OR "What a difference an election makes." 

One could say that there is a lot that is the matter with Kansas.  It's Republican and it's conservative.  And until January 2007, the second congressional district ("KS-02") was "represented" by ultra-right winger Jim Ryan, who voted in lock step with Tom DeLay - wrong on virtually everything.  Few believed a democrat had a chance here.  KS-02 has a PVI of R+7 (meaning that the district votes 7% more republican than the county as a whole).   But in 2006, Nancy Boyda turned this district blue, winning the seat even while being outspent by 50%.  Only two seats in the country more red than this one turned blue in 2006 (IN-08 and TX 22).  

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CQ reports this evening that freshman Democrat Ron Klein, who took out Clay Shaw last fall, raised a whopping $600,000 during the first quarter, and had over $500,000 cash on hand on April 1.  This is a tough district; and Klein spent over $4 million for the 2006 race.

CQ also reports that Klein has drawn an opponent, "Republican Marc Flagg, a former Navy pilot whose parents were killed on the plane that crashed into the Pentagon on Sept. 11, 2001." Flagg is currently a flight engineer for UPS.  I confess I know nothing about Flagg and am not from Florida.  Anybody have a take on Flagg?  

Link:   http://www.cqpolitics.com/2007/04/gops_f lagg_raises_campaign_ban.html#more

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In a new poll, Dem Patsy Madrid has expanding her lead over incumbent Rep Heather Wilson to 49-45.  This is the latest Albuquerque Journal/Research and Polling poll by veteran New Mexico pollster Brian Sanderoff.  He has polled New Mexico for years and has polled this race four times.  

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A conservative Republican blog has reported a poll (and attached a memo about it) that looks great for Busby.  First, she leads Bilbray in the 6/6 special election to fill the remainder of Cunningham's term by 43-37.  Even better, among voters interested in the election, Busby's margain increases to 8 (47-39)!!  Better still, among voters who rated their interest a "10" on a 1-10 scale, Busby leads by an incredible 19 (56-35)!!

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Jerome posted a "Breaking Blue" story about a poll in OH-13 earlier today.  I know little about the district but it reminded me of a Stu Rothenberg report of last wek.  

Rothenberg listed the ten best Rep opportunities to win seats from the D's this year.  OH-13 was given "homorable mention" where he stated:  "[i]f wealthy shopping mall heiress/2004 14th District nominee Capri Cafaro wins the nomination, Republicans believe she has enough personal baggage for this race to catapult to the top of their takeover opportunity list." 
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspo t.com/

Based on this alone, I have to hope Cafaro loses.  We do not need to be on defense in another race.  Does anyone know much about Sutton and Sawyer?  Who do you support?    

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Francine Busby, the Democratic candidate for this open seat (with a special election set for 6/6) is a member of the Cardiff school board.  In 2004, a math teacher was arrested and charged with possessing child pornography and destroying evidence.  The school board had previously suspended the teacher when it learned that he was under investigation.  At the time, Busby had stated:  "He is a teacher who put in a lot of extra time.  He was always willing to lend a hand. I was shocked about the investigation."

Now, the NRCC has started to run a television ad, which states:  "Busby even praised a teacher reported to have child porn, saying he was 'always willing to lend a hand.'  That's dangerous."

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Today, the results of the count of most of the 10,000 or so uncounted provisional ballots in Tuesday's race were posted.  The current results are:

Busby     43.74
Bilbray   15.27
Roach     14.50

Here is a link:  http://www.sdvote.org/election/special.x ml

Busby's percentage went down slightly, and the difference between Bilbray and Roach increased very slightly.  

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Democratic challenger, state Attorney General Patsy Madrid, has released a poll taken by Dem polling outfit Lake Research Partners, conducted January 25-29.  It gives incumbent Republican Heather Wilson a lead of 44% to 43% with 13% undecided. (400 calls MOE + -4.9%).  Those surveyed gave Madrid a 62% positive job rating as AG and gave Wilson a 52% positive job approval rating. http://www.madridforcongress.com/node/51 3 Madrid's site has a link to the poll that would not work for me.  There is some discussion here http://joemonahansnewmexico.blogspot.com / as well.

This is a top-tier race that we must win to take back the house.  Nearly every opinion I have read calls this one a toss-up and this poll, along with the fundraising totals, confirms it.  Madrid joined the race in October and raised $432,000 in the 4th quarter, slightly more than Wilson.  Wilson has over $1 million cash on hand, however.  I have to think that Bill Richardson being on the ticket for re-election will assist Madrid as well.  

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