Septemember 11th polling bounce for Bush
by Geotpf, Mon Sep 13, 2004 at 09:39:19 AM EDT
Rasmussen's presidential tracking report showed interesting results for September 11th. This poll is a rotating poll, showing the average of calls placed the previous three evenings. Look at September 12th, the first day with Sept. 11 in it-a huge jump over the previous day, by almost a point (which probably means that Bush was polling 3 points higher than normal on 9/11).
But here's something else interesting-it was completely gone on todays poll results, even though Sept. 11 is included in today's results. Bush is only leading by .8 points in today's poll! I'm guessing a combination of the North Korea explosion, news about Bush's guard service, and bad news from Iraq have hurt Bush. Kerry was almost certain to have been ahead in yesterday's calls alone.
Basically, ignoring the artificial 9/11 bounce, Kerry is ahead. I am predicting that once calls placed on Sept. 11 fall out, Kerry will be ahead in this poll again. This will happen on the results provided on Sept. 15, this Wednesday, which will have the results of calls placed on Sept. 12th, 13th, and 14th.
Kerry will completely have erased Bush's SBVFT/convention/Sept. 11th bounce in this poll on Sept. 15 and be in positive territory again.
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