That's weak that those polls won't be public. Maybe the Wall Street Journal contract didn't cover them, so they won't be publicly released. I hope they do get released (I'm sure somebody with access will eventually let the cat out of the bag).
That's the USA/Gallup/CNN poll, which seems to be undercounting Dem voters from the Likely Voters category every time they do it. The Registered Voters number are similiar to Zogby's (Zogby has 49.6 Kerry, 49 Bush this go around-a near tie, just like this poll has a 45-45). Gallup is screwing up the Likely Voter model, IMHO. I've decided to ignore thier Likely Voter model and just trust thier Registered Voter one.
This gets brought up every time these polls come up. Basically, Zogby skews the results to account for these problems, at least in theory. Besides, with 75% of America being on-line, this problem is becoming less of one.
Another thing: It probably takes no more time (probably less) to fill out this survey than to answer questions read to you by somebody calling on the other end.
The only real problem with these are that it's self generated-it's a pull, not a push. But does that really skew one way or the other? I'm sure it skews towards people who are paying attention vs. the rest of America, but does that indicate how they are voting? (probably undecided is less than usual, though)
In any case, Zogby knows what the heck he is doing (he is credited with being the only person that got 2000 right), and the results so far have been near other, more traditional polls taken at the same time. His polls were also the first that made it obvious Tennesse was in play, which was later proven true in a SUSA poll which had Bush up by only 2 (easily within the MoE, and SUSA seems to swing GOP).
Of course the ads won't stop (unless the government actually finds they are connected to the Bush campaign, which isn't bloody likely). The point is the attack is now against them (and by inference, Bush), instead of against Kerry. This what Clinton did, by redirecting the public's hatred towards Ken Starr and away from himself. It's not a winning strategy, but it's better than all others-it amounts to a tie to slight net loss, as opposed to the bleeding that you would get if it was left unanswered. Dems in the past have tended to ignore attacks-the party has learned you have to fight fire with gasoline sometimes.
Hmmm...first time I heard the Osama's-kid-is-the-one-recording-the-audio-tapes theory, although it makes perfect sense. The Osama-is-in-poor-physical-shape (like maybe he lost a limb or is confined to bed) makes sense too. The fact that no new video tapes have appeared for quite awhile does make you wonder.
In any case, if the son-is-recording-the-tapes theory is true, then this is good news for Kerry-because it is extremely unlikely that anybody on our side will every find Bin Laden's body, so Bush will not be able to capture him (or his remains) and wave him in front of the cameras on Halloween.
It'll go away, I think (especially as it's debunked). If this came out in mid-October, it could affect the outcome. As for now, nah. The trend is still quite pro-Kerry-and it's even more pro-Kerry in the battleground states.
The point is that the states tend to move in groups-and the states in play are tending towards Kerry.
Couple points from his current analysis:
The rank order is currently (brackets indicates states statistically in play at the 20-80% level):
D <- WA/NH/PA/OR/MI/MN/FL/ME/IA/NM(95-100%) - WI - [TN - WV - OH] - MO - AR - AZ - NV - CO(0-5%) -> R
That is, right now, WA/NH/PA/OR/MI/MN/FL/ME/IA/NM are in Kerry's column for sure, and only CO is in Bush's column for sure (CO in theory isn't even supposed to be in play for Kerry at all-neither is TN, which currently has 69% chance to go for Kerry).
He also made this comment:
Given where polls have fluctuated in the last few months, for Kerry to get 270 EV a key event will be winning FL, OH or MO. Even without any of those states, a second permutation with high relative likelihood is to win TN and WV.
No wonder he has Kerry currently with a 99.93% chance of winning. Of course, Bush still has his convention and the debates, yatta yatta. But I truely think that, barring extreme events (real of faked terrorist attack, Osama being caputred, election fraud), Kerry is a near shoe-in. And this is after, let's face it, Kerry so far has run a mediocre campaign at best. It's still ABB, and ABB is leading.
No, if Bin Laden really does want Bush to stay for another four years (and I think he does), he would announce that he's supporting Kerry, wouldn't he? Bin Laden is the anti-endorcement-you want him backing the other guy, and I'm sure he knows it.
Yeah, SUSA is run by a bunch of morons, as far as I can tell. This is the same group that ran a poll in May that had Kerry only up by 1 in California.
Not including those two SUSA polls (and a third one by them in July that had Kerry up by 12), there have been 13 other polls in California since February. They all had Kerry up between 8 and 18 points. The six previous polls all had Kerry with a double digit lead; within those six were one that had him with a 16 point lead, and one (the most recent before this one) with an 18 point lead.