More Bush 2000 voters are defecting than Gore 2000 voters
by Geotpf, Wed Sep 08, 2004 at 02:47:17 PM EDT
I posted this poll over in the "The World Likes Kerry" thread...but they asked a question of American voters I haven't seen much in other polls: Are you going to vote differently this time than last?
They asked (in two seperate polls, one in July, one in August)people who voted for Bush (and Gore) in 2000 who they would vote this time.
In July, 10% of Bush 2000 voters said they will vote for Kerry, and 14% were unsure. Just 4% of Gore voters in July said they will vote for Bush this time, with 10% unsure.
In August, 14% of Bush 2000 voters said they will vote for Kerry, with 12% unsure. 5% of Gore voters in August said they were voting for Bush this time, with 9% unsure.
So, in the August poll, only 74% of Bush 2000 voters are certain to do so again-while 86% of Gore voters are positive about going with Kerry.
I have always believed that there were Bush voters who changed thier minds, but very few who went the other way. This proves this theory, at least in my mind.
Since the last election was, basically, a tie, this means Bush loses. There is no way around this, unless Rove really is able to get out more of his base (or he cheats)-and a higher percentage than we are able (I expect higher turn out by both sides this time, at least in their bases-some moderate or fiscal conservatives may be turned off by Bush, so that may hurt him, too). Plus Nader is weaker this time-a few of his votes will bleed into the Kerry column.
Logically, Kerry is a shoo-in. Still, we must pretend he actually is down by ten and campaign accordingly, even if he, in fact, is winning.
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