Response to "60-seats possible"

by fakes seizures, Mon Aug 06, 2007 at 07:27:20 AM EDT

I think these seats are really possible:

Wyoming (special election) AND regular
Colorado
Idaho
New Mexico
Minnesota
North Carolina
Kentucky
Virginia
Maine
New Hampshire
Oregon

That is 12. People forgot both seats in WY are up in 2008. Add in these new fights:

Alaska
Texas
Mississippi
Nebraska (if Hagel retires)
Oklahoma

If the right people run in these states these are too:

Georgia (Chambliss is at 50 approval)
Kansas (approval 52)

That totals 19 possible races out of 22. Subtract only losing LA, considering Iowa is trending blue  (first control of house and senate in I think about 15 years) and you cannot really attack a guy who is recovering from brain surgery (if he runs).

And remember Republicans usually dump money into the presidential race and are being out raised 2-1 in both houses.  I think this could be an electoral shift on the scale of 1932 or 1980 (since 1958 was an off year) if we get a movement building presidential candidate (Obama or Edwards)

Finally the increase in young voter turnout, and call me crazy I think that a plus-12 in the senate and and 50-60 in the house are possible, given the right conditions--which are shaping up (we are now trusted more on just about everything and evangelicals have taken up enviroment and poverty as moral issues)

Tags: 2006 elections, 60 seats, House 2006, Senate 2006 (all tags)

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Re: Response to "60-seats possible"

Too much wishful thinking! I think that ME, NH, MN, OR are real pickups with retirement watches in VA and NE. As for NM and AK, both Domenici and Stevens will stay in office. As for NC, possible and KY, McConnell has ALOT OF CASH, defeating him in a state that went 60% for Bush won't be easy.

by American1989 2007-08-06 07:59AM | 0 recs
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Re: Response to "60-seats possible"

Alaska can be competitive if Begich runs.  He won his mayoral race 55%-44% or something like that.  Anchorage is like 2/5 of the population, his name is firmiliar with older people (His dad was a representative before he died in a plane crash).  

Don't put it off the table until Begich Declines.  

I do think Domenici is wishful thinking.  We need a poll to see how he does against a generic Democrat, but I don't think we have a serious challenger to retire him.  

Kentucky had some big swings % wise from 2004 to 2006.  It wouldn't go 60% for Bush again.  McConnell's app/disapp numbers reflect that.  That cash will probably go to comrades he is trying to save too, so don't count on all of it being there.  

VA-GOP is expecting Jon Warner to retire.  It almost seems imminent if you take that and his fundraising into account.  

NC we just need a real challenger, some money and bam.  Liddy Dole's app/disapp numbers are lacking for her sake.  She is also brittle, old, and misplaced... (Barely goes to NC, she lives in DC)

Last but not least.... You forgot Colorado.

by JeremiahTheMessiah 2007-08-06 08:11AM | 0 recs
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Re: Response to "60-seats possible"

Don't worry about Senator Harkin.  He was re-elected 54-44 in 2002, a bad year for Democrats, against a popular challenger in Rep. Ganske.  He hasn't had a close election since 1996.  I don't even think there is a candidate announced against him yet.

The only shame of this election cycle is that the GOP probably won't waste their money dumping it into Iowa trying to unseat Harkin.

by IowaProgressive 2007-08-06 12:43PM | 0 recs
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Re: Response to "60-seats possible"

And don't forget that Chet Culver won 54-45 amid the CIETC scandal. And I have talked to Harkin a couple of times at various events, but couldn't get a meeting this year when I went to Washington with the DM Partnership, from that I think he has even shifted left recently which bodes well.

by fakes seizures 2007-08-06 01:30PM | 0 recs
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finally, they gave up on Harkin

I was a little worried in 2002, I admit, but he won handily.

Every time I hear a radio ad featuring plastic surgeon Greg Ganske, I smile knowing that he is in his suburban office while Harkin is in the Senate.

by desmoinesdem 2007-08-06 01:32PM | 0 recs
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you are too confident about SD

If Johnson isn't back in his Senate office by early next year, I imagine people will start to wonder how he can represent the state effectively. The GOP wouldn't have to do much attacking, because the state leans so heavily Republican.

by desmoinesdem 2007-08-06 01:31PM | 0 recs
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Re: you are too confident about SD

Johnson's wife said that he should be back by the new year.  And I think any attacks on him would be viewed the same way as attacks on Elizabeth Edwards were. And I agree that Harkin is safe, just like I think that Grassley is safe. But here is a question, could Chet Culver run against Grassley in 2010, who defeated  his father?

by fakes seizures 2007-08-06 02:42PM | 0 recs

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