Prop 4 and 8 predictions
by esconded, Sat Nov 01, 2008 at 07:11:31 PM EDT
The other social proposition on the California ballot, Proposition 4, which requires parental notification for a minor's abortion, is leading by just 46-44 in the latest Field poll. That's a tightening from 49-41 a month ago.
I think Prop 4 will be defeated, but by a closer margin than in 2005 (5.6%) and 2006 (about 7%). I also think 8 will fail but by only one or two percent (maybe even closer).
In California, there will be a lot of ballots that won't be counted on Election Night and the following morning. These are late absentee and provisional ballots. Results don't have to be
certified until December 2, four weeks after the election.
During the primary, there were over a million of late ballots; there could be 1.5 to 2 million of these. So if the results are
very close on these propositions, you may want to bookmark
the Secretary of State's website:
What's your prediction on these two propositions? Take the poll below.
UPDATE: The latest ad from Yes on 8 blames gay marriage on "San Francisco" judges. I didn't know that--it's another lie. A large part of the Yes on 8 strategy is running against San Francisco.