• comment on a post Chances of a Kerry Victory: 98%? over 7 years ago
    Re: Confidence
    It is important to remember however that it is standard practice to give confidence intervals assuming only random error--NOT systematic error such as would come from underrepresentation of people with cellphones or imperfections in deciding who a "likely voter" is.

    Random error is what prevents you from getting sixes exactly 1/6 of the time when you roll perfectly balanced dice.  Systematic error would happen if the die is loaded.

  • comment on a post Chances of a Kerry Victory: 98%? over 7 years ago
    Re: Nice work.
    That does seem contradictory.  If the 50th percentile is above 270, then by definition the probability of being above 270 is > 50%.  I think the 279 is a typo since the other 3 numbers and the mention of a threshold effect in the text are all consistent with each other but not with 279.

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