Latest polls in IA, NH, SC. Clinton leads, Edwards respectable in SC
by georgep, Tue May 29, 2007 at 10:17:41 AM EDT
The polls
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/
May 29, 2007 - Presidential Preferences
Democrats IA NH SC
Biden 3% 3% 2%
Clark 1% 1% 1%
Clinton 31% 34% 34%
Dodd 2% 3% 1%
Edwards 25% 18% 30%
Gravel 1% 1% -
Kucinich 4% 2% 2%
Obama 11% 15% 18%
Richardson 8% 9% 1%
Undecided 14% 14% 11%
ARG trendlines
Iowa
Likely Democratic Caucus Goers Dec 2006 Jan 2007 Feb 2007 Mar 2007 Apr 2007 May 2007
Biden 2% 2% 2% 2% 6% 3%
Clark 1% 2% 1% 2% - 1%
Clinton 31% 35% 31% 34% 23% 31%
Dodd 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Edwards 20% 18% 27% 33% 27% 25%
Gravel 1% - - - - 1%
Kerry 2% ni ni ni ni ni
Kucinich 5% 2% 1% 1% 2% 4%
Obama 10% 14% 23% 16% 19% 11%
Richardson 1% 1% 1% 1% 5% 8%
Vilsack 17% 12% ni ni ni ni
Undecided 8% 13% 14% 10% 16% 14%
New Hampshire
Likely Democratic Primary Voters Dec 2006 Jan 2007 Feb 2007 Mar 2007 Apr 2007 May 2007
Biden 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3%
Clark 2% 2% 2% 1% - 1%
Clinton 27% 39% 38% 37% 37% 34%
Dodd 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3%
Edwards 18% 13% 19% 20% 26% 18%
Gravel - - - - - 1%
Kerry 6% ni ni ni ni ni
Kucinich 4% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Obama 21% 19% 20% 23% 14% 15%
Richardson 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 9%
Vilsack 1% 1% ni ni ni ni
Undecided 17% 21% 16% 12% 15% 14%
South Carolina
Likely Democratic Primary Voters Dec 2006 Feb 2007 Apr 2007 May 2007
Biden 2% 2% 3% 2%
Clark 2% 1% 1% 1%
Clinton 34% 36% 36% 34%
Dodd - 1% 1% 1%
Edwards 31% 20% 18% 30%
Gravel - - - -
Kerry 3% ni ni ni
Kucinich 2% 1% 3% 2%
Obama 10% 25% 24% 18%
Richardson 1% 1% 1% 1%
Vilsack - ni ni ni
Undecided 15% 14% 13% 11%
ARG's short analysis
Women likely primary voters/caucus goers continue to give Hillary Clinton the edge in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.
My analysis
With this poll the Iowa race tightens even more. Now in the aggregate Edwards leads by only 3%, obviously a rapidly shrinking advantage over Clinton. This latest Iowa poll represents a turnaround of a full 10% in favor of Clinton, resulting in her 6% lead in this poll.
She also does very well in New Hampshire here. While she remains basically constant at 34%, Edwards ends up losing support in NH with his numbers shrinking by 8%. That ends up padding Clinton's NH margin to 16% over Edwards.
In South Carolina this poll sees Edwards coming on quite strong. Clinton leads with 34%, but Edwards is close on her trail here with 30%.
Barack Obama trails both Clinton and Edwards in all 3 states with rather disappointing numbers. In Iowa he gets 11%, in New Hampshire he gets 15%, South Carolina sees him with only 18% support.
The Republican candidates Republicans IA NH SC Brownback 3% 1% 1%
Gilmore 1% - 1%
Giuliani 23% 21% 23%
Gingrich 8% 4% 6%
Hagel 2% 1% 1%
Huckabee 2% 1% 1%
Hunter - - -
McCain 25% 30% 32%
Pataki - - -
Paul - - -
Romney 16% 23% 10%
Tancredo 2% - 1%
F Thompson 6% 3% 13%
T Thompson 2% 1% 1%
Undecided 10% 16% 11%
Analysis of Republican candidate's showing McCain is coming on very strong in this poll trifecta. He leads in all 3 states. Romney has a good showing in New Hampshire, where he is now second to McCain, 7 points behind. Giuliani comes in third in this poll. Giuliani is second in IA and SC at this point. F. Thompson is not doing as well in IA and NH, pulling in only 6% in IA and 3% in NH, although he gets 13% support in SC.
Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards (all tags)
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myDD - skin
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