Boston Globe poll:

http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pd f/bg_2007-nov11.pdf

The poll's horserace numbers

Clinton 35%, OBama 21%, Edwards 15%, Richardson 10%, Other 8%

No previous Boston Globe poll is available for trendlines

Numbers analysis

In this poll Obama is right below his aggregated NH average of 23.5%.  Clinton's just below her aggregated averages of 36.8%.  Edwards slightly outperforms his aggregate of 13.5%.  

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democrat ic_primary-194.html

The race is probably a ~15% race at this point, although a case can also be made that these latest polls represent a temporary dip that was also visible in national polling during the week before the debate and from which Clinton has recovered largely since.

Poll's demographic breakdown

party identification/affiliation

Democrat    Clinton 38% Obama 19% Edwards 16% Richardson 9% Other 7% Undecided 10%
Independent   Clinton 22% Obama 29% Edwards 7% Richardson 15% Other 13% Undecided 13%

Clinton leads strongly with Democrats (~20% margin to Obama,) a group Obama does not do very well with.  Obama shows a slight edge with Independents, a group Edwards does poorly in and Richardson scores particularly well with.  

age demographic

18 to 34    Clinton 32% Obama 24% Edwards 15% Richardson 3% Other 13% Undecided 13%
35 to 49 Clinton 38% Obama 22% Edwards 14% Richardson 9% Other 4% Undecided 13%
50 to 64 Clinton 32% Obama 19% Edwards 15% Richardson 15% Other 10% Undecided 9%
65 and over Clinton 41% Obama 23% Edwards 18% Richardson 5% Other 4% Undecided 10%

Clinton wins in every age demogroup.  She is particularly strong with the 35 to 49 age group, and the 65 and over age group.  Obama comes closest to Clinton in the 18-39 age demogroup, but still lags behind her by 8%.  Edwards' best age demogroup is the 65 and over group, in which he scores 18%.  65 and over is the age demogroup Richardson does particularly poorly in (only 5% support) as well as the 18-39 age group where he gets only 3%.  His best age demogroup is the 50-65 age group where he scores 15% and is exactly even with Edwards.  

gender

Male   Clinton 27% Obama 22% Edwards 18% Richardson 13% Other 11% Undecided 10%
Female   Clinton 40% Obama 20% Edwards 13% Richardson 8% Other 5% Undecided 13%

Clinton wins both the male and female domogroups, but there is an obvious gender gap in this poll.  

education demographics

High school or less   Clinton 54% Obama 9% Edwards 13% Richardson 13% Other 5% Undecided 7%
Some college Clinton 43% Obama 21% Edwards 13% Richardson 6% Other 8% Undecided 11%
College graduate Clinton 28% Obama 26% Edards 17% Richardson 10% Other 8% Undecided 11%
Post-graduate Clinton 27% Obama 24% Edwards 15% Richardson 11% Other 10% Undecided 13%

Clinton wins every education demogroup, but does best with the "some college" and "high school or less" groups.  

Internals/Issues

1. Leadership, Electability, Experience, Terrorism

strongest leader

Clinton 45%, Obama 17%, Edwards 8%, Richardson 6%, Other 6%, Undecided 17%.

most experience

Clinton 47%, Obama 4%, Edwards 10%, Richardson 14%, Other 10%, Undecided 14%.

best chance of beating GOPer in Nov. 2008

Clinton 53%, Obama 17%, Edwards 10%, Richardson 3%, Other 1%, Undecided 16%.

candidate best able to deal with terrorism

Clinton 27% Obama 12% Edwards 11% Richardson 14% Other 12% Und. 23%

Clinton has strong leads when it comes to questions related to experience, GE electability, dealing with terrorism and leadership.   The perception of Clinton being by far the best Democratic candidate for Nov. 2008 appears overwhelming in this particular poll, but so are Clinton's advantages when it comes to experience and leadership.  Obama and Edwards don't score too well on any of these questions, with Edwards scoring particularly poorly on the "strong leader" question and Obama scoring particularly poorly on the "experience" question.  

2. Needed change, most trustworthy, shown best judgement

Can bring needed change to the U.S.

Clinton 31%, Obama 26%, Edwards 13%, Richardson 5%, Other 7%, Undecided 18%

Most Trustworthy

Clinton 19%, Obama 26%, Edwards 19%, Richardson 8%, Other 7%, Undecided 20%

Has Shown Best Judgment

Clinton 24% Obama 24% Edwards 15% Richardson 10% Other 8% Und. 18%

In this group of internals the margins are narrower.  Clinton is considered the change candidate by a plurality of Democrats and Democratic leaning Independents by a 5% margin over Obama.  Obama scores 26% on this issue, which outpaces his overall showing in this poll by 5%.  Edwards is seen as the agent of change by 13%, 2% below his overall showing in this poll.  Richardson is seen as the agent of change by only 5% of respondents.  Obama is seen as the "most trustworthy" by 26% of respondents, 5% above his overall showing in the poll.  Clinton and Edwards are both at 19%, Richardson scores 8%.  On the issue of having "shown best judgement" Obama ties Clinton at 24% with Edwards at 15%.  

This represents the much narrower internals group with Obama outscoring Clinton and Edwards in one, the "most trustworthy" group, but the margin is fairly narrow.    

Issues most important to Democrats

Most Important Issue in DEM Primary - 1st Choice

1. Health Care 33%

1. Iraq 26%
   
2. Economy 15%
   
3. Other 10%
   
4. Social Security 5%
   
5. Taxes 4%
   
6. Illegal Immigration 2%
   
7. Iran 1%
   
8. Defeat Al Quaida 1%
   
9. Don't know 2%

The GOP race

NH GOP Primary - Likely GOP Primary Voters

Romney 32% Giuliani 20% McCain 17% Paul 7% Huckabee 5% Other 6% Und. 13%

This result is in line with the polling we have seen.  A double digit lead for Romney over Giuliani, the national poll leader.  McCain is hot on Romney's trails in this poll.  Ron Paul is now outpolling Huckabee for 4th in NH with 7% (which yesterday's Marist poll also showed.)  Fred Thompson is not named, which means his NH polling came in very low.

Poll methodology

Field Period: November 2 to November 7, 2007
Sample Size: 804 randomly selected NH Likely Primary Voters (RDD)
400 likely Democratic Primary Voters
404 likely Republican Primary Voters
Sampling Error: Total sample = 3.5+-%
Likely Democratic Voters = +- 4.9%
Likely Republican Voters = +/- 4.9%

Final Analysis

This is the second NH poll that was promised to us on Friday (I believe.)   I think it does not show quite the changed landscape in NH that the Friday announcement promised.  The internals are mostly good news for Clinton, particularly the type that most people usually base their votes on, such as leadership, experience,  perceived winner in the GE, best on issues, etc.  It is a strong double-digit lead for Clinton, but she does have to work on some of the more "emotional issues" to shore this state up and make it into a true firewall.