Facing a president with critically low approval ratings and a Republican-controlled Congress that hasn't achieved a major legislative "victory" in years, Democrats are understandably enthusiastic about our chances in this fall's elections. However, the road to Democratic majority is still a steep one. There is a danger of presuming that things are going too well, for down that path lies the risk of not doing enough to ensure victory in the Fall.

Over the next few days, I will be considering the various groups of campaigns being fought across the country. None of this information is new, but I believe that approaching it systematically is important to understanding the where the effort to establish a Democratic majority stands. Today, let's take a look at the race for control of the United States Senate.

The United States Senate

The most tantalizing government body up for grabs in 2006 is the Senate; unfortunately, it will also be the hardest body for Democrats to win. The class of Senators up for re-election in 2006 (Class I, if anyone cares), is the only class of Senators that already has a Democratic majority. Democrats control 17 of the 33 seats, having swung four seats away from the Republicans in the 2000 elections. Capturing another six seats, the number necessary to achieve majority when caucusing with the left-leaning independent who will be elected this year in Vermont, will be a challenge. However, it is within the realm of possibility.

The map below indicates the status of the 33 Senate races across the nation. Data from the most recent polls in every race, spanning different polling companies, has been averaged to produce a "sense" of where each campaign stands.

States in dark red are those where the Republicans enjoy a solid lead. States in bright red are those where the Republican candidate (or presumptive Republican candidate) has the edge, but the race could slip away from him. States in magenta are the "swing" states where there is presently no clear leader. States in bright blue are those that are presently leaning towards the Democratic candidate. States in dark blue are those where the Democratic candidate appears to enjoy an insurmountable lead. Vermont is purple because the clear leader is an independent.

Please note that I have intentionally taken a "pessimistic" outlook, quicker to assign "lean" status to Democratic-led races than to Republican ones, because I think that's more logical for strategic purposes. It's better to be driven to work too hard than not enough.

Of their 15 up-for-election seats, Republican incumbents appear to be headed towards inevitable victory in eight: John Ensign in Nevada, Jon Kyl in Arizona, Orrin Hatch in Utah, Craig Thomas in Wyoming, Kay Bailey Hutchison in Texas (sucks, doesn't it?), Trent Lott in Mississippi, Richard Lugar in Indiana and Olympia Snowe in Maine. Short of an unexpected Democratic tidal wave, all eight of these Senators should win re-election. Kay Bailey Hutchison's numbers have been drooping of late, but she's still above 50% and still 20 points ahead of Barbara Ann Radnofsky. Until that changes, she has to be considered a "safe" bet for re-election. Along with the 40 Republicans not up for election this year, these eight seats put their party two seats away from majority -- hopefully that illustrates the severity of the challenge faced by the Democrats.

Two Republican seats are potentially in danger of slipping into "swing" status: the seat being vacated by Bill Frist in Tennessee and George Allen's seat in Virginia. Various Republican candidates are running to follow Frist in Tennessee, with Ed Bryant and Bob Corker appearing to be the most likely potential nominees. Neither has been able to open up a large margin over popular Democratic Congressman Harold Ford. With no candidate polling in a majority, the charismatic Ford could pull this one out in a Democratic-leaning year -- if his candidacy isn't grounded by a familial scandal. In Virginia, George Allen seems less vulnerable than the Republicans in Tennessee, but he is still polling terribly for an incumbent; his numbers have repeatedly dipped below 50% in surveys, a clear indication of jeopardy.

Of the Democrats up for reelection, 11 appear to be coasting to victory: Dianne Feinstein in California, Jeff Bingaman in New Mexico, Kent Conrad in North Dakota, Ben Nelson in Nebraska, Herb Kohl in Wisconsin, Bill Nelson in Florida, Robert Byrd in West Virginia, Tom Carper in Delaware, Hillary Clinton in New York, Edward Kennedy is Massachusetts and Joe Lieberman in Connecticut. Lieberman, of course, is facing a stiff primary challenge from Ned Lamont. If Lamont wins and Lieberman doesn't enter the race as an independent, Lamont will likely walk away with the general. If Lieberman wins the primary, and he leads in current polls, he will win in November. If the race devolves into a three-way general, all bets are off. Hawaii Senator Daniel Akaka appears to be on course to lose the Democratic primary. So far, no Republican has entered the race, and regardless of whom the Democrats put up, he is likely to win in November. On top of these twelve seats, Democrats have also opened up a stunning lead over incumbent Republican Senator Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania. Bob Casey appears on target to win handidly there, giving the Democrats 13 strong leads nationwide. Combined with the 27 Democrats not up for reelection, these thirteen seats put the party at 80% of the way to majority.

Three Democrats are facing tough elections this Fall (Maria Cantwell in Washington, Robert Menendez in New Jersey and Debbie Stabenow in Michigan), and Democratic retirements in Minnesota and Maryland could throw those seats into potential jeopardy, as well. However, in all five of these states, Democratic candidates presently hold leads ranging from around 4.5% (Cantwell over Republican challenger Mike McGavick) to close to 10% (Stabenow over Republican Michael Bouchard). Given the Democratic trend evident in nationwide opinion polls, there's likely enough wind at the backs of our Democratic nominees in these states to get the job done on election day.

The most exciting races in 2006 will be held in the four "swing" states where neither party has been able to demonstrate a clear advantage. In Montana, Democratic nominee Jon Tester is holding onto a slim advantage over embattled Republican incumbent Conrad Burns. In Missouri, unpopular Republican incumbent Jim Talent has proved unable to push his support above 50%, and in recent polls has been trailing former gubernatorial candidate and Democratic nominee Claire McCaskill -- averaging the poll numbers in this race produces a razor-tight 0.5% lead for McCaskill. Polling numbers in Ohio have been shifting wildly. The latest Rasmussen poll shows an advantage for Republican incumbent Michael DeWine, while SurveyUSA and Zogby report solid leads for Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown. Closest of all is Rhode Island, where Lincoln Chaffee, who inherited his seat from his late father in 1999, has now dipped below 40% in the latest survey, trailing Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse by one point. Averaging the most recent polls together gives Chaffee a lead, but it is a slight 1.3 percent.

The Road to Majority

If the election were held today, based on the numbers available, Democrats would pick up four seats in the United States Senate -- a major swing, but insufficient to achieve majority. We would capture Republican seats in Montana, Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania, reducing the Republicans to a 51 to 48 to 1 margin in the Senate.

 SeatedSolidLeaningSwingTotal

Republicans4082151

Democrats27135348

Independent01001





To win a majority, Democrats will also need to take out Lincoln Chaffee in Rhode Island and capture a victory in one of the two Republican-leaning states, Tennesse and Virginia. One of these tasks will be difficult, the other even more so.

Defeating Senator Lincoln Chaffee is one of those terrible situations where you have to run hard against a candidate who isn't really all that "wrong" on many issues. One of the most moderate Republicans, Chaffee has voted with progressives against nonsense such as the flag desecration and gay marriage amendments. Unfortunately, his moderate philosophy is part of why he must be defeated. Chaffee's political positioning serves as a fig leaf that hides the true nature of the modern Republican Party. Defeating Chaffee, and other Rockefeller Republicans like him is a necessary part of redefining the Republican Party as an out-of-step, socially-backward, Southern-dominated party. For political and tactical reasons, the defeat of Lincoln Chaffee should be the top priority for the national Democratic Party.

There's a possibility that the Republicans will take Chaffee out for us. Recent polling shows him barely leading a primary challenger, Stephen Laffey, who is far to the right of the Rhode Island mainstream. Voters have until August 12 to register to vote in the September 12 primary. Democrats may want to consider jumping the fence in this primary -- putting Laffey over the top in September will send another Democrat to the Senate in January.

Defeating Chaffee would reduce the Republicans to a 50-seat delegation, forcing Vice President Dick Cheney to stay on hand throughout the last two years of the Bush Administration to break potential ties. This shackling of a White House power broker would certainly be useful politically, but not as useful as an outright Democratic majority in the Senate. To get that majority, Democrats will have to hold the states we presently lead in, sweep the swing states, and drag one other state into our column. Right now, the most likely candidate, the state that may well decide which party controls the 110th United States Senate, is Tennessee.

How the race in Tennessee takes shape will be determined by who the Republicans nominate. Over the next few months, the Volunteer State and the four swing states should be ground zero for Democratic efforts to retake the Senate, with secondary efforts focused at preserving Democratic leanings in the five vulnerable states. Winning Tennessee is, perhaps, an outside shot, but as of today it's the best shot available for achieving a Democratic Senate.