Election Predictions (President, Governors, Senate, House)

Following is my thumbnail analysis and predictions for the Presidential, Governors, Senate, and House races tomorrow.

Less than nine hours until voting starts in Dixville Notch....

Summary

Presidential

Obama:   364 EV, McCain 174 EV        Popular vote percentages:   Obama 51.5,  McCain 46.9, Other 1.6

Notes:   Allocating Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana were the most difficult decisions.   I'm using, via proxy from public polls, relatively conservative turnout models and breaking the undecideds to McCain by 1.5 net points and allocating an additional 1 point for racially motivated "Bradely effect," which I believe is minimal but not non-existent.

The known unknowns to me at this point are the relative strength of the Obama GOTV operation to McCain's state by state and just what effect "cell phone only" households will have.  It's possible to add 1 to 1.5 points to Obama's percentage to each; I have thought it prudent not to do so on a general basis but have factored GOTV into the results of a couple of highly contested states.  

Governors

A net gain of +1 for the Democrats, for a total of 29.   North Carolina was the most difficult to call and I finally did so with crossed fingers on the basis of African American turnout in early voting.

Note that with the exception of Vermont and New Hampshire, which elect governors every two years, the governors elected tomorrow will control their state houses for the redistricting after the 2010 census.

US Senate

Democrats:  +8 seats.    Minnesota was the most difficult to call.

Gets the Senate to 59 Democrats, counting Lieberman, which is an arguable position and which we will have to see play out.   The GA seat may very will go to a run-off if neither candidate gets 50 percent.   This is one contest can make a difference.   I think the Democratic candidates will be close but no cigar in Mississippi and Kentucky.   A pity, particularly about Mitch McConnell's seat in Kentucky.

House

A little political schizophrenia here.   I predict a net gain of 36 seats for the Democrats.  However, if you examine my race by race selections, you'll see that they add to a net gain of 41.   A 41 seat gain simply doesn't feel right to me, 35 or 36 sitting much better in my gut.   Which means that a couple of Democrats in toss-up races will lose where I figure them to win or a couple of Democratic challengers will fall just short, as they did in 2006.   In counterpoint, I've already assigned races like the AZ-03 (Shadegg) to the Republicans though there's a chance for a Democratic upset.

House races are the most difficult of this group to handicap.  There are fewer polls and what polls there are tend to be less reliable.  Tracking fundraising and advertising expenditures are interesting but not always determinative.  Input from field observers can be either valid or skewed and it's sometimes difficult to tease out which is which.

2008 Election Prediction Contest

Presidential

State  EV's Winner
1 Alabama 9                       McCain
2 Alaska 3                        McCain
3 Arizona 10                      McCain
4 Arkansas 6                      McCain
5 California 55                   Obama
6 Colorado 9                      Obama
7 Connecticut 7                   Obama
8 District of Columbia 3          Obama
9 Delaware 3                      Obama
10 Florida 27                     Obama
11 Georgia 15                     McCain
12 Hawaii 4                       Obama
13 Idaho 4                        McCain
14 Illinois 21                    Obama
15 Indiana 11                     McCain
16 Iowa 7                         Obama
17 Kansas 6                       McCain
18 Kentucky 8                     McCain
19 Louisiana 9                    McCain
20 Maine 4                        Obama
21 Maryland 10                    Obama
22 Massachusetts 12               Obama
23 Michigan 17                    Obama
24 Minnesota 10                   Obama
25 Mississippi 6                  McCain
26 Missouri 11                    Obama
27 Montana 3                      McCain
28 Nebraska 5                     McCain
29 Nevada 5                       Obama
30 New Hampshire 4                Obama
31 New Jersey 15                  Obama
32 New Mexico 5                   Obama
33 New York  31                   Obama
34 North Carolina 15              Obama
35 North Dakota 3                 McCain
36 Ohio 20                        Obama
37 Oklahoma 7                     McCain
38 Oregon 7                       Obama
39 Pennsylvania 21                Obama
40 Rhode Island  4                Obama
41 South Carolina 8               McCain
42 South Dakota 3                 McCain
43 Tennessee 11                   McCain
44 Texas 34                       McCain
45 Utah 5                         McCain
46 Vermont 3                      Obama
47 Virginia 13                    Obama
48 Washington 11                  Obama
49 West Virginia 5                McCain
50 Wisconsin 10                   Obama
51 Wyoming 3                      McCain

===

For Governors, Senate, and House races, the following indicators apply:

* = Incumbent     # = open seat, candidate of incumbent's party
D = Democrat    R = Republican    I = Independent
AL = at-large        

Winners listed by seat.

Note #1:  if a 50 percent plus one majority is not attained in the GA Senate race,  
a run-off election will be held in December

Note #2:  there are two seats from MS up this year.  
Thad Cochran is running for re-election in the MS-A seat.
Roger Wicker is running to fill the MS-B seat for the remainder of the term of Trent Lott, who resigned in December.

Note #3:  there are two seats up in Wyoming.   Michael Enzi is running for re-election for the WY-A seat. John Barrasso is running for the WY-B seat to fill the unexpired term of  
Larry Craig,who died in June

Governors Races  (11)
State Name Party

52 DE Markell# D

55 IN Daniels* R

56 NH Lynch* D

58 MO Nixon D

60 MT Schweitzer* D

62 NC Perdue# D

65 ND Hoeven* R

67 UT Huntsman* R

69 VT Douglas* R

70 WA Gregoire* D

72 WV Manchin* D

U.S. Senate Races  (35)

75 AL Sessions* R

76 AK Begich D

78 AR Pryor* D

80 CO Mark Udall D

82 DE Biden* D

84 GA Martin D

87 ID Risch* R

88 IL Durbin* D

90 IA Harkin* D

93 LS Roberts* R

95 KY McConnell* R

96 LA Landrieu* D  

98 MA Kerry* D

101 ME Collins* R

102 MI Levin* D
103 MI Hoogendyk R

104 MN Franken D

108 MS-A Cochran* R

110 MS-B Wicker* R

111 MT Baucus* D

114 NE Johanns# R

115 NH Shaheen D

117 NJ Lautenberg* D

119 NM Tom Udall D

121 NC Hagan D  

124 OK Inhofe* R

125 OR Merkley D

127 RI Reed* D

130 SC Graham* R

131 SD Johnson* D

134 TN Alexander* R

136 TX Cornyn* R

137 VA Warner D  

139 WV Rockefeller* D

142 WY-A Enzi* R

144 WY-B Barrasso R

U.S. House Races  (109)

145 AK AL Berkowitz D

148 AL 02 Love# R

150 AL 03 Rogers* R

151 AL 05 Griffith# D

153 AZ 01 Kilpatrick D

156 AZ 03 Shadegg* R

157 AZ 05 Mitchell* D

159 AZ 08 Giffords* D

162 CA 03 Lungren* R

163 CA 04 Brown D  

166 CA 11 McNerney* R

168 CA 26 Dreier* R

170 CA 45 Bono* R

172 CA 46 Rohrbacher* R

174 CA 50 Bilbray* R

175 CO 04 Markey D

177 CT 04 Himes D

179 CT 05 Murphy* D

181 FL 08 Grayson D

183 FL 13 Jennings D

184 FL 13 Buchanan* R

186 FL 16 Rooney R

188 FL 18 Ros-Lehtinen* R

190 FL 21 Lincoln Diaz-Balert* R

191 FL 24 Kosmas D

193 FL 25 Garcia D

196 GA 06 Price* R

197 GA 08 Marshall* D  

199 GA 13 Scott* D

202 IA 04 Latham* R

204 IA 05 King* R

205 ID 01 Minnick D

208 IL 06 Roskam* R

209 IL 10 Seals D

211 IL 11 Halvorson D

214 IL 13 Biggert* R

215 IL 14 Foster* D

218 IL 18 Schock# R

219 IN 03 Montagano D

222 IN 04 Buyer* R

223 IN 09 Hill* D

225 KS 02 Boyda* D

227 KS 03 Moore* D

230 KS 04 Tiahrt* R

231 KY 02 Boswell D

233 KY 03 Yarmuth* D

236 LA 01 Scalise* R

237 LA 04 Carmouche D

239 LA 06 Cazayoux* D

242 LA 07 Boustany* R

243 MD 01 Kratovil D

246 MD 06 Bartlett* R

248 MI 07 Wahlberg* R

249 MI 09 Peters D

251 MN 01 Walz* D

254 MN 02 Kline* R

255 MN 03 Madia D

257 MN 06 Tinkelberg D

260 MO 06 Graves* R

261 MO 09 Baker D

263 MS 01 Childers* D

265 NE 02  Esch D

268 NV 02 Heller* R

269 NV 03 Titus D

271 NH 01 Shea-Porter* D

273 NM 01 Heinrich D

275 NM 02 Teague D

277 NJ 03 Adler D

280 NJ 04 Smith* R

281 NJ 05 Shulman D

283 NJ 07 Stender D

285 NY 13 McMahon D

287 NY 20 Gillibrand* D

289 NY 25 Maffei D

292 NY 26 Lee# R

293 NY 29 Massa D

296 NC 05 Foxx* R

297 NC 08 Kissell D

300 NC 10 McHenry* R

301 OH 01 Driehaus D

303 OH 02 Wulsin D

306 OH 03 Turner* R

308 OH 07 Austria* R

309 OH 15 Kilroy D

311 OH 16 Boccieri D

314 OK 01 Sullivan* R

315 OR 05 Schrader# D

317 PA 03 Dahlkemper D

319 PA 04 Altmire* D

322 PA 05 McCracken# R

324 PA 06 Gerlach* R

325 PA 08 Murphy* D

327 PA 10 Carney* D

329 PA 11 Kanjorski* D

331 PA 12 Murtha* D

334 PA 15 Dent* R

335 SC 01 Ketner D

338 SC 02 Wilson* R

340 TX 07 Culberson* R

342 TX 10 McCaul* R

344 TX 22 Olson R

345 TX 23 Rodriguez* D

347 VA 02 Nye D

349 VA 05 Perriello D

352 VA 10 Wolf* R

353 VA 11 Connolly D

355 WA 08 Burner D

357 WI 08 Kagen* D

360 WV 02 Capito* R

361 WY AL Trauner D

Tie Breaker:  Obama margin of victory (percentage plus or minus, e.g., +6.2, -1.3):  +4.6

Tags: 2008 elections, House, mccain, obama, Senate (all tags)

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