What exactly ARE the union member's feelings about our candidates?  Who do they prefer?   Common wisdom would show Edwards, but is that really true?  

Gallup set out to test that question.  Their findings are interesting:

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=28 738

September 20, 2007

Clinton as Dominant Among Democratic Union Members as Non-Members

Democratic union members' preferences differ little from those of broader party

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's latest poll finds Hillary Clinton maintaining the better-than-20-percentage-point lead for the Democratic Party's 2008 presidential nomination that she has enjoyed since early August. Combined data from recent nomination preference polls shows that her dominance extends to a key Democratic constituency -- labor union members. Even though John Edwards has experienced some success in securing labor union endorsements, Clinton has a substantial lead over both Barack Obama and Edwards among Democratic union members. Generally speaking, Edwards does only slightly better among union members than non-members, while the opposite is true for Obama. Clinton's support is strong and similar among Democrats regardless of their union status.    

The finding here is that amongst labor union members there is no appreciable difference in the support of our Democratic candidates when compared to the general population.  That stands in stark contrast to some of the claims that have been made here that rank-and-file union members would actually prefer someone else over Clinton.

First, the latest national numbers:

Gallup's latest poll, conducted Sept. 14-16, finds 47% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents nationwide naming Clinton as their first choice for the 2008 presidential nomination. Obama is second at 25%, 22 points behind Clinton. Edwards is in third place; his 11% showing in the current poll is down from 16% in the prior poll and is his worst showing in any poll since a 10% reading in March. All other candidates for the Democratic nomination are at 5% or less.  

A 22% gap between Clinton and Obama shown here.

The data show that 45% of Democratic union members favor Clinton for the nomination, nearly identical to her 46% support among non-union members. Obama does slightly worse among union members (19%) than he does among non-members (26%). Even with significant union backing, Edwards' support is only slightly higher among union members (17%) than non-members (13%). The net effect is that Obama (19%) and Edwards (17%) essentially tie for second among union members, but both are well behind Clinton. All other Democrats are at 4% or below among union members.

When JUST union members are asked about their preferences, Clinton actually EXTENDS her national lead.  The gap between Clinton and Obama grows to 26%, she has a 28% advantage over Edwards amongst labor-union members.  

Favorables

The three leading Democratic candidates are viewed fairly similarly among Democratic union members -- 77% have a favorable view of Clinton, while 72% view Obama positively and 71% do the same for Edwards. Opinions of Clinton are similar among Democratic union members and non-members, but Edwards and Obama are viewed more positively by union members than non-members aligned with the party. This may merely result from union members being more likely to be familiar with Obama and Edwards than are non-union members, rather than having a greater appeal to Democrats with connections to organized labor.

Methodology

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 531 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 14-16, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±5 percentage points.

Results for combined data from Gallup Polls conducted July 13-Sept. 16 are based on interviews with 2,472 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. For results based on this sample, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 284 Democratic union members, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 2,188 Democratic union non-members, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 453 union members, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

Conclusion

It looks quite clear that rank-and-file union members support Clinton about the same as the general population does, which is to convey that they support her very strongly.  While Edwards' showing amongst union menbers is a little better than his overall showing nationally, it is still showing a full 28% behind Clinton.   As could have been surmised by Obama's relative lack of union gravitas and union endorsements, his support amongst union members falls below his general Democratic support to almost a tie with Edwards.   I would say that this survey result debunks the often repeated claim that in regards to Clinton's labor-union endorsements thus far some "union bosses" may like Clinton and force their members into an endorsement of her.  The opposite of that theme is actually true.

 Reality is a good eye opener, courtesy of Gallup, your friendly neighborhood polling firm.   :-)