan, but Somalia, the Phillippines, various -stans, etc.)?

I can't stand foreign policy by cliche, which seems to be what you advocate.

And the contention that if we pull out of Iraq the Al-Qaida elements there will simply follow us to Afghanistan! What a crock! Few if any of them have ever been to Afghanistan (most are Arab), and the fundamental reason Al-Qaida had bases in Afghanistan was that they COULD - it was a safe haven for terrorists. If we allow Anbar to become the same thing, they will most certainly not all leave! Sorry to unload on you like this, Dameocrat, but your conception of our enemy is completely ignorant.

I want to end this war, and I believe that the sooner we stop fighting the sectarian conflict in Iraq, the sooner it will burn itself out (at great cost of life, mind you, but that's how civil wars are). But we can't stop fighting against terrorists and hope that they will also go their own way. Because their own way is killing us.

by James Gatz 2007-03-27 04:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Ian Welsh is wrong about Iraq

I won't answer you poll because military bases and military strikes on Al Qaeda are not the same thing and you clearly think they are.

by Dameocrat 2007-03-27 01:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Ian Welsh is wrong about Iraq

Where do you propose such strikes come from? Outer space?

I think you need to make up your mind whether you're for anti-terrorism or not. Because if you are, then the forces that engage in that (special forces, whatever) need to be based SOMEWHERE, and need those bases to be relatively close to the people they are supposed to kill.

For the Al-Qaida elements in Iraq, I propose we fight them from bases in Kurdistan (with, perhaps, some short deployments in other parts of Sunni northern Iraq), the one part of Iraq that would gladly allow our troops to stay there for the long haul.

by James Gatz 2007-03-27 05:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Ian Welsh is wrong about Iraq

You didn't address Ian's point, which is that Al Qaeda cannot be beaten by American troops in Iraq.  It can only be beaten by Iraqis.  You are just reiterating the 'we have to leave troops there to beat them', which is another green lantern theory of American all-powerfulness.

by Matt Stoller 2007-03-28 10:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Ian Welsh is wrong about Iraq

Well, I do like green lanterns...

by James Gatz 2007-03-28 11:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Ian Welsh is wrong about Iraq

Seriously, though, I think I did address that. If it's not clear in the diary, here's my response to that idea:

Iraqis most certainly cannot defeat Al-Qaida. They can probably withstand Al-Qaida's attacks, but I see no indication from Iraqi Army (meaning Shiite, of course) operations to date that they can aggessively prosecute Al-Qaida in Anbar or other Sunni areas. Which means that if we completely withdraw Al-Qaida will have re-established a safe haven from which to attack westerners and western interests around the globe.

Now, this is of course yet another example of why we shouldn't have invaded in the first place (Saddam's Sunni dictatorship was bad, but at least it didn't harbor Islamist terrorists, and had the power to prevent them from taking root, at least in Sunni regions), but unfortunately we did, and here we are.

I also should point out that if US forces leave Iraq, the number of Al-Qaida attacks IN Iraq probably would go down (less inviting targets), but the number of cross-border attacks into Jordan, Saudi, and perhaps across the globe to Europe or the US, would almost certainly soar. There is a speck of truth in the 'fight them there so we don't fight them here' right-wing talking point, if only they limited their conception of 'them' to Al-Qaida, instead of insisting that the bulk of the insurgency and sectarian conflict has anything to do with us (which it mostly doesn't).

I don't think that we can eliminate Al-Qaida, in Iraq or anywhere, without a multi-pronged fight that involves far more than just military forces. But I do think that military forces will have to be able to strike at terrorist camps, concentrations, and especially 'safe havens', or else we're giving them a free pass to strike out at us. And that means we need to keep some small number of troops somewhere in Iraq to strike at terrorists in Anbar.

Is that a direct enough address of the point?

by James Gatz 2007-03-28 11:51AM | 0 recs

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