The latest ABC/Washington Post poll is out, and it underscores the dynamics we have seen in this race since sometime in August.  

http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit /1050a1ElectionYear-Out.pdf

The poll

Hillary Clinton 49
Barack Obama 26
John Edwards 12
Bill Richardson 2
Joe Biden 3
Chris Dodd 1
Dennis Kucinich 2
Mike Gravel 0
Other (vol.) 0
None (vol.) 1
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 1
No opinion 2

Trendlines:

9/30/07

Hillary Clinton 53
Barack Obama 20
John Edwards 13
Bill Richardson 3
Joe Biden 2
Chris Dodd 0
Dennis Kucinich 1
Mike Gravel 0
Other (vol.) 0
None (vol.) 4
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 1
No opinion 2

9/7/07

Hillary Clinton 41
Barack Obama  27
John Edwards 14
Bill Richardson 2
Joe Biden 3
Chris Dodd 1
Dennis Kucinich 2
Mike Gravel 1
Other (vol.) 1
None (vol.) 4
Wouldn't vote (vol.) 0
No opinion 5

---------------------------------------- -----------------------

Internals

19. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) Regardless of who you may support, who do you think
(ITEM) - (Clinton) (Obama) or (Edwards)?

11/1/07 - Summary Table

All Any 2 None No
Clinton Obama Edwards (vol.) (vol.) (vol.) op.

a. is the strongest leader 59 24 12 1 1 1 3

b. is the most honest and trustworthy 34 29 18 5 2 7 5

c. has the best chance of getting elected president
in November 2008 62 15 14 1 2 1 5

d. best reflects the core values of the Democratic party 44 25 21 2 1 2 5

e. is closest to you on the issues 46 27 18 * 2 2 5

f. is best able to handle the situation in Iraq 50 23 16 2 1 3 4

g. is best able to handle the situation involving Iran 52 22 14 2 * 4 7

Analysis of internals

Hillary Clinton leads on every internal measured.   The most important internals here are, in order:

1. Electability. Clinton is seen as the most likely Democratic candidate to win in Nov. 2008 against any GOPer.  This internal is not close at all.  62% of all Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents in this poll believe that Clinton has the best chance of being selected president in Nov. 2008.  Obama is seen as that most electable Democratic candidate by only 15%, well below his overall polling performance.  Edwards is seen as the most electable by 14%, pretty much in line with his overall polling performance.

2.  Situation in Iran.   Clinton scores big on this internal.  Apparently the developing situtation in Iran has added another strong point into Clinton's internal numbers, yet one more reason to vote for her.  She is seen by a full 52% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents as best able to "handle the situtation involving Iran." Oly 22% believe that about Obama, 14% name Edwards.  Clinton holds an almost 4 to 1 advantage over Edwards on handling Iran, a better than 2.5 to 1 advantage over Obama.

3. Situation in Iraq.  Democrats and Deocratic-leaning Independents are obviously satisfied with Clinton's plan for troop withdrawal from Iraq, with a full 50% naming Clinton as the best candidate to "handle the situation in Iraq." Obama comes in at 23%, Edwards at 16%.  A better than 3 to 1 advantage over Edwards, a better than 2 to 1 advantage over Obama here.  

4. Hillary Clinton scores big when it comes to who of the candidate is "closest to you (poll responders) on the issues." 46% have Hillary Clinton as "closest" on the issues important to them, 27% see Obama that way, 16% name Edwards. A 20% advantage over Obama and a 30% advantage over Edwards on being the most in sync with Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents on the issues they care about is proof that Clinton has connected, particularly with the middle class, whereas the other candidates have so far failed to make their cases on the issues.

5. Strongest leader. This is also a very important, decisive, internal.  It goes right at the Commander-in-Chief threshold question, the readiness to be president.    Here Clinton scores it out of the ballpark.  59% of responders see her as the strongest leader of all candidates. Only 24% name Obama as that leader, Edwards is at 12%.   An almost 2.5 to 1 advantage over Obama and a 5 to 1 advantage over Edwards.  If the other candidates are not perceived as stronger leaders compared to Clinton (in fact, lag behind strongly) how can they make a case for themselves as better suited for the presidency?  

6. Honest and trustworthy. Clinton wins here as well.  34% (Clinton) to 29% (Obama) to 18% (Edwards).   To wit, Clinton has an almost 2 to 1 advantage over Edwards on who the most honest and trustworthy candidate is, which is in a way ironic, since Edwards has tried to make honesty and trustworthyness an issue.  It probably would have a chance to resonate better if more Democrats thought of Edwards as the most honest and trustworthy of all candidates at this point. Indeed, according to the data he is seen as the least honest and trustworthy of the 3 top-tier candidates.    

Clinton vs. GOPers

Here Clinton beats any GOP comers.

Fifty percent of Americans prefer Clinton, 46 percent Giuliani. (That compares with 51-43 percent a month ago; in this poll slightly more, 29 percent, identify themselves as Republicans, vs. a 2007 average of 25 percent.) Pitting Clinton against McCain produces a 52-43 percent contest, while her lead grows against either Thompson (56-40 percent) or Romney (57-39 percent).

Issues advantages Democrats have over Republicans

The Democrats have smaller leads on taxes and immigration, and run evenly with the Republicans in trust to handle terrorism, Bush's cornerstone issue.

Trust to handle:

Democrats Republicans
Health care 54% 29%
Iraq 50% 34%
Economy 50% 35%
Taxes 46% 40%
Immigration 42% 35%
Terrorism 41% 42%

On the 3 most important issues imaginable we have strong advantages:  Health Care, Iraq and the Economy.   Right now we have advantages on Taxes and Immigration as well.  Only on the broader question of "terrorism" are we even with the GOP.  This bodes well for the upcoming year as we get into the 2008 election season.  If these preferences don't change over the course of this next year we may see a blowout election favoring the Democratic party in 2008.  

Methodology

This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 29-Nov. 1, 2007, among a random national sample of 1,131 adults, including an oversample of African Americans for a total of 203 black respondents (weighted back to their correct share of the national population). The results have a three-point error margin for the full sample, four points for the sample of 598 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and 4.5 points for the sample of 436 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, Pa.