Ian Welsh is wrong about Iraq
by James Gatz, Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 11:30:31 AM EDT
I am an anti-war Democrat. I opposed the war from the beginning, on the grounds that I thought, in 2002-3, that Saddam posed no serious threat to the US or world and was well contained post-1991, and that US occupation of Iraq would be a disasterous legitimization of Osama bin Laden's rhetoric about Western occupation, and would likely put us squarely in the middle of a centuries-old sectarian conflict.
But seeing my worst fears realized in Iraq doesn't mean that I'm now convinced that the BEST thing we can do now is disengage completely and leave Iraq 'to the Iraqis', as the saying goes. Which means I think that Ian Welsh's recent diary (promoted by Matt) in which he contends that we cannot possibly defeat Al-Qaida elements in Iraq and must withdraw 100% of our troops from that region is utterly wrong.
More in the extended...
Now, I am convinced that Iraq's raging civil war, between Shia and Sunni factions of Iraqi arabs, is one which the US cannot possibly win, and certainly ought to get out of. That means we can, and I think should, withdraw our troops from Baghdad, and most of our troops from all of Iraq. When people want to kill each other over who the rightful heir of Mohammed was, we don't have a dog in that fight.
But we do have a dog in the fight against global terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaida. And it is nonsense to think that Al-Qaida in Iraq is simply a branch of the Sunni insurgency. They are there because we are there: Islamist terrorists want to kill Americans, and they'll do it wherever they can. What's more, we must face up to the fact that some portion of our war against these people must involve actually killing the bad guys. Wherever they are. I happen to think it should be a smaller portion of our global war on terror than it currently is (Gen. Abizaid says it should be about 20%, with diplomacy, economic support, humanitarian aid, and informational persuasion making up the rest - that seems about right to me), but it cannot simply be stopped.
If we give up the opportunity to kill terrorists in Iraq, we'll be allowing them to rebuild, somewhat, the safe-haven they lost in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan is relevent in another way as well: Ian suggests that only the Iraqis can defeat Al-Qaida in Iraq, but if that were true, it would be logical to assume that only the Afghans can defeat Al-Qaida in Afghanistan. That, of course, is doubly false: we know for a fact that the Afghans could NOT defeat Al-Qaida without US assistance, and we also know that the US CAN defeat Al-Qaida in nations like Afghanistan (perhaps not as completely as we'd like, but still a pretty punishing defeat). The obvious fact is that if we left anti-terrorism to regional powers, they would fail to aggressively fight for our interests, because those are not always the same as their interests. See Pakistan, for example.
So what is a good progressive who wants to end the futile mess in Iraq to do? Well, I am for what I'll describe as 'the Democratic plan', so-called because I think it has the support of nearly every democratic candidate for president (except Kucinich on the far left, and to some extent Hillary on the right). That is to dramatically reduce our forces in Iraq, redeploy away from Baghdad and the mixed sectarian areas (where the civil war cannot be stopped), base our remaining troops in Kurdistan (where they will be generally secure and greeted as allies), and conduct anti-terror missions throughout Northern Iraq, limiting ourselves to strikes against foreign fighters. No more patrolling the streets, no more standing between Shiites and Sunnis. Just fighting terrorists. Will it be a guaranteed, unqualified success? No, probably not, just like Afghanistan. But I think it's the best option left out there, among many bad options.









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